Optionality
An update on the bullpen
Good Morning,
We are 18 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Port St. Lucie and we can’t get there soon enough.
In the meantime, I’ve been working on a few ideas for our in-season coverage. One is a match-up chart that will supplement our bullpen graphic in giving a better idea of which pitchers are better suited to face particular hitters in an opposing lineup. We all know managers look for handedness in deciding who to call from the ‘pen, but there are several other factors that aren’t always obvious in the heat of the moment. Perhaps a hitter struggles against spin, or has a cold spot in an area one reliever commands better than others. It’s hard to explain the idea in words, but I’m excited to try out the graphic during the season.
This is what keeps me busy during these slow news days. But we actually have a decent amount to talk about this morning, so let’s get into it!
🗓️ UNCERTAIN TIMELINE: Starling Marte’s status for Spring Training, and consequently, Opening Day, remains unclear. The veteran outfielder underwent core muscle surgery in November and will not participate in the World Baseball Classic in March. As the team prepares for Spring Training, an update on his status will likely come in early February, per Andy Martino.
📝 SIGNING: The Mets have signed right-hander Humberto Mejía to a minor league contract, per Jacob Resnick. He is 0–5 with a 6.68 ERA in eight major league starts. He actually made his big league debut with the Marlins at Citi Field in 2020, striking out the first two batters he faced (Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil).
⚾️ REAL DEAL: Fresh off signing a two-year contract, Tomás Nido offered some advice for top prospect Francisco Álvarez:
“He’s super young and one thing I told him, ‘everyone knows you can hit, you can hit the ball a mile, you want to take pride in your catching,’” Nido told SNY’s Eamon McAnaney on Wednesday. “There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind that he’s going to be a stud. I’m really happy for him and excited that he was able to come to New York last season.”
🔝 RANKED: Speaking of McNeil, he was ranked by MLB Network as the second best second baseman right now, behind Jose Altuve.
📉 HALL-OF-STATS: Former Met Jeff Kent sounded off to the San Francisco Chronicle after falling off the Hall-of-Fame ballot: “Baseball is losing a couple generations of great players that were the best in their era because a couple non-voting stat folks keep comparing those players to players already voted in from generations past and are influencing the votes.”
Kent finished with 46.5% of the vote in his final year of eligibility. He could still earn Hall honors via the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee.
🇯🇵 OHTANI SWEEPSTAKES: A day after Angels owner Arte Moreno announced he was taking his team off the market, speculation continued around the future of superstar Shohei Ohtani. According to Andy Martino, Steve Cohen has “already been talking openly to upper level Mets people about going after Ohtani this winter.”
Get used to this story. It’s going to follow the Mets all season long. Both leading up to the trade deadline, and of course, through next winter when Ohtani becomes a free agent. Martino does a great job explaining all of the different factors to consider in his latest piece, including whether an in-season trade is likely, so I recommend checking it out:
📚 What the Los Angeles Angels non-sale means for Mets, Yankees chances to land Shohei Ohtani
⌥ OPTIONALITY: In response to this tweet:
Jonathan asked in our Subscriber chat for an update of the optionable status of the current bullpen candidates. Ask and you shall receive. The chart below sums it up.
With Brooks Raley out of options, Zach Greene a Rule 5 pick, and Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino and David Robertson each having too much service time to be optioned, that leaves only 2-3 bullpen spots you could fill with optionable players, depending on how many pitchers the Mets carry. If they were to add a Chafin or Britton, that would leave only 1-2 spots.
Teams like to have optionable bullpen pieces to give them flexibility throughout the season to shuffle pitchers in-and-out of the schedule, as rest and match-ups dictate. Buck Showalter called on 31 pitchers (excluding Darin Ruf) last season. If they were to sign another veteran reliever, it would leave them with little breathing room. Looking outside the 40-man roster, both Tommy Hunter and T.J. McFarland are out of options because of service time, and Jimmy Yacabonis has used all three of his options.
All of that said, as long as the Mets preserve at least some flexibility, it’s always better to have a capable major league arm than it is to simply have the ability to call up another hurler who isn’t really ready for the bright lights anyway.
For comparison, the Braves are projected to have only two optionable relievers in their Opening Day bullpen. The Dodgers project to have three. On the other end of the spectrum, the Phillies could have as many as five.
◾️ Former Met Jeurys Familia signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks.
◾️ Left-hander Jeffrey Springs and the Rays agreed to a four-year, $31 million extension.
◾️ Yoenis Cespedes will play for Cuba in the World Baseball Classic.
🔗 Mets’ major Francisco Alvarez question comes with complex answers, by Joel Sherman, NY Post: “The biggest impediment to Alvarez might not be Naravez and Nido anyway. It might be an age-old issue. Alvarez will play the 2023 season at 21. Since 1937, just seven men 21 or younger have started at least 100 games in an MLB season at catcher: Joe Torre (1961), Tim McCarver (1963), Bob Didier (1969), Johnny Bench (1968-69), Ted Simmons (1971), Butch Wynegar (1976-77) and Ivan Rodriguez (1992-93). So three of the last four to do so are Hall of Famers (Bench, Simmons and Rodriguez), and it has not been done in three decades.”
🔗 MMO Exclusive: Utility Player, Danny Mendick, by Matthew Brownstein, Mets Merized Online: “I ended up going to UMass Lowell because the coach liked how I played. We were playing against Hartford, Connecticut, and Sean Newcomb was pitching that day. In BP (batting practice) my thing was I just laid out for balls. I was at short and I’d just lay out there in BP. That’s how I ended up getting drafted because all the scouts there were looking for Newcomb, and they were there watching BP and kind of just picked up on my attitude and play. I got drafted by the White Sox because of that day.”
🔗 Four thoughts about the Mets’ roster, with the help of stat projections, by Will Sammon, The Athletic ($): “McNeil’s body of work refutes the idea of a sub-.300 average in 2023. Any projection model would take into account his .251/.319/.360 slash line in 2021, but those numbers look anomalous. McNeil owns a .307/.370/.458 slash line, and his redemptive 2022 campaign suggests his bat control and contact skills remain elite. Maybe they’ve even improved.”
And we close this one out with Tomás Nido…
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Does one trip to the minors use up one option? Or is an option good for repeated uses within one season?
Good one,Jeff. I am eager to see your input on the match-up issue. A fine initiative.
I would also more depth on the “sneaky fast” phenomenon with pitchers. I know height, stride, spin rate, quirky deliveries, hiding the ball can all make pitches appear faster to the hitter, getting swings and misses when the radar gun says “crush me.” Announcers often mention this and sometimes go in to factors but I want more on that.
Related to this, given all,the talk about how organizations and pitching coaches help pitchers add pitches, change deliveries, and make other adjustments, do they try to coach pitchers to become more “sneaky fast?” If not, why not? Adding the effects of velocity without over stressing the arm would seem a growth area for the pitching performance business, no?