The Metropolitan: Is Trevor Bauer the next Cespedes?
Exclusive: A former Mets exec brings us inside the front office pursuit of a flawed talent
Good Morning,
With the football season ending, we’re officially in the home stretch until baseball begins in nine days, when pitchers and catchers will report to camp.
In the meantime, we have a special edition today with former Mets front office executive and Braves assistant GM Adam Fisher pulling back the curtain and giving an insider’s perspective on the fallout from the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes.
But first, we start with the news.
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
🍎 SIGNING: Super Bowl Sunday started with a baseball move as the Mets reportedly agreed to a deal with outfielder Albert Almora Jr.
DEPTH: While Almora is known for a sure glove in centerfield, it’s debatable how much of an improvement he is over another Mets reserve outfielder, Guillermo Heredia, due to Almora’s anemic offense.
FLEXIBILITY: Since both Almora and Heredia have a minor league option remaining, the Mets can be flexible in who makes the big league club. Although, a corresponding 40-man roster move will eventually need to be made to add Almora.
UPSIDE: Almora was a top prospect in the Cubs’ system, drafted 6th overall in 2012, and he is still only 26 (Heredia is 30). Almora only had 34 plate appearances last season, so it’s hard to tell whether some tweaks to his swing could help him find his rhythm at the plate over a larger sample of games (check back for a video breakdown later this week).
MEANWHILE: Another familiar defense-first outfielder, former Met Juan Lagares, agreed to a minor league deal with the Angels over the weekend. He’s coming off an MVP performance in the 2021 Caribbean Series.
🗣 BRADLEY WATCH: There’s a lot of chatter coming from different directions on whether the Mets are still interested in centerfield free agent Jackie Bradley Jr., and a lot of it is contextual.
IN OR OUT? After Mike Puma of the NY Post tweeted that the addition of Almora didn’t necessarily mean the Mets were out on Bradley, Deesha Thosar of the NY Daily News reported the Mets were in fact out on him. Meanwhile, Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe says the Mets aren’t out on the centerfielder and “the two sides remain very much engaged.” The likely reason behind this confusion?
DH UNCERTAINTY: Joel Sherman of the NY Post wrote a column in which he said the Mets front office and members of the coaching staff had met with JBJ in the past week, and if the DH somehow returns this season (meaning Dominic Smith wouldn’t have to play the outfield), Bradley could still be an option.
🛒 STILL SHOPPING: Jon Heyman reported on Sunday the Mets are not done shopping, with starting pitching, depth and “maybe more” still on their agenda. Andy Martino of SNY also believes another signing is coming with “lots of balls in the air” right now.
📝 DONE DEAL? Bob Nightengale wasn’t the only person who thought the Mets had a deal with Bauer in the 24 hours leading up to the free agent pitcher’s decision to ultimately sign with the Dodgers.
Joel Sherman reported on Sunday: “A source said that Mets president Sandy Alderson, who has been involved with three organizations over the past four decades, felt he had never proceeded to this extent of negotiations and not finalized the deal.”
So maybe we should give Mr. Nightengale a break (or at least accept this apology):
And while we are on apologies…
📚ON THIS DATE IN 1994: February 8, 1994: Mets sign Rey Ordoñez after winning a lottery for the rights to the Cuban shortstop a few months earlier. He would go on to win 3 Gold Glove Awards in New York.
Losing Bauer: An Insider’s Perspective
By Adam Fisher, former Mets Senior Director of Baseball Operations & Braves Assistant GM
The baseball world was obviously captivated by Trevor Bauer’s imminent signing last week. But given the pitcher’s well-documented personal troubles, many fans have been asking what exactly the Mets were thinking in pushing hard to sign him.
As an educated observer, I can surmise that they were looking at Bauer similarly to how we looked at Yoenis Cespedes a few years ago when I was a member of the Mets front office: You’re pursuing a player that is flawed, but very talented and available for the right price.
With Cespedes, it’s fair to say we were aware early on of his personal issues that would burn us later, but we took the chance on the talent. Just like Francisco Lindor reportedly said that Bauer was a good teammate, people liked Ces, too. But in trading for (and re-signing) him, you knew there was a level of selfishness and disruptiveness that you’d have to manage as an organization.
How selfish was Cespedes? During the 2015 World Series, while his teammates gathered in the indoor batting cage in Kansas City to hear the advance scouting report from the hitting coaches, Cespedes laid just outside the cage alone on a couch smoking a cigarette. This is not some rumor I heard third-hand; I was observing all of it in person, since I had written the advance report myself.
His teammates didn’t care. They looked at him as a genetic marvel of enormous talent and were happy to have him on their side.
From a front office perspective, Cespedes and Bauer are similar in that you understand that the player has had conflicts in the past and marches to his own drummer, but you believe this can be contained and is worth managing. The player is extremely talented and you are a championship contending team that would be helped greatly by adding him. Players are people, and can be given second chances and the ability to evolve.
In this case, the Dodgers and Mets decided the risks were worth the reward. Talent is rare and the chance to get top talent at close to your preferred value even rarer. Can anyone remember a player of Bauer’s skill signing such a short-term deal, even if the AAV is enormous? (Remember, he and Gerrit Cole are the same age.)
With a high asking price and personal baggage, Bauer had a very limited market. As things progressed, it became clearer that this market was even more limited than expected. I am not sure that either of the two finalists (Dodgers and Mets) actually wanted him that badly, but they were willing to take the plunge at what they perceived as the right value. The Dodgers wind up with a very talented headache, the kind you are generally more comfortable integrating into an established team and culture that has just come off of a World Series win.
In contrast, signing someone with Bauer’s history would have been a tough move for the Mets to defend, considering they just fired their General Manager for sexually harassing a female reporter, followed by the report that former Mets Manager Mickey Callaway also had a history of harassing women.
Bauer is one of the only players in the sport to retain a female agent, but he also has a history of harassing women online, and his online army of baseball nerds will be sicced on anyone that criticizes him. As an added bonus, it was the exact type of Bauer troll army that ran new Mets owner Steve Cohen off of Twitter after the GameStop situation of the past few weeks.
Obviously, people with rare talent in all walks of life tend to be given endless opportunities despite their potential moral or behavioral failings. Based on my experience in the sport, I assume any responsible team that decided to engage Bauer looked to get him to show some private contrition for his past behavior, while also having a plan to help him move forward. With Cespedes, the idea was to surround him with a group of talented, strong-minded teammates that could help keep him in line. In his case, our concern was more on the field than off; but of course, it was poor choices off the field that ultimately led to his undoing, and these things all end up being interrelated.
With Bauer, there’s the additional question of how he would have handled being second fiddle to Jacob deGrom in the biggest city in the country. I’m sure the Mets did their due diligence on this, and Bauer told them it was not a problem. But words and actions don’t always line up -- and based on his past behavior and love of the spotlight, it would be hard to accept that Bauer would ultimately be fine with the arrangement.
In the end, both teams may benefit from this outcome. While the Dodgers paid a high AAV, they get a player in his prime coming off of a Cy Young season, and they only commit to three years. For a team with the financial resources of the Dodgers, that is an easy decision. For the Steve Cohen Mets, perhaps it could have been easier under different circumstances.
Yes, the Mets missed out on a talented player, but they likely dodged a bullet in how it all transpired. I’m sure fans have mixed emotions about how everything unfolded, but my two cents is that it will end up being a good thing that the Mets were able to avoid this drama.
It is a tall order to expect a player to evolve and mature on the big stage of New York City. In the case of Bauer, it would not have surprised me if his behavior became even worse, and garnered more attention under the New York spotlight.
⚾️ In trade news, the Rangers sent shortstop Elvis Andrus, catching prospect Aramis Garcia, and $13.5 million in cash to the Athletics over the weekend, for outfielder/designated hitter Khris Davis, catcher Jonah Heim, and right-handed pitcher Dane Acker.
⚾️ Of relevance to Mets fans, Atlanta is bringing back OF (and probable future DH) Marcell Ozuna on a four-year, $65 million that could pay up to $80 million over five years.
⚾️ Pittsburgh is in agreement on a minor league deal with former Met left-hander Chasen Shreve, per Jeff Passan. Shreve struck out 12.2 batters per 9 innings in limited action for the Mets in 2020, but has struggled with control for much of his career.
⚾️ Toronto has shown interest in switch-hitting free agent Marwin Gonzalez, who has also been linked to the Mets, per Shi Davidi of SportsNet.
⚾️ The Red Sox are making progress on a deal with Japanese reliever Hirokazu Sawamura, per Chris Cotillo.
🔗 Mets must have Jacob deGrom contract talk in Trevor Bauer aftermath, by Joel Sherman, NY Post: “It is understood around the Mets that deGrom may not be all that pleased with his contract and that the Mets were offering more to someone in Bauer who had never done anything for them.”
🔗 Jacob deGrom ranks tops among aces with deepest arsenals, by Matt Kelly, MLB.com: “A ludicrous 94.4% of deGrom’s pitches last year clocked in at 90 mph or faster, second only to Dodgers reliever Jake McGee across all of MLB.”
🔗 Mets part of MLB’s most compelling division, by Ken Davidoff, NY Post: “Even if Steve Cohen hasn’t taken the industry by as significant a storm as Mets fans hoped, there’s no denying how much better his new purchase looks with the additions of Carlos Carrasco, Francisco Lindor, Aaron Loup and Trevor May, as well as McCann, and don’t forget Marcus Stroman’s acceptance of the qualifying offer. Furthermore, if any major league team isn’t done yet this winter, it’s the Mets.”
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this was a great newsletter and something that has long been needed. well done and good luck.