The Metropolitan: Is eight still enough?
On starting pitching depth & all the day's news
Good Morning,
Today we’ll explain why depth starters like Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto will be more important than ever in 2021.
But we start with the news (and a reminder to please fill out this brief user survey if you haven’t already):
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
☘ GAME RECAP: Wearing green caps for St. Patrick’s Day, the Mets fell to the Marlins 3-2 in walk-off fashion. But while prospect Yennsy Diaz (who came over in the Steven Matz trade) surrendered a two-run blast in the 9th, the news wasn’t all bad.
THE GOOD: The Mets received spotless innings in relief from bullpen options Jacob Barnes, Tommy Hunter and Stephen Tarpley. On offense, Francisco Lindor continued to rake with two hits, and Albert Almora Jr. drove in two.
DEPTH: Perhaps most importantly, pitcher Joey Lucchesi (pronounced loo-KAY-see) made a CASE-see (sorry) for sticking on the big league roster. The lefty started the game with three scoreless, hitless innings, while striking out four and walking two (with one erased on a pickoff). With questions surrounding the Mets’ fifth starting pitching slot (and Carlos Carrasco’s elbow), as well as remaining openings in the bullpen, Lucchesi could potentially provide value to the club in either capacity.
FIRST IMPRESSIONS: "I just got traded to a new organization,” Lucchesi said after the game. “I just want to show them that I belong here, and every time I step on that rubber I want to prove my worth." (More on Lucchesi and the team’s starting rotation depth in a minute).
🏥 DOM OUT: Dominic Smith, who’s gotten very few reps in left this spring, was forced to sit on Wednesday, due to “general wrist soreness.” Smith is classified as (the famously meaningless) “day-to-day,” with manager Luis Rojas saying,"He actually said it’s something that he’s had in the past… it’s probably from a swing." Instead of playing, Smith worked on getting outfield reads.
🤺 BATTLE FOR THE PEN: Not to be outdone by more familiar bullpen names, Tarpley may be opening some eyes this spring, allowing just one run in six innings, along with five strikeouts so far. The Mets claimed the 28-year old off waivers from the Marlins in January. And while he has some major league experience, the lefty still has minor league options available, meaning he may start the season there.
👿 REVENGE?: This one may be a bit of a stretch, but the obscure Marlin who hit the game-winning home run in yesterday’s game? None other than Joe Dunand. Why is that relevant, you ask?
⚾ TODAY: Marcus Stroman will take on the Nationals, the Mets’ opening day opponent, in a 1:10 p.m. game that will be televised on SNY and the MLB network (and heard on WCBS 880-AM). The Mets will see veteran Jon Lester in his first spring start for Washington.
What does a post-COVID rotation look like?
🧓 by Blake Zeff
In normal times, you could look at your team’s top five starting pitchers — and based on that quintet alone, decide how optimistic to be about your season. When the Mets had guys like Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler and Matz in the rotation, you knew there was a floor the team was likely to exceed that year. And if they had — oh, I don’t know — Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha as pillars of the rotation, that was evidence enough that you might end up watching games more for the Gary/Keith/Ron banter than for any playoff implications.
But, coming off the COVID 2020 season, where teams played 60 games and no pitcher surpassed 84 innings, the calculus of what comprises a sufficient starting rotation will likely need to be adjusted. Five starters probably won’t give you a complete picture (or season) any more. Given the low number of innings pitched in 2020, how realistic is it to expect 200-plus frames from anyone this season?
For younger guys who were slowly ramping up to be able to go deep into long seasons (say, David Peterson), what did a season of 49 innings last year (after two years of 128 and 129, respectively) due to that upward progress? Can they still be expected to break 100 innings this season? 150?
The short answer is no one knows for sure, because there’s simply no precedent for such a season in modern times. Even the strike-shortened 1981 season contained nearly double the number of games as 2020 (103-111, depending on the team).
As one long-time MLB insider with significant scouting experience told me, the effect could vary from pitcher to pitcher. Yes, young arms could suffer, but the time off could also be fine for some veterans — and in some cases, actually have helped the player. Ultimately, he said, pitchers’ arms aren’t logical and this is uncharted territory. Teams will protect their young players and significant monetary investments, but other players may be extended. “Bottom line,” he said, “it needs to be managed.”
Regardless of all the uncertainty, it is clear that relying on five starters will not be enough to get you through a season (in truth, it never was, due to injuries, but the effect may be even more dramatic this season). As a practical matter, if your team has five starters, and 2 or 3 are no longer built up for a long season, you’re looking at effectively a seven or eight-man rotation — because that’s how many pitchers you’ll need to start games, in a best-case, injury-free scenario.
Let’s look specifically at the Mets. Jacob deGrom is a super-human and should be fine. But then there’s #2 starter Carlos Carrasco. Due to his well-documented medical history (leukemia) in 2019, “Cookie” threw just 60 innings that year, followed by 68 in the shortened 2020. He went 200 and 192 in the two years prior, so you know he has the ability to go deep into a season. But, will the last two years of significantly curtailed workloads serve to strengthen his arm (via rest) or leave it unequipped for a long season? No one knows.
Marcus Stroman threw no innings last year, after opting out due to COVID. The year before, he went 102 innings. But, like Carrasco, he hovered around 200 in each of the two years prior. Taijuan Walker has thrown 67 innings over the last three years combined. Is it realistic to expect him to go 150 this year? And then there’s Peterson, who had been on a nice steady incline, building up to a full-season workload, but then took a step back innings-wise, last season.
Add to that a post-Tommy John Noah Syndergaard scheduled to return mid-season, and here’s what it all adds up to: The Mets, like every MLB team in 2021, are going to need to rely on starting pitching depth — not merely for spot starts or emergency injuries, but as potential rotation mainstays later in the season.
The good news is that the club now possesses an assortment of quality depth starters that it didn’t in years past. In 2020, the team was forced to ask the likes of Walker Lockett, Ariel Jurado, Corey Oswalt and Robert Gsellman to start Major League baseball games. The results of that state of affairs were predictable and self-evident. This year, if you consider Syndergaard a part of the rotation, your 6-8 starters are Peterson, Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto (with other options like Jerad Eickhoff also available).
As JB detailed in this space last week, the Mets’ depth starters are well above league average, according to several different metrics.
That’s a good thing. They will almost certainly need them.
⚾️ Houston ace Justin Verlander threw for the first time on Wednesday since undergoing Tommy John surgery, per Chandler Rome. But he’s expected to miss most, if not all, of 2021.
⚾️ A top prospect on Seattle by the name of Jarred Kelenic returned to action last night, less than two weeks removed from a Grade 2 strain of the adductor muscle in his left knee, per Lauren Smith.
⚾️ The White Sox have had extension talks with their mega-prospect, 22-year old infielder Andrew Vaughn, per Jeff Passan.
⚾️ Phillies starter Zach Eflin suffered an injury in his back, and had his start scratched, with manager Joe Girardi saying he’s “a little” concerned, per Matt Gelb.
🔗 Projecting Mets' Opening Day lineup, by Anthony Dicomo, MLB.com: “Given all the pomp and circumstance that comes along with Opening Day, [Luis] Rojas’ early lineups will receive plenty of scrutiny. Here’s a look at his decisions, 1 through 8.”
🔗 We are going to find out a lot more about Luis Rojas this season, by John Harper, SNY: “He immediately set a standard of sorts last year with his handling of Cano, and he did it the right way, discussing his intention with the veteran second baseman ahead of time. Furthermore, he seems to have a strong rapport with his players, several of whom played for him in the minors, to the point where he wasn’t afraid to criticize them publicly -- a rarity these days for any manager.”
🔗 What does Pete Alonso’s scorching start mean? by Tim Britton, The Athletic ($): “Alonso’s plan this year has centered on focus. He deleted his social media apps… to focus more fully on the field. And when he’s in the box, he wants to again narrow focus, to the strike zone and his pitch within it.”
🔗 Who will be the Mets 5th starter?, by Andy Martino, SNY: “If Carlos Carrasco is healthy to start the season, the guess here is that David Peterson will break camp as the Mets’ fifth starter... He has good secondary stuff, a competitive nature that seems to elevate his performances, and -- in the view of some baseball lifers around the Mets -- an appropriately humble curiosity and desire to learn about the game.”
And watch this fascinating conversation between Francisco Lindor and first-base coach Tony Tarasco about the superstar’s new hitting adjustments:
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Good piece Blake - at first i was thinlking they need like 10 extra cause the unevitable pitching injury will come. But with the uncertainity need at least 3 extra