OMG, He's Gone!

Morning Dose: Thursday, March 6

☀️ Good Morning:

Jose Iglesias hit .337 last season.

Adding his defensive versatility around the infield, he was worth 2.5 wins above replacement level in only 85 games played.

Yes, he was an infectious personality in the clubhouse. Yes, he wrote a hit song. Yes, he performed that song on the field after a win. No, those aren’t the main reasons why Mets fans wanted to see the player collectively known as OMG back in blue and orange next season.

Mets fans are used to things going wrong. That reality might be starting to change under Steve Cohen and David Stearns, but if you grew up watching this team, as many of you did, in the infancy of the franchise, or during the Abraham Beame and early Ed Koch years of the city, you are used to hearing about stories like Iglesias from other clubs, but never your own team.

That’s why fans are feeling disappointed after news broke that the veteran infielder is signing with the Padres.

Despite what Jerry Seinfeld says, fans want to root for more than just laundry.

The 2024 season was special in so many ways. It reminded people of the joy you get when your favorite baseball team exceeds expectations — in a game marked by failure, it’s perhaps the greatest feeling in all of sports.

Jose Iglesias was a big part of that.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

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Now that we’ve discussed the emotional aspect of the Iglesias signing — or in the Mets’ case, their choice not to sign him — let’s dive a little deeper into the decision.

David Stearns deserves credit for finding Iglesias in the first place. After spending the entire 2023 season out of the majors, Iglesias became a minor-league signing that turned into the heart & soul of a playoff team. Again, how often does that happen?

And that’s the point.

How often does that happen?

Despite hitting .337 with a wRC+ 37% above league average, here we are on March 5, and the only deal Iglesias could find across the entire league was another minor-league contract — albeit, an attractive one that will pay him $3 million if he makes the roster and potentially another $1 million in incentives (more on this in a bit).

Truly lucky? The question for front offices, and why interest was lukewarm, is whether Iglesias could continue his 2024 performance into the current season. A look at his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) suggests a regression is coming.

Iglesias didn’t hit the ball particularly hard last season (his hard-hit rate was well below league average), he didn’t improve his patience at the plate (his 4.1% walk rate is near the bottom of the league), and it wasn’t often he found the sweet spot of his bat (2.2% barrel rate).

What he did was make a lot of contact, and by simply putting the ball in play, he found plenty of holes in the defense. There’s value in doing that. It shouldn’t be completely tossed aside. But if we look at his career numbers and consider them in the context of whether his underlying metrics tell us he has figured out something new, it’s hard to bet on him repeating his 2024 results.

And if Iglesias is hitting .280 instead of .337, he becomes more replaceable, even as a depth piece on a minor-league contract.