Good Morning,
Today we’ll talk about the current state of reliever Dellin Betances’ repertoire, but we start with a recap of yesterday’s action.
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
🍎 LIFE’S GRAND: Sparked by a grand slam from Pete Alonso, the Mets built off a strong start by David Peterson to beat the Nationals 8-4 on Thursday.
👸 BIRTHDAY BOMB: Alonso’s parents drove down from Tampa to see the game and celebrate a special occasion: “Big shoutout, Happy Birthday, Mom,” Alonso said in an interview after the game. “Glad I could get a birthday bomb for you.”
☄️ ON FIRE: The presumptive leadoff man Brandon Nimmo continues to smoke the ball. He went 2-2 with a single and a home run, both hit with over 100 MPH exit velocity. He is now 5-7 this spring.
⚾️ STARTERS: Left-hander David Peterson pitched two solid innings, allowing only one hit, as he competes with newcomers Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto for a rotation spot, assuming Taijuan Walker ends up with the fourth turn behind deGrom, Carrasco, and Stroman.
COMPETITION: “Obviously we do take into consideration what happened last year, knowing that the experience and the feel is there, everything is there,” manager Luis Rojas told reporters after the game. “But what we see now knowing that we have depth with guys in camp, we know that we can have a little competition.”
⚾️ THE BULLPEN: Several of the bullpen arms that will be key to the team’s success (or not) made appearances on Thursday.
Starting with the good: Right-hander Trevor May made his debut and hit 95 on the radar gun, while walking one, in an otherwise clean inning. Aaron Loup allowed a hit and struck out one.
And now to the not so good: Jeurys Familia had trouble finding the strike zone, walking two before escaping the third inning unscathed. Dellin Betances got two quick outs before spotty command, poor defense and hard hit balls turned into 4 runs, a blown save, and later, a “win” (baseball official scoring!). Much more on Betances in a bit.
😴 OFF DAY: The Mets are off on Friday, and will resume their Grapefruit schedule with a promising hurler named Jacob deGrom on the hill against the Astros on Saturday.
In other news…
🚦LUGO: After undergoing surgery in February to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow, Seth Lugo is progressing well in his rehab: “Right now we’re on track, a little more than two weeks in,” Lugo told reporters. “I’m working out on a shoulder program, riding a bike. Planning on throwing once we get there.”
🗣 HE SAID IT: Team president Sandy Alderson during an in-game interview with ESPN on Thursday: “While some of our players aren’t defensive geniuses, we think that the overall blend that we have is pretty good.” Ok then…
4️⃣ SEAMER: Reliever Jeurys Familia says he plans on incorporating his four-seamer more often this season: “It’s not a new pitch,” he told reporters through an interpreter. “But this season, and this Spring Training as well, I’ve been trying to incorporate that more.”
🏟 FANS: Owner Steve Cohen told a fan on Twitter, “without question there will be fans [at Citi Field] this year.”
🎢 CYCLONES: The Brooklyn Cyclones announced their 2021 coaching staff with Ed Blankmeyer as manager, Nic Jackson as hitting coach, Royce Ring as pitching coach, and Mariano Duncan as bench coach. (Ring may be recalled by older fans as part of the return when the Mets traded an aging Roberto Alomar to the White Sox in 2002.)
📚 March 5, 1972: Jim Fregosi, obtained by the Mets from the Angels for Nolan Ryan, breaks his right thumb during a spring training workout. Fregosi would only play in 101 games and bat .232 for the season.
Fighting against gravity
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
The days of Dellin Betances throwing like this are probably over.
While his fastball velocity showed some promise in his first spring outing (sitting around 92 MPH), until the radar gun actually shows 99 again, he he will need to learn how to pitch at a lower speed.
Which is fine… and exactly what he spent this offseason trying to do, working with a biomechanics coach, as explained in this recent NY Post article:
“Mechanically, Rockland Peak Performance (RPP) pitching coach Mike Lembo worked on Betances’ delivery and used Rapsodo to bring his spin efficiency up — from mid-80s last season to mid-90s now, Signore said. They also brought his vertical break back up after it had fallen off last season, with Betances wanting more carry and less cut on his fastball.”
What does this mean? Besides velocity, the biggest post-injury change to Betances’ fastball has been its’ vertical movement, or lack thereof.
Since 2017, when he was striking out nearly 40% of the batters he faced, his vertical drop has nearly doubled, meaning his fastball no longer appears to “rise” to opposing hitters. This is why he was working over the winter to improve his spin efficiency, which was only 70% last season. By maximizing the backspin on his fastball, he can hopefully reduce the amount of downward vertical movement.
Because without velocity or rise, swinging strikes against his fastball have virtually disappeared: a 32% whiff rate in 2018 plummeting to 13 percent last year. And that is mainly due to the lack of swings and misses against high fastballs. As you can see in the graphic below, he started pumping his four-seamer low in the zone last season, after losing confidence in his ability to miss bats.
This is all important context in evaluating Betances’ four-run performance on Thursday. And there are a few interesting takeaways.
The good news: Hernan Perez swung through a high fastball. This is noteworthy, as I alluded to before, because Betances only got three whiffs on high fastballs all of last season, which used to be a strength for him. He also seemed to make a concerted effort to locate the pitch higher in the zone. Unfortunately, we don’t have the detailed spin data to tell us whether his efficiency improved, but the intent on location appeared to be there.
The bad news: The Nationals turned two high fastballs into a double and a home run. This is something that rarely happened when Betances was Betances. In fact, he allowed only five extra base hits (2 home runs) on high fastballs during his entire final two seasons with the Yankees.
Add to that: Betances also struggled with his knuckle curve on Thursday, throwing just two strikes on nine tries. When you have a fastball that no longer zips or rises and a breaking ball that lacks command, it’s tough to survive in the major leagues.
So while it’s only one Spring Training outing, and manager Luis Rojas indicated that Betances’ mechanics were where they wanted them to be (his release point appeared to be a bit higher which could help him get behind the ball more in his all-out effort to exchange run for rise), it’s fair for Mets fans to be concerned that the right-hander is still someone who will be relied on to get key outs, before they can call to the back of the bullpen.
A worry that will persist until his mechanical changes prove he can live up in the zone with his fastball again.
⚾️ Astros starter Framber Valdez could miss the entire 2021 season if he opts for recommended surgery on his fractured ring finger, per Jon Heyman.
⚾️ Reds outfielder Shogo Akiyama returned to Spring Training after missing time due to his wife being seriously injured when a tree fell on her in a park in Ohio.
⚾️ Spring Training Notes: Diamondbacks starter Madison Bumgarner struck out six in his debut; Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo hit a home run in his third straight game.
🔗 Mets may eventually have to answer for passing on Jackie Bradley Jr., by Ken Davidoff, NY Post: “It all could work. Or the Mets’ defensive issues could undermine their strengths while Bradley becomes a beloved Brewer (in which case he could opt out and give the Mets another shot next winter). As Rojas said on Thursday, defense ‘is one of the things that we’re working on in this camp. Defensively, we can hurt ourselves. We’ve seen it happen in the past. It happened last year.’”
🔗 Slugger central: Prospects with power, via MLB Pipeline: “The Mets chose to overlook that [Brett] Baty was on the older side at 19 for a prep bat in the 2019 Draft and took him 12th overall precisely because of his power potential. The third baseman provides plus power from the left side and earns extra marks for his ability to drive the ball the other way. He hit seven homers and slugged .452 in 51 games across three levels in 2019, showing promising pop in the Minors for someone already coming off a full high-school schedule.”
🍪 And we leave you with the return of the Cookie Club with SNY’s Steve Gelbs, Dominic Smith, and J.D. Davis…
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