With Seth Lugo returning to the team today, it’s time to pose the question no Mets season is complete without asking: Should Lugo be a starter or reliever?
Compared to previous seasons, the question has a new context this time. The first-place Mets find themselves with Noah Syndergaard out for at least two months, and Carlos Carrasco out indefinitely (insert your favorite "Cookie Crumbles" headlines here). All of which means that David Peterson (who's never thrown more than 128 innings in a season before, and threw just 49 a year ago) and Joey Lucchesi (who's struggled, but been much better lately) are no longer just temporary stopgaps to get you through until the cavalry returns.
The cavalry may not be returning.
At the same time, the Mets' bullpen has been shockingly, delightfully.... amazin'. Edwin Diaz — yes, Edwin Diaz — has shown he can handle the closer spot, converting all 9 of his save chances this year, and recording 13 straight dating back to last year. Trevor May has been as advertised, locking down the 8th inning. Add a combination of Aaron Loup and Jeurys Familia in the earlier innings, as well as the group we here at Mets Fix call the "multivitamins" (middle/long relievers like Sean Reid-Foley and Tommy Hunter who routinely go multiple innings and post zeros), and you've got the closest to a lock-down bullpen this franchise has had in years.
In a world where Jacob deGrom's health can't be counted on for every start, and Syndergaard and Carrasco can't be counted on to make any starts, the rotation starts to get thorny. Marcus Stroman has been a beast all season, but after him it's been bullpen days, Jordan Yamamoto (now on the 60 day IL), Lucchesi, and Peterson for more days than a first-place team can sustain. Taijuan Walker has been great when healthy, but just completed a stint on the IL himself.
So what does that mean for Lugo? It's no secret he prefers to start. And, while his record as a reliever has been more consistently excellent, he's had spurts of brilliance as a starter. Also, remember, while Lugo's been an elite reliever, his partially torn UCL renders him unable to relieve on consecutive days, effectively disqualifying him as a closer or regular 8th inning option. (Obviously, as a starter, the consecutive days problem is a non-issue.)
As a starter, he was a revelation in 2016, coming out of nowhere to help save the season when injuries to the rotation made the team desperate for innings during a playoff drive (sound familiar?). Some will recall that he had mixed results last year in the role; but remember, he was asked to stretch himself mid-season and extend from a reliever to starter in real time. He dominated at first, with a 1.54 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings over his first 3 starts. But two bad starts at the end of the short season left the statistics much more mixed.
In this case, he wouldn't be asked to change his plan mid-season after throwing as a reliever. The Mets could begin stretching him out now, with an eye towards entering as a 4-5 inning option every five days.
The unfortunate reality is that this rotation could get exposed sooner than later, and the Mets don't have many other options. Plus, while you never want to temp the gods of fate, the bullpen seems like it can thrive without him.
A rotation of deGrom, Stroman, Walker, Lugo and Peterson, can get you through a pennant chase.
But take away Lugo, and the potential back end starts to look like Jerry Blevins on a cleanse: definitely likable, but a little too thin for comfort.