The Metropolitan: Cue the Keith Hernandez groans

Breaking down the Jonathan Villar signing

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Feb 10, 2021

📊 PROJECTIONS

In its new forecast, PECOTA likes the Mets, projecting them to win the National League East by 10 games with 95 wins in 2021. (However, there is a “but” coming.)

COMPETITION: Surprisingly, they place the Nationals second (85), followed by Philadelphia (83), Atlanta (82), and Miami (68). But…

MISSING THE TARGET: Since PECOTA became a thing in 2008, no team has underperformed to their projection more than the Mets. (That said, even if you factor in a 10-game drop in their actual performance, that puts the Amazins at 85 wins this year, and right in contention.)

📚 February 10, 1984: After months of negotiation, the Mets sign Keith Hernandez to a 5-year, $8.4 million deal (including a $1 million signing bonus and $3.4MM deferred annuity). The deal made Hernandez the second-highest-paid player in franchise history at the time. It worked out OK.

Not your typical utility guy

🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone and Blake Zeff

If speed kills, the Mets have been pacifists. Their average sprint speed measured by Statcast as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window” was the slowest in baseball last season. They ranked 23rd in stolen bases. And 29th by FanGraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning metric that considers steals, advancements, and avoiding double plays.

If you like nothing else about the Mets’ most recent signing, Jonathan Villar, you should at least feel good about his proven ability to swipe bases and keep pitchers on their toes when delivering out of the stretch.

The rule that starts runners on second base in extra innings will return in 2021, meaning Villar could find himself sprinting toward a mob of excited (but socially distanced) teammates fairly often next season. New York had five such games over their shortened schedule last year and they played 16 extra inning affairs in 2019, so having a bench piece who can turn a single into a winning run is impactful.

Of course, pinch-running is one thing, earning your way on base from the batter’s box is another. Villar actually posted eye-popping numbers in 2016 with Milwaukee (.369 OBP, 19 HR, 62 SB) and ‘19 with Baltimore (24 HR, 40 SB, 111 runs), where he arguably was the best player in his lineups. But he has been the poster child for the player that’s better in fantasy baseball than in real life. While the above numbers are mighty impressive (and make him look like Trea Turner’s twin), they mask other deficiencies, which particularly came to light last season with Miami and Toronto.

The Statcast numbers have never liked the 29-year-old: His average exit velocity and barrel percentage have been in steady decline from an unimpressive starting point in 2016—and he has always had a high strikeout rate.

Many characterize Villar as someone who can play multiple positions, which is partially true—he has played five of the eight fielding locations over his career. However, the vast majority of his playing time has been at second base or short, with zero innings at third base and only eight outfield appearances since 2016 (and he hasn’t really been a utility or bench guy in recent years, but an everyday player, appearing in all 162 games in 2019).

This is interesting, with Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil as the everyday middle infielders, Luis Guillorme already on the roster, and New York in desperate need of a utility player who can help them defensively along the corners. As noted earlier, perhaps the front office looks for a more significant upgrade at third. Or we could see McNeil play some innings at the hot corner in games when Villar plays the middle infield.

It will be fun to hear what Keith Hernandez thinks about the signing; if there were a way to track the mustachioed hero’s audible groans and bewilderment during telecasts over the last few years, Villar would famously top the list of causes. And for good reason. Last season, he led the league in swinging and missing on pitches that would have been Ball 4 (meaning on 3-ball counts). Amazingly, ten of the 12 instances came against the Mets.

As exciting as Villar can be when he digs his cleats into the dirt and takes off for a stolen base, he can also frustrate fans with mistakes. He is far from a sure thing with the glove. And while he swiped 16 bases last season, he was caught 5 times, and recorded 8 more outs by being picked off or thrown out trying to advance on a ball in play, to say nothing of his KGr+ (Keith Groan Ratio).

That said, the Mets simply need Villar to provide them with a spark off the bench — while putting pressure on opposing pitchers on the basepaths and perhaps re-discovering the pop he has previously shown in his bat. He’s a fun player to watch when he’s on his game. And when he’s not? At least it will be entertaining to listen to Keith’s moans and sighs.

MORNING BRIEFING

Below are the additional sections that were sent in the original email newsletter this morning. We later move the analysis section to the top of this page for linking purposes.

⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…

✍️ SIGNING: The Amazins are reportedly signing switch-hitting, middle infielder JonathanVillar to a one-year, $3.55 million contract. He is an unusual player (more on that later), who gives the team depth on their bench, and most importantly, speed on the basepaths, which we will discuss in a bit.

UNOFFICIAL: With the additions of Albert Almora and Villar, the Mets will need to create two 40-man roster spots. This could be why neither signing has been made official yet, as the team potentially explores trade options that could create the requisite roster space. Otherwise, two players on the current 40-man will need to be designated for assignment.

BENCH: If the season started today, the Amazins would carry a bench that includes Almora (OF) and Villar (INF), along with back-up catcher Tomás Nido, utility man Luis Guillermo, and perhaps corner piece José Martínez.

🍎 REUNION? The Mets have some interest in a reunion with free agent 3B Justin Turner, per Ken Rosenthal. However, the two sides remain apart on the number of years and dollars. Andy Martino reports a reunion is unlikely.

PROFESSIONAL HITTER: Mets fans don’t need to be reminded how Turner became one of the game’s best hitters after leaving New York, but to put a number on it, his .302 average with the Dodgers ranks 5th highest among qualified hitters in that time. And he doesn’t appear to be slowing down: He hit 40 percent above league average last year and projections expect him to do similar damage in 2021.

DEFENSE: While it’s clear Turner can still rake, you wonder how long the 36-year-old can play a solid third base. Statcast ranked his infield defense (measured by Outs Above Average) near the bottom of the league last year. That said, OAA is less sticky year-to-year than other defensive metrics (as demonstrated by the fact Turner’s ranking has vacillated between the top and bottom 15th percentiles over the past four seasons). We watched him play almost every game last year, and will say he can still pick it.

I LOVE LA: After losing a disproportionate amount of salary from the pandemic-shortened season since his previous contract was heavily back-loaded, JT surely wants to make up for some of that on a new deal. The Dodgers just blew past the luxury tax to steal Trevor Bauer from the Mets. Perhaps there is an opening for the Amazins to make an aggressive offer. But it’s hard to imagine Turner will leave Southern California, where he is originally from and his wife went to college, and where the two have become beloved fixtures in the local community.

SECRET WEAPON: Let’s have some fun and note the Mets recently hired former Dodgers analyst Ben Zauzmer who also happens to be Turner’s fantasy football partner. Maybe he can help with recruiting (😂). Also, did you know when Zauzmer isn’t crunching baseball statistics, he is perfecting his model as a leading Oscars forecaster?

🍎 WHAT ABOUT JD? Rosenthal notes in his Turner report that if the Mets were to sign the third baseman, they are “not sure what J.D. Davis might bring in a trade.”

🌴 SPRING DATES: MLB announced the official starting dates for the Mets Spring Training with pitchers and catchers reporting on February 17, their first workout two days later, and the first full workout on February 22.

🔝 RANKINGS: It’s the time of year for lists and the Mets find themselves 19th on Keith Law’s 2021 farm system rankings, 4th on ESPN’s way-too-early starting pitching rankings, and Brandon Nimmo was listed as 89th on MLB’s Top 100 countdown (only 100-81 revealed so far).

⚾️ THE CAPTAIN: David Wright’s agreement to serve as a special advisor to former COO Jeff Wilpon and former GM Brodie Van Wagenen expired this offseason, but there is mutual interest for him to return in some capacity, per Andy Martino.

⚾️ Major League Baseball updated its code of conduct pertaining to harassment and discrimination in response to the revelations that led to the firing of former Mets GM Jared Porter and the suspension of Angels pitching coach Mickey Callaway.

⚾️ Former Dodger reliever Jake McGee is signing with the Giants, per Robert Murray.

⚾️ OF Adam Duvall is set to sign a one-year, $4.5 million deal with the Marlins, per Jon Heyman.

🔗 Davey Johnson relives famous Mets moment after scary COVID-19 battle, by Ken Davidoff, NY Post: “Two weeks of the virus knocked the hell out of me,” Johnson told The Post on Monday. “My wife kept praying for me. All of a sudden, I woke up, after so much fever and coughing, and I didn’t have a cough. I didn’t have a fever. I felt normal. I went from feeling miserable to feeling great. I hope you don’t have to experience [the coronavirus].”

🔗 Strawberry Hopes to Help Others, Strives for a Positive Message in New Book, by By Jay Horwitz: “Darryl Strawberry never ducked a tough question in his entire life. The other day was no exception…[when] a reporter posed this difficult question to Darryl: “Do you think your career is a disappointment because you didn’t make the Hall of Fame?” Darryl didn’t hesitate with his answer. He detailed his bouts with drugs, drinking, and told about his time in jail.”

🔗 Greener Pastures for Albert Almora Jr. and Juan Lagares, But…, by Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs: “The problem for the Mets, beyond fans’ high hopes that new owner Steve Cohen would go on a shopping spree that would land multiple name-brand free agents this winter, is that they’ve gone the Almora route or its equivalent with regularity over the past half-dozen seasons, covering for a mismatched collection of outfield parts by using a righty-swinging glove-first center fielder on a part-time basis.”

🔗 MLB should cave on universal DH for good of the game, by Joel Sherman, NY Post: “The sides must get out of the posture that what is good for their side is invariably bad for mine. In 2021, the universal DH and expanded playoffs are positives for both. But if the parties cannot reach an agreement on the postseason, then MLB must be the adult in the room.”

🎧 LISTEN: In the latest episode of Simply Amazin’, Tim Ryder is joined by Mets right-hander Trevor May for a brief discussion on the upcoming season, the mental aspect behind pitching, and the luxury of having oodles of information at one’s disposal and the right people around to convey that data.

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