Good Morning,
Today we’ll discuss starting pitcher Carlos “Cookie” Carrasco’s injury and how the Mets can fill his innings. But we start with the news.
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
🤦♂️ OH NO: Just when you thought it might be safe — that Carlos Carrasco’s elbow soreness was just par for the course for him and easy to withstand — a new injury pops up out of nowhere: the Mets announced on Thursday that the right-hander suffered a right hamstring strain during conditioning after throwing batting practice on Thursday. Mike Puma of the New York Post is reporting it is a high-grade tear that will likely keep him out 6-8 weeks.
REACTION: “It’s devastating,” Marcus Stroman said of Carrasco’s injury (even before an MRI was performed). “We need him for the rotation to be elite. I want him in the rotation badly.”
DEPTH: We have written in detail about the quality and necessity of the Mets’ starting rotation depth, and they are now going to need it (as we will talk about more in a bit).
OPTIONS: Obviously, Stroman, Taijuan Walker, and probably David Peterson will slide up a spot in the rotation behind Jacob deGrom, and the team will have to decide which starter or group of starters fills in for Carrasco until he returns. LHP Joey Lucchesi (0 ER in 5 IP), RHP Jordan Yamamoto (1 ER in 8.1 IP), and non-roster invite RHP Corey Oswalt (who has struck out 5 of the 6 batters he has faced this spring) all find themselves with a chance to earn starter innings.
STRETCHED: The Mets are also stretching out non-roster invitee veteran LHP Mike Montgomery, who only made one start for the Royals last season due to a lat strain. He threw three innings in a simulated game for the Mets on Tuesday.
🍎 RECAP: Following another strong start by Stroman (5 IP, 2 H, 6 Ks, 0 BBs), the Mets lost 3-1 to the Nationals on Thursday. Edwin Díaz worked in and out of trouble to keep his ERA spotless so far. New outfielder Kevin Pillar picked up two more hits—he is now 12-23 this spring. And Trevor May pitched a perfect ninth inning in the loss.
🦸♂️ INVINCIBLE: After the game, Díaz told reporters, “I feel like I can do whatever I want. I feel like I'm the best pitcher out there.” He has 6 strikeouts, 0 walks, and has only allowed two hits in four innings of spring work.
🔥 HEAT: Noah Syndergaard continues to make progress toward a possible June return from Tommy John surgery, throwing 96 MPH in a bullpen session yesterday, even though he still isn’t at 100 percent, per manager Luis Rojas.
🏟 FANS: Governor Andrew Cuomo announced Citi Field and Yankee Stadium can host up to 20 percent capacity to start the season. That translates to roughly 8,400 fans for the Mets. People who plan on attending the games will need to present a negative COVID-19 test or proof of vaccination.
📺 METS WATCH: SNY announced it will exclusively broadcast 127 Mets games in 2021, with PIX11 partnering with SNY for 28 games.
Is the Mets’ top-end depth good enough?
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
If you read any article about the Mets today — on the heels of Carlos Carrasco’s injury — chances are it will talk about the team’s starting pitching depth. Heck, we wrote about that as recently as yesterday. It’s a big theme from this offseason. Instead of trotting out pitchers who stink, the Mets have added major league arms who can help fill out the back of their rotation.
But just like during March Madness when everyone roots for a cinderella until said team actually upsets a top seed and ruins their bracket and makes for a less-than-exciting Final Four match-up, the quality of “depth” on your roster is dependent on which players it is used to replace. In other words, as a 5th starter, Jordan Yamamoto or Joey Lucchesi are serviceable and better options than pitchers who are otherwise suited for the minor leagues. But use those same hurlers to replace Carrasco — who is arguably the second best starter on the staff — and suddenly that depth doesn’t look so good.
As we wrote last week, while the Mets have above average #6-8 starters, the top-end quality of those depth starters isn’t on the level of some of baseball’s truly deep rotations, such as the Dodgers.
As much time has been wasted discussing Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ pursuit of him that ultimately turned into a wedding with his hometown team, and a garter toss in the form of leaked merch for the Mets — which I suppose means they will be the next team to sign a big free agent? — what is often overlooked is the innings stability he would have provided. He pitches every fifth day (he wants to pitch every fourth day). He would have brought quality and quantity (innings, not tweets).
The Mets pivoted and signed Taijuan Walker, who has pitched 67 innings over the past three years, and will now slot into the third (?) spot behind deGrom and Stroman (who hasn’t himself pitched in a regular season game since 2019). Of course, the Amazins can hope David Peterson continues to develop off his 2020 shotgun season that was his first time pitching above Double-A. And now, with Carrasco expected to miss 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, the strength of the Mets rotation might not be revealed until June.
Put simply, the Mets find themselves in a situation where the difference between winning the division, or not, likely rests on the respective right hamstring (Cookie) and right elbow (Thor) of two pitchers who will be sidelined for at least one third of the season.
While the Mets’ depth starters can make sure they don’t lose 7-1 every 4th and 5th night, if this team has playoff or championship hopes, they are going to need to fill a lot more innings with pitchers of the Syndergaard and Carrasco ilk than the Yamamoto, Lucchesi, or Oswalt type.
As much as we (writers, readers, fans) have talked about the depth of the *back* of the Mets’ rotation, it’s the top-end depth that will be the difference maker this season. The Mets know this, as Stroman indicated yesterday, “We need [Carrasco] for the rotation to be elite. I want him in the rotation badly.”
Luckily, Stroman has been one of the highlights of Spring Training. Plus, the team’s undisputed ace deGrom is perhaps as good as two starters put together:
As you can see in the graphic above, besides the Nationals, deGrom, alone, is projected by FanGraphs to produce around the same or more wins above replacement than any #1-2 starter combination in the division. But as you can also see in the graphic above, with Carrasco only projected to pitch 88 innings this year, his WAR projection falls to 1.9 and what was once a clear advantage becomes a closer race in comparing the output this season expected from the Mets’ 2-3 starters relative to that of their division rivals.
BOTTOM LINE: If both Carrasco and Syndergaard come back healthy in June and pitch to the back of their baseball cards, the Mets will be a dangerous team in the National League East. They can use their back-end rotation depth to fill out several starts in April and May, while using the schedule to their advantage to skip a start or two, when needed.
But the question mark will linger, especially if we find out the starters who haven’t pitched much in the past year (or more) aren’t quite ready to climb another step in the rotation ladder.
⚾️ After missing last season due to a battle with COVID-19, Eduardo Rodriguez was named the Red Sox’ Opening Day starter.
⚾️ Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg is scheduled to throw a four-inning simulated game on Friday. He suffered a strained plantaris muscle in his left calf last Sunday.
⚾️ The Marlins have removed the two 450-gallon fish tanks that used to be inside the walls behind home plate at Marlins Park (no fish for you!).
🔗 MLB sources weigh in on what Carlos Carrasco's injury means for Mets' rotation depth, by John Harper, SNY: “Scouts also made the point that, aside from the leukemia in 2019, Carrasco has been very durable. The only other time he’d missed over the last seven years, in fact, was because of a line drive that broke a bone in his right arm late in the 2017 season. Nevertheless, he’ll be 34 this Sunday, and pitchers tend to be more vulnerable to all types of injuries as they get well into their 30s.”
🔗 Mets rank second in The Ringer’s Starting Pitcher Return Index, by Zach Kram: “The city of New York could build one of the best rotations in baseball out of missing 2020 pitchers returning to action. In the Mets’ case, although the team added useful pitching depth this winter with the likes of Taijuan Walker and Joey Lucchesi—which is already coming into play, with Carlos Carrasco’s torn hamstring—the best version of the rotation certainly features Jacob deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, and Syndergaard at the top.”
🎙 For old times sake, listen to Mike and the Mad Dog break down the over/unders for the Mets and Yankees…
And on a day we get news of Carrasco’s injury, we leave you with this video of Noah Syndergaard progressing toward his return…
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