MLB's The Bachelor
The Winter Meetings kick off this week
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Winter Meetings: Today is the start of the annual Winter Meetings (virtually) so it could be an exciting week of news (more in a bit).
Wheelin’ and Dealin’: Reports circulated this weekend that the Phillies are open to trade offers for former Met Zack Wheeler, which the owner later refuted.
GM search: Longtime A’s executive Billy Owens, who worked with Sandy Alderson, is believed to be in the mix for the Mets’ general manager position.
2020 All-MLB: Both Jacob deGrom and Michael Conforto have been named finalists for the 2020 All-MLB Team (just gloss over the names listed at catcher if you click the link).
Black Jerseys: Steve Cohen joked on Twitter there would be nothing left to talk about if he brought back the black jerseys, which seems inevitable.
Happy Birthday, Pete Alonso!
Jake Odorizzi
The Mets are one of several teams who appear interested in free agent starter Jake Odorizzi. Quickly learn about him in the video below.
MLB’s The Bachelor
Today is the beginning of MLB’s version of The Bachelor. In normal times, it would mean all of baseball’s most influential decision-makers would come together in one place to hand out roses to their favorite people. If you are a hot stove fan, this is the week for you. After weeks (sometimes months) of rumors, the Winter Meetings is often the time when we ultimately learn which free agents and trade candidates will promise to marry a new team.
Like with everything else this year, the Winter Meetings will look a little different. The pandemic is forcing them to go virtual. Whether that has any impact on player movement remains to be seen. But for Mets fans, it’s an exciting week because we might see Steve Cohen’s endless money in action for the first significant time.
The Mets are reportedly at least considering all of the top names that will be featured on MLB Hot Stove specials this week. The player that seems most destined to make Citi Field his new home is free agent outfielder George Springer, so we will start with a deep dive on him today.
While there is always room for debate, if you had to rank the top free agents on the market, your list would probably include these three players in some order:
JT Realmuto
George Springer
Trevor Bauer
I rank Springer second because I place a higher value on the catcher position. But for the Mets, any of the three players listed above would fill a major need on the roster. Beyond catching depth and pitching, the two obvious gaps the Mets are hoping to fill this offseason include:
Finding a legitimate centerfielder
Finding a right-handed hitter to balance their lineup.
Springer checks off both of these boxes, as well as a third: signing a top-flight free agent to announce to the world the Mets are back.
The Connecticut native is a local star who would be returning home to bring instant credibility to the team in Queens.
Springer has been a consistent power hitter since bursting onto the scene in 2014 when he hit 20 home runs in his rookie campaign, and during one stretch, becoming the first rookie since Rudy York in 1937 to smash 7 long balls in a 7-game span.
That wasn’t the only time he stamped his name in the record books with his power stroke, although maybe this next feat deserves an asterisk. During the Astros’ now tainted 2017 championship run, he was named World Series MVP for going 11-29 at the plate with a World Series record five home runs.
How much did he gain from their sign-stealing scandal? It’s impossible to say.
An analysis by FanGraphs came to this conclusion:
George Springer was unable to take advantage of the trash can system when the game was on the line or when the game was all but decided, but he really thrived in medium leverage situations.
In other words, Springer benefited from the trash can system, but not so much in the most critical or least consequential situations. A lot of nuance to unpack from the contextual data.
While Springer has shown a bit more remorse than some of his teammates, it’s impossible to write about his MLB career without noting the sign-stealing chapter.
As baseball fans, we have lived through the steroid era, which permeated across the sport regardless of team name, and while we can recognize that several clubs rely on some form of sign-stealing to gain an advantage, the pervasiveness of the Astros’ system appears to have been a cut above the rest.
There’s probably a more official name to this concept, but I am going to call it the Dumb Robber Theory: basically, you would have to be an idiot to continue cheating right after being caught when everyone is watching you more closely. But then Robinson Cano was suspended a second time for PED use and you either need to rename my theory to the Dumb Robby Theory or realize that being caught once doesn’t necessarily mean you stop doing what you were doing to be caught in the first place.
Going back to our Bachelor theme: Can we trust a known cheater won’t break our hearts again?
All we can do is trust that Springer’s broad record over the entirety of his career reflects his true talent. He was a top prospect before reaching the Major Leagues, he mashed from the second he was called up, he mashed while he was stealing signs, and he has continued to mash since the sign-stealing scandal came to light. An argument can be made that not every player necessarily gains an advantage from knowing what’s coming. As John Kruk reminded us in Rookie of the Year, even when you have time to recognize the pitch, you still have to hit it.
You’re a Mets fan, you want to get excited over a star free agent coming to Citi Field instead of worrying about stealing signs, so let’s move on.
Aging as a centerfielder
After playing in right field to start his career, Springer has become a perennial All-Star as a centerfielder since 2017, winning two Silver Slugger Awards, finishing in the Top-10 of MVP voting in 2019 (which is the first season the Commissioner’s Report suggests the Astros abandoned their sign-stealing), all while fielding his position with excellence.
George Springer can hit, run the bases, and field. He’s a slam dunk free agent signing, if we can mix sport metaphors.
I suppose the only “concern” is his age. Signing Springer to a five-year, $110 million contract, which is the median crowdsource contract predicted by FanGraphs, would cover his Age 32-36 seasons.
Now, before I continue, I will note that fans don’t care about aging curves and marginal value when thinking about how the Mets can make a splash in free agency. If George Springer turns into a bust, who cares? Like a random piece of art sitting in storage somewhere, Steve Cohen doesn’t need to see Springer play every single game of his new contract to make the signing valuable to him, he can always just go out and buy something new next year.
While the luxury tax is a real thing that exists - and even the wealthiest teams pay attention to it - there is no hard salary cap in baseball, so the Mets can spend their way out of mistakes, which is the reason why fans have been celebrating in the streets (hopefully while wearing masks) since Cohen was named owner of the team.
All of that said, the goal is to build a winning organization that is sustainable over time. Signing the biggest name in free agency is for headlines. The move only translates to wins on the field if the player meets performance expectations, so it is reasonable to analyze how well a centerfielder ages once they are in their thirties, as Springer is now.
Part of the value that Springer would add to the Mets is his ability to play centerfield. Last season, he ranked in the 69th percentile in Outs Above Average — a Statcast metric that evaluates defensive performance — which is actually down a bit from his eye-popping 94th percentile finish in 2019, when there was more data to tell a true story. To put that in perspective, Brandon Nimmo, who played 44 games in CF last season for the Mets, ranked in the 2nd percentile, meaning 98 percent of centerfielders were better at chasing down fly balls than him.
While Springer could move over to a corner position as he ages (a likelihood), ideally, those spots are reserved during the next few years (at least) for Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo or whoever else the team decides to bring in to play the outfield.
Paying all of that money for Springer gives you the hope that he can solve the centerfield problem for a while.
However, looking at centerfielders past their Age 31 seasons over the past ten years, you will notice that not many have reached high performance outcomes. In fact, only three have produced more WAR in their later years than what Springer was able to produce over his previous 173 games (which is 2019 plus a shortened 2020 campaign).
When you expand the filter above to include all outfield positions, the numbers look much more promising. Centerfielders cover the most ground, require a quick first step, and overall speed, things that generally don’t age well, which is why there are many negative defensive values in the table above, and why it makes sense to expect that Springer might have to move to a corner position as he ages, which is fine, as long as he can play a stellar center for a few more years and keep up his production at the plate over the long run.
The Mets are looking to bolster their lineup without sacrificing the farm (pour one out for Brodie). Since the Astros extended a qualifying offer to Springer, New York would forfeit a draft pick after the fourth round if they end up signing him. While they aren’t in a position to give away any future assets, that would be a relatively low cost for adding a star player.
We can talk about how we feel about Springer’s involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal or worry about his age or the draft pick compensation, but the point is none of those things are enough to lose excitement over the possibility of the Mets signing one of the best all-around player on the open market.
Let’s see who is left standing with the final rose this week.
Thanks for reading! More to come on Wednesday!
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When the Mets signed Pedro no way was he going to complete that contract but that one move brought them back to respectability. It was worth every penny ! - would be the same here with Springer but would try for only 3 years.