Rough draft (for the Mets)

They continue to lead the division in wins... and drama

Good Morning,

The Mets continued their trend of dramatic, inspiring victories followed by lifeless, lackluster defeats yesterday, by crawling to a 7-1 loss in the rubber game against the Reds. It came on the heels of a riveting, come-from-behind 5-4 win on Saturday that included a homer from their newest star, Javy Baez, and late heroics from Dom Smith, Edwin Diaz and Brandon Drury.

The on-the-field drama was only part of the weekend’s action. The club followed up a mixed trade-deadline performance (most critically, a failure to upgrade pitching while Jacob deGrom suffered a serious setback) with the news that it did not reach an agreement with #1 draft pick, Kumar Rocker. Believe us, we’ll get into all of this below. But first, let’s recap yesterday’s action.

⚾️ IN SHORT: The quiet Mets offense made rookie starter Vladimir Gutierrez look dominant over 7 innings of 1-run ball. While Marcus Stroman kept the team in the game before tiring in the 6th, Jeff McNeil provided the only offense with a solo homer. The game was still within reach until the 9th, when recent call-up Geoff Hartlieb got roughed up for 3 runs. [Box Score]

🔑 KEY MOMENT: It was a 1-1 pitcher’s duel into the 6th, and then Jesse Winker led off with a double against Stro, followed by a triple from Kyle Farmer that opened up a 3-run inning for the Reds.

3 TAKEAWAYS

❶ FRONT OFFICE FAILURE LIMITS BULLPEN OPTIONS: No offense intended towards Mr. Hartlieb (10.29 ERA, 7.27 career ERA), but he is not the type of reliever a first place team should be bringing into the 9th inning of a close game during a pennant race. The front office’s inability to beef up the pitching corps at the trade deadline means that we may continue to see pitchers like Hartlieb and Anthony Banda (who threw on Friday in a key moment) in big spots.

❷ BAEZ BRINGS THE HEAT: The Mets defense executed what seemed like a potential turning point at the time, nailing a runner at home in the 4th to keep the score at 1-0 Reds. Kevin Pillar threw on target to Javier Baez, who turned and threw this 91.2 mph bullet to cut off the run at the plate. Tomas Nido made a nice play to field the throw and then dive to tag out the runner:

Anthony DiComo @AnthonyDiComo

Javier Báez is an absolute star, and he's making a massive difference already. Tremendous, 91-mph relay throw to cut down what would have been another run. Reds 1, Mets 0, mid-four.

❸ JEFF McNEIL, PROFESSIONAL HITTER: The previous regime tried to trade him for an aging, overpaid 2B and the new regime made a splashy deadline deal that will shift him out of position, but McNeil continues to hit. McNeil ended the month of July slashing .351/.419 with a .912 OPS.

🧑‍🏫 SOUND SMART: Marcus Stroman has pitched better than his 7-10 record, but when he doesn’t give his team length, things don’t go well; the Mets are 1-9 when Stroman pitches fewer than six innings.

⏭ NEXT UP: The Mets will look to build on their fragile, first-place lead with a four-game set in Miami, starting tonight with Tylor Megill on the mound. Megill has been a critical addition to the rotation; his record (1-0) is far from representative of his true performance, as he carries an impressive 2.04 ERA over seven starts.

---

📈  STANDINGS: With yesterday’s loss, the Mets fall to 55-49, just 3.5 games ahead of Philadelphia, and 4 ahead of Atlanta. Both challengers went for it at the trade deadline, with Atlanta adding several outfield bats and reliever Richard Rodriguez — and Philadelphia bringing in some pitching reinforcements, including starter Kyle Gibson and reliever Ian Kennedy.

🤕 SICK WARD: Another day, another injury. Yesterday, we learned (out of nowhere) Luis Guillorme was placed on the 10-day IL due to a left hamstring strain. Meanwhile, Brandon Nimmo experienced a “pinch” in his right hamstring, which caused him to miss Saturday’s game, and was limited to a pinch-hitting role on Sunday.

🍎 ROSTER MOVES: The Mets designated left-hander Anthony Banda for assignment to clear active roster space for Javier Báez. And right-hander Akeem Bostick cleared waivers after being designated for assignment, and so was outrighted to Triple-A Syracuse.

🏆 HALL-OF-FAME: Ron Darling, Edgardo Alfonzo, and Jon Matlack wre inducted into the Mets Hall-of-Fame in a ceremony on Saturday before the game.

📚 DID YOU KNOW: The last time the Mets failed to sign a first round pick was in 1970, when they couldn’t reach an agreement with shortstop George Ambrow due to concerns about his knees (h/t Dave Lennon).

---

The Kumar Rocker Saga: What to Know

The Mets failed to reach agreement with first round pick Kumar Rocker before the 5:00 pm deadline on Sunday. What does that mean and how the hell did we get here? Let’s try to answer as much as we can. 

WHAT HAPPENED?

You can imagine a conversation between Steve Cohen and the Mets’ medical staff unfolding like a scene in the show Billions (whose main character was supposedly inspired by him). Cohen asks how sure they are that Kumar Rocker is damaged goods, to which they respond:

Unfortunately, for Uncle Stevie, he didn’t gain any certainty before the Mets made Rocker the 10th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. And so here we are.

Whether the Mets found ligament damage or weapons of mass destruction when reviewing Rocker’s medicals, we might never know (remember, the Mets cannot say much about their concerns with Rocker’s health, or risk violating HIPAA rules). But whatever they found (and some reports suggest it was an elbow issue), they decided it was serious enough to blow up their entire 2021 Draft and let him walk away. 

This was not a money issue, as Mr. Cohen reminded us in tweet yesterday:

Steven Cohen @StevenACohen2

Education time - Baseball draft picks are worth up to 5x their slot value to clubs .I never shy away from investments that can make me that type of return.

The Mets were prepared to pay the Vandy star well over his slot value ($6 million instead of $4,739,900). It came down to his health. Per multiple reports, the Mets didn’t even make Rocker an offer once they reviewed his medicals. According to Justin Toscano, the Mets received multiple opinions on Rocker's results and deemed it a “straightforward decision” not to sign him.

“This is clearly not the outcome we had hoped for and wish Kumar nothing but success moving forward,” Mets general manager Zack Scott said in a statement. “We’re excited about the players we have signed and look forward to watching them develop and contribute to the organization in the years to come.”

WHY DIDN’T THEY KNOW THIS BEFORE DRAFTING HIM?

While there were concerns about arm fatigue after Rocker’s velocity fluctuated this past season, there was no concrete evidence of a major arm problem. In fact, some doctors who examined Rocker before the draft (at the behest of his agent) supposedly saw no need for surgery of any kind, per Andy Martino.

You could argue it’s not really the Mets’ fault for being surprised by his medical results. Rocker did not participate in the leagues’ pre-Draft MRI program (meaning he did not provide the Mets or other suitors with detailed medical records ahead of time), which put them in the dark before selecting him — but also isn’t uncommon, and it is what allows the club to receive a compensatory pick next year without offering Rocker the standard 40% of his slotted bonus (which would have been $1.9 million).

Rocker’s agent, Scott Boras (who obviously has his own motives), issued a statement on Sunday insisting that “independent medical review by multiple prominent baseball orthopedic surgeons” essentially found the star pitcher is healthy.

“Kumar Rocker is healthy according to independent medical review by multiple prominent baseball orthopedic surgeons. Immediately upon conclusion of his collegiate season, he had an MRI on both his shoulder and his elbow. When compared with his 2018 MRIs, the medical experts found no significant change. Kumar requires no medical attention and will continue to pitch in the regular course as he prepares to begin his professional career,” he said.

Without the benefit of knowing what the Mets saw in the latest medical results, we can only speculate whether they are overreacting to what they are seeing. Logically, even if Rocker has to go under the knife, you would think that wouldn’t be enough to let a talent like him go, especially when his selection impacted the rest of the draft (which we will talk about in a bit).

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

By not signing their first round pick this year, by MLB rule, the Mets receive a compensatory pick in the 2022 draft, which will be slotted one pick after the pick they used on Rocker, so 11th overall. According to Anthony DiComo, the Mets essentially decided the 11th pick in next year’s draft outweighed taking on the risk of signing Rocker, who they clearly believe is an injured pitcher.

Meanwhile, Rocker still has two more years of college eligibility, but he will reportedly work out on his own instead of returning to Vandy, in anticipation of entering the draft next year. This is the same path Luke Hochevar took in 2005: after failing to sign as the 40th overall pick, he took a year off, and was ultimately selected first overall in 2006.

HOW DOES THIS IMPACT THE DRAFT CLASS?

Besides the obvious — the Mets lose another first round pick (remember, they also traded their 2020 first round pick, Pete Crow-Armstrong, three days ago for two months of Javy Báez) — by not signing Rocker, the Mets waste about $1.3 million in unused bonus money ($878,500 of their pool + $450,000 in overages) they had saved for that purpose.

For those not versed in how the bonus pool system works, every draft pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a “slot value.” The sum of those slot values represent a team’s bonus pool. Clubs can sign drafted players for amounts different than their assigned values, but if they end up exceeding their total bonus pool amount, they are subject to tax penalties and loss of future picks.

After selecting Rocker 10th overall, the Mets made the rest of their draft selections with the assumption that they would need extra money to sign Rocker. As a result, they ended up signing six of their Top-10 picks to under-slot deals, three players right at their slot value, and locked up everyone picked in the late rounds (11-20) for $125,000 or less. In other words, they had to spend some picks on bargains in order to “afford” Rocker.

Obviously, the Amazins could have altered their draft strategy, and reached for better players later in the draft, had they been worried about signing Rocker. That is, they could have hedged by drafting a player (or players) with high upside in the later rounds, as a back-up plan (we explain this concept in a minute).

Now it is too late. While failing to sign Rocker means the Mets automatically lose his $4.7 million slot value, they also lost the opportunity to use the savings they pulled together in case they went “over slot” on Rocker to sign a better late-round player. They could have avoided this by finding high-ceiling players in rounds 11-20, rather than focusing on the ones they knew they could sign for the maximum $125,000 amount that wouldn’t eat into their bonus pool—not to mention, had they passed over Rocker completely, they could have drafted more players in the earlier rounds (2-10) without worrying about staying under slot.

HOW DOES THIS IMPACT THE METS?

Let’s be honest: this hasn’t been a good week for the Mets’ front office. In trading Crow-Armstrong in the Bàez deal and failing to sign Rocker, two of the team’s top 7 or 8 prospects are gone, and the club now has just one #1 draft pick still in the organization (Brett Baty, 2019) out of the last four they selected (Crow-Armstrong and Jared Kelenic were traded, and Rocker un-signed).

That’s not ideal for a franchise that was already light on prospects and slowly trying to re-stock the system. Is this team strong enough — and likely to go far enough this season — to justify losing Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javy Báez? We’ll find out. But in combination with the Rocker miss, it leaves the farm diminished, to be sure.

In the organization’s defense, they obviously didn’t want to blow up their draft this way, which suggests that what they found in the medical records was truly disconcerting. And there is some recent precedent on their side (but with a key difference from Rocker): In 2014, Brady Aiken was drafted first by Houston but ultimately didn't sign because the club didn't like the report on his elbow ligament. He went on to tear his UCL, had Tommy John surgery and lost velocity. He never pitched in the majors; meanwhile, Houston got the #2 pick the next year as compensation for losing Aiken, and picked some guy named Alex Bregman. (One big difference with the Astros comparison is that Aiken was a high schooler at the time, without the body of recent work against the type of competition that could affirm his health. Rocker just finished a season in the best baseball conference in college without missing a start, striking out 179 in 122 innings. While Aiken could theoretically dominate against high schoolers while hurt, Rocker’s is not the kind of performance at such a high level that would lead one to conclude he is nursing a catastrophic, career-threatening injury.)

There could still be a somewhat happy ending for the Mets. If they’re proven right about Rocker (which would be bad for the player and the sport), and end up selecting someone they’re more comfortable with next year, they could end up OK. But there will never be a way to undo the fact that this year’s draft left chips on the table, both in terms of the opportunity cost of choosing someone different in the first round, and the money left un-spent to get other players.

In addition, Cohen’s remarks noted above — in which he speaks of Rocker and other players as mere “investments” — come at a time when the de-humanizing treatment of minor leaguers has gotten more and more attention. Couple that with the fact that Rocker is a dynamic young star and man of color who had already managed to inspire and excite many New York fans — and it becomes hard to avoid the notion that a special opportunity (and, perhaps, player) may have been missed.

---

🔗 With failure to sign Kumar Rocker, Mets running low on first-round talent in the pipeline, by Dave Lennon, Newsday: “Considering that first-rounders are technically supposed to be your most valued prospects, that’s a serious talent drain, and Rocker should have been a solid front-end rotation type to have in the pipeline. The way Rocker’s brief Mets career unfolded turned out to be a fitting epitaph to the just completed 5-6 homestand, which crashed with a resounding thud Sunday in a lifeless 7-1 loss to the Reds.”

🔗 Mets, Steve Cohen whiffing on Kumar Rocker looks Wilpon-esque, by Ken Davidoff, NY Post: “For as much enthusiasm as the Mets’ new big boss has generated among the jewel franchise’s rabid fan base, as much on-field success as his club has enjoyed, Cohen also has managed, totally inadvertently, to rehabilitate the reputation of his predecessors. It turns out that gargantuan mistakes were not exclusive to Fred and Jeff Wilpon and Saul Katz.”

🔗 Mets Finally Strike, Landing Javier Báez and Trevor Williams, by Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs: “Ultimately, the Mets came away from the past eight days with an exciting but flawed rent-a-player in Báez and two rotation options in Williams and Hill, the latter of whom is a pending free agent. Arguably, they should have bitten the bullet and been more willing to move more prospects to land another bat or a bigger arm — particularly given what we now know about deGrom — but their deal with the Cubs did address multiple needs, and they have a wealth of talent nearing return from the IL.”

And… we leave you with comedian Jon Stewart taking to Twitter yesterday, to make this personal plea and confuse most of his 1.1 million followers:

Jon Stewart @jonstewart

Sign Rocker. Love, Everyone

Thanks for reading! Follow us on Twitter for regular updates until tomorrow’s newsletter.

And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.