☀️ GOOD MORNING:
When the scheduled was first released, a July matchup between the Mets and Orioles was supposed to be more than an historical rematch of old World Series foes, but a competitive battle between two of the fastest rising organizations in their respective leagues.
While the Amazins have recently hit a bump in the road, they have lived up to the billing; the O’s, not so much. This series as much about whether the Mets can force Baltimore into being sellers of pieces David Stearns might soon want to poach as it is a barometer across leagues.
At 40–49, new manager Tony Mansolino is trying to prove his Orioles team deserves a chance to make a second half run. They have gone 25–21 since he took the reins from Brandon Hyde, and are coming off the impossible feat to Mets fans, a sweep of the Braves.
Carlos Mendoza’s group starts a road trip that will see them get a lot healthier. Jesse Winker is expected to return to the lineup in Baltimore, while both Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea are set to join the rotation in Kansas City.
“It’s almost like a trade deadline acquisition,” Francisco Lindor said of his returning teammates. “Those are some really good guys we definitely need and miss. That being said, the guys here have done a fantastic job stepping in while they were out.”
☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
The Mets need at least one of the young positional core to take a step forward if they want to be serious contenders this season. That player might be Ronny Mauricio, at least against right-handed pitching.
The kid has hit the ball extremely hard since arriving in Queens. His elite bat speed helps him achieve the modern gold standard for hitting, that is pulling the ball in the air. While his overall pull numbers are around league average, he makes his pull contact count by yanking the ball in the air at a near 25% clip.
🔹 STAYING IN FRONT: Mauricio achieves this by making contact in front of the plate. Statcast data allows us to see where his bat strikes the ball relative to the plate and the center of his body. At 34.7 inches, no other player on the roster is making contact as far in front of the dish.
Take elite bat speed, timed perfectly against the fastball, and you get this:
Mauricio is your classic dead-red hitter. The league might adjust, but over a relatively small sample, right-handers have paid a hefty price for trying to sneak a fastball past the hard-swinging infielder, to the tune of a a .613 slugging percentage.
🔹 OFFSET: Seeing red has never been an issue for Mauricio, it’s hitting everything else. He has a 40% whiff rate against breaking pitches, as he did when he first broke into the league in 2023. He’s only marginally better against offspeed pitches.
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