☀️ Good Morning:
The A’s are open for business!
We will discuss how that suddenly impacts the Mets, along with the latest on Juan Soto.
☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
⚾️ BOSTON CALLING: Don’t count out the Red Sox! As the Juan Soto Sweepstakes enter the final days, Boston has reportedly upped their offer to $600 million and are trying to organize another meeting with Soto and his agent Scott Boras to ensure they can identify a price that would get a deal done.
According to the Boston Globe report, the Sox are operating under the rumor that Steve Cohen could offer $50 million more than any other team, although it is not clear if he would actually do this.
Suitors: While five teams technically remain in play, it appears Soto is deciding between the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets. MLB’s Mark Feinsand reported last night that the Dodgers are unlikely to sign the four-time All-Star. Toronto remains aggressive in pursuit, but they also appear to be a long shot.
Internet sleuths: Since it’s Friday, I will entertain you with the latest internet rumor. Apparently, Carlos Mendoza’s son might have commented on a post suggesting Soto is signing with the Red Sox by replying the Mets have offered Soto $700 million over 15 years.
As we discussed earlier this week, the magic number to hit with Soto is something divisible by a value that is a tick above $46 million, allowing him to surpass Shohei Ohtani’s AAV in real terms. I project Soto to receive a 14-year, $650 million contract, with opt-outs, noting the possibility it could reach $700 million on a 15-year offer. This is where the possibility of Cohen spending $50 million more than the next highest bid could come into play. By adding another year to the deal, he could get there.
Breathe everyone, we will know soon.
👋 So long, Sevy
Sending shockwaves through the baseball world, Luis Severino signed a three-year, $67 million deal with the Athletics. Yes, the Athletics! It is a franchise-record contract, surpassing the six-year, $66 million extension Eric Chavez received back in 2004.
Details: The deal includes a $10 million signing bonus and an opt-out after the second year. The Mets reportedly stayed in touch with Severino to explore a reunion, but never pursued him aggressively, per Tim Healey of Newsday.
Inflation: If you remember, I had Severino fetching a three-year, $45 million contract this offseason, with the potential to earn $60 million on a four-year deal. I never imagined he would get nearly $70 million over three years.
It’s hard to tell if this deal is a sign of the prices to come across the entire free-agent market, or if it is a bit of an anomaly.
Tickets! Moments after the Severino signing was leaked, the A’s announced 2025 season tickets will go on sale. They are desperate to prove to a new marketplace that they are at least somewhat committed to fielding a real baseball team.
New money: You could almost think of this as “new” money entering the market, which might not impact how the typical spenders view their budgets.
We’ve seen Yusei Kikuchi and Michael Wacha sign deals fairly close to market expectations. Blake Snell’s deal might be a little rich, but is also close to what you would expect for a pitcher of his ilk. Prices are slightly up — both Frankie Montas and Matthew Boyd received larger deals than expected — but we will have to see how high they remain on future signings.
Manaea impact: To that point, it is interesting to consider the A’s made a “big offer” to Sean Manaea before agreeing to terms with Severino. One would have to presume Manaea felt comfortable he could secure a similar offer somewhere else. The question is what does that offer look like now that we know Severino negotiated 3-years, $67 million, a price I had pegged for Manaea when the offseason began.
It would seem a four-year deal in the $80-$90 million range is now possible for Manaea.
Mets’ Compensation: By extending Severino a qualifying offer, the Mets will receive a draft pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft. Importantly, that additional pick is worth a little more than $500,000 in draft bonus pool money.
Overpay? There’s no planet where David Stearns was going to pay $67 million for Luis Severino. As good as Sevy was last season, his underlying numbers suggest a bit of a regression. He accumulated 182 innings, but we saw fatigue set in late in the season when he carried a 4.55 ERA over his final 11 regular-season starts. He pitched better in the playoffs, but those added innings make you wonder how strong his arm will be in 2025.
Maybe not? That said, considering Severino has an opt out after the second year of his deal, there is a world where he pitches well enough to want to trigger that opt-out, turning his contract into a two-year, $44.7 million deal.
Depending on how bullish you are on Frankie Montas (and/or bearish on Severino), there’s still a pretty good chance the Mets are downgrading between the two for only $10 million of savings over the next two years.
If Montas turns into another Stearns success story, that’s great. But that would inevitably lead him to opting out after next season, leaving the Mets in need of replacing his innings at a cost probably similar to the remaining amount owed to Severino.
🔻 I’m not saying I would have signed Severino at that price. No way. There’s a real possibility he injures himself again or falls back to league average, turning the third year of that deal into an expensive outlay.
But if part of the path to replacing him is Montas, it doesn’t exactly leave the Mets in a pretty position. They still need to use the savings from letting Severino walk to add more talent to the rotation. Betting you are 0.5 win better with Montas over Severino to save $5 million against the luxury-tax payroll for each of the next two years is not going to catapult you into the playoffs.
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◾️ The A’s cleared a final hurdle to construct a $1.75 billion stadium on the Las Vegas Strip with the Las Vegas Stadium Authority approving a 30-year lease.
◾️ The St. Petersburg City Council voted to approve the bonds necessary to finance Tampa Bay’s new $1.3 billion stadium.
◾️ Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman had surgery on his right ankle and is expected to recover in time for spring training.
🔗 The Luis Severino Experiment worked out well. The Mets got to the NLCS and Severino got $67 million, by David Lennon, Newsday ($): “Not that we expect the Mets to be cheap in regard to their pitching staff. They’re just going to be selective, especially while they’re immersed in a $600 million bidding war for Juan Soto with other significant holes to fill (as well as determining the Flushing fate of Pete Alonso). Based on Manaea’s Chris Sale-inspired brilliance last season and his apparent happiness with the Mets, maybe Stearns can finagle his way back.”
🔗 Alonso's free-agent market should heat up soon, by Anthony DiComo, MLB: “Pete Alonso’s market isn’t likely to develop fully until after Soto signs, according to the opinions of multiple industry experts. That’s no surprise, considering Soto is Plan A for several big-market clubs, including the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox. Any team that fails in its pursuit of him will theoretically have extra funds to allocate to Alonso.”
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I still want the Mets to sign Manaea, even though it is outside Stearns comfort level. 4/$85 works for me. And then I want them to add a starting pitcher who is better than that. A trade for Crochet (and Robert?) or a big signing for Burnes, that kind of thing.
Soto has to be resolved first.
Given that this year represents Stearns first real chance to remake the roster, it feels like Alonso is the key opportunity for a makeover. I'm having a harder time imagining Stearns locking up Pete long-term.
Who knows!
If Soto signs with the Red Sox I’m going to scream. There’s no two ways about it but it also begs another question. Are the Mets not the prized organization we all think they are? Seriously, think about it. We’ve missed out on big name players before and yes during the Coupons years (after the Madoff implosion) it was even worse but we for some reason aren’t able to land a generational player for any cost. I’m not going there (yet) but what the hell? My sights have been set on him for years and I’m going to be beyond disappointed if he goes elsewhere. Assuming he does sign somewhere else does that make Big Pete a must sign? I almost think it does as Belleneger makes more sense in the Bronx especially with that short porch in right. Dude will hit 50 there for sure. I’m also becoming a bit concerned with Stearns and what his philosophy has shown to this point with pitching. Are we going to be making up a staring rotation with guys who are reclamation projects every year? I mean Montas probably is a tweak or two from becoming what? A sub 4 ERA pitcher who can give us 180-200 innings? That’s what his philosophy is? Sure that ERA now is pretty damn decent but it’s not anyone that makes you want to run to the park to see. Are we not going to ever look to sign guys who might be in the mix for a Cy? I get it there aren’t many of them out there anyways but let’s figure something out here. I hope the Soto situation ending is the start of making some moves here. We need real dudes who can get us a frigging ring dammit! The money is off the books let’s go!