☀️ Good Morning:
The 1973 Mets were still 10 games below .500 at this point of the schedule; the 2015 Mets were 48–44.
In other words, two of the franchise’s five World Series contenders were in no better position than this current Mets squad.
After sweeping the Nationals out of Citi Field, the Amazins have the best record in baseball since the end of May and they are in pole position for the final wild-card spot. As only sports would have it, if the season ended today, they would play David Stearns’ former team in a best-of-three playoff series in Milwaukee.
To get you ready for the weekend, we dropped a fresh episode of the Mets Fix Podcast!
Blake & Peter discuss the Mets continued hot stretch that has vaulted them into a playoff race. They also discuss the All-Star snubs of Lindor & Nimmo, whether this run is sustainable with the state of the bullpen, the tough decisions David Stearns faces now that the team is buyers and much more!
☕️ Before you get to that, catch up on the latest news & notes and find out why Jose Iglesias is having such great season at the plate.
😮💨 PHEW: Reed Garrett avoided serious injury and will miss only 2-to-4 weeks, preserving an important bullpen piece for the stretch run. Imaging on the right-hander’s sore elbow revealed inflammation instead of a ligament tear, which would have required surgery.
⚾️ ONE THAT GOT AWAY: We discussed Seth Lugo finding success after leaving the Mets in yesterday’s issue, and today, The Athletic has a piece detailing how his deep arsenal has helped him become an All-Star.
“Most starters cannot handle utilizing 10 different pitches. But Lugo possesses an imagination rare even among intelligent pitchers. The Mets, for instance, tried to de-emphasize his sinker usage based on metrics and industry trends. But Lugo believed in its utility against specific hitters.”
👉 King of the eight-pitch club: Royals’ Seth Lugo rides vast arsenal to All-Star success, by Rustin Dodd and Eno Sarris, The Athletic ($)
⏩ FUTURES GAME: On Saturday, MLB’s top prospects will compete at Globe Life Field in the All-Star Futures Game. Watch Mets’ prospect Brandon Sproat show off his stuff on the mound against Ranger’s prospect Emiliano Teodo. Everything else you need to know.
📊 MLB DRAFT: The 2024 Draft will kick off on Sunday. The Mets possess the 19th pick in the first round. Remember, their slot was pushed back 10 spots because they exceeded the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax by more than $40 million. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel writes this morning, “I’m hearing the Mets are looking at explosively athletic types here, with Vance Honeycutt, Dakota Jordan and Tyson Lewis among the options.”
🗓️ UP NEXT: The Mets close out this mini homestand with a weekend series against the last place Rockies. After playing for 17 straight days, they will finally have an off day for the All-Star break on Monday.
🕷️ Find headlines for all of your favorite teams at SportSpyder, the number one source for sports news links.
😱 OMG
Believe it or not, Jose Iglesias isn’t hitting because he knows how to put out a hit song, as poetic as it sounds.
The veteran middle infielder is having his best campaign since the pandemic-shortened season, batting 43% above league average, while providing adhesion in the clubhouse.
🔷 What is Iglesias doing to make him successful this year?
It’s pretty simple: he is more aggressive swinging at pitches in the strike zone. Someone once described why steroids were so effective to a player like Barry Bonds: essentially, you are giving a veteran who has learned how to recognize pitches the ability to attack them with a youthful vengeance. Iglesias isn’t taking steroids, but he is using his plate knowledge to capitalize on an opportunity that he is treating as if he was a young player trying to make it in this league.
Iglesias has always been effective at taking pitches outside of the zone, but his swing decisions on pitches inside and around the zone (in the shadow area) have tended to be too cautious. You can see the run value of his swing decisions in the graphic below for his 2022 campaign with Colorado, which is reflective of previous seasons.
Compare that to his swing decisions this year:
You see a positive run value around the strike zone that corresponds with a 4-5% jump in swings. These are the pitches that a hitter should be targeting to cause damage.
That is exactly what Iglesias has done. He is hitting .362 on pitches in the heart or shadow area of the zone, his best performance since his career-best 2020 campaign. While he fared relatively well on chase pitches in the convening years, it still only added up to a .327 slug in 2022. That’s not the .560 number you get putting the barrel on balls over the middle of the plate.
Opposing pitchers, particularly left-handers, are learning they have to be careful around the strike zone, and the typical offspeed stuff to an opposite-handed hitter isn’t going to gain them much of an advantage.
Acting as a foil to Jeff McNeil, Iglesias has feasted off southpaws. It’s like they don’t know what to throw to him. He’s hitting fastballs in the zone, while maintaining his ability to make contact with offspeed and breaking pitches designed to be chased or snuck across the plate for a called strike.
🔻 Bottom Line: It’s 75 plate appearances. Don’t expect Iglesias to hit .338 for the remainder of the season. But if he remains aggressive, with a keen eye for strikes, he can remain a relatively dangerous hitter against left-handed pitchers.
◾️ Paul Skenes was pulled after throwing seven no-hit innings and striking out 11 in a Pirates’ win.
◾️ Old friend Zack Wheeler will skip his next start with the Phillies due to nagging back issues.
🔗 The most important part of Mets’ improbable vault into playoff position, by Mike Vaccaro, NY Post: “It should also be remembered that when they began that streak — now 19-9 — they were behind four of the National League teams they’ve faced, and had worse records than all three of the American League teams they’ve played. All of those teams were looking to get fat off the Mets.”
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Let's end the first half on a high note: sweep Colorado. Let's Go Mets!
Fantastic pod this morning! Congratulations to Coach Peter, his daughter, and the New York Wonders! National Champs! I feel like with today’s starters only going 5-6 innings we may see a trend with the next pitcher going 2-3 innings. The Mets are well positioned for this approach with Hauser already doing this. As you said, Megill and Butto are good candidates for this role as well. 100% on board for this bullpen strategy. Also don’t want to mortgage the future for a run this year. Stearns is building for long term sustainable winning so some small additions (bullpen, RF?) are necessary but not at a high cost of prospects.