🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
2020 is like the bad guy in a horror movie, now that it’s behind us, you keep running away and you never look back; but if we rewind the tape to focus on the Mets, we will remember that when Steve Cohen first took over as owner of the team, the idea was for Sandy Alderson to find a president of baseball operations, someone who would represent the baseball equivalent of having the wealthiest owner in sports. It was time to hire the best and the brightest.
However, once the Mets weren’t able to do that, they pivoted in searching for a General Manager “who could potentially grow into that role” and hired Jared Porter.
Shortly after that, in a bit of surprising news, they landed the candidate considered the second choice for GM and Porter’s former colleague from Boston, Zack Scott.
The Mets failed at hiring a POBO mostly because teams wouldn’t allow them to interview candidates for what would be considered a “lateral move.” But they were able to work out an agreement with the Red Sox (they can no longer poach talent) to let Scott make such a move to an assistant GM position, perhaps because being “runner-up” to Porter really means being next in line.
Whenever Alderson rides off into the sunset, Porter could easily become the team president with Scott assuming GM duties. It’s like a promotion in waiting.
What does the Scott hire mean?
⓵ Scott becomes the face of an analytics department that as recently as 2018 had the fewest staff members in the National League. While Adam Guttridge added to it under Brodie Van Wagenen, the Mets still remain woefully behind the competition in employing analysts who know how to use data to evaluate players.
I could write for days about scouting and analytics, but what’s most important to note in this piece is that both are important—they are like fruits and vegetables in an organization’s nutritional diet. While some clubs prioritize one over the other, we know teams well-fed in data generally perform better than those sticking to the Paleo diet of strictly stone-aged scouting techniques.
As Porter told FanGraphs in 2019:
“There’s been a lot of growth, not just with [the Red Sox], but in the industry. As you know, there’s been an explosion of data. Throwing out round-number estimates, when I started there were around 10,000 data points, and now it’s more like 10 billion data points. And a lot of that has been the last five years. So the need to grow is apparent; there’s only so much you can do with a short staff.”
The Mets wouldn’t hire Porter unless they are planning on expanding their analytics department, which we know will be a point of emphasis for a Cohen-run team, given he made billions making bets off algorithms.
Of course, all of the data points in the world can’t replace what a scout like Jim Reeves can see. Or put a different way, what an area scout learns traveling to small ballparks where TrackMan technology isn’t available carries significant value. And even where tracking technology is installed, the information a scout gains, such as learning whether a player is likely to accept their signing bonus, or if a slight tweak to their swing can result in a better launch angle, simply become more data points. Data that is then unique to your organization, and thus, potentially a competitive advantage.
With Porter’s extensive experience in scouting from the Cape Cod League to the professional ranks, hopefully, he will consider the proper balance between analytics and good ol’ fashion scouting while leading the Mets’ front office. The balance should be realized in having both Porter and Scott on the same staff.
⓶ Scott represents a branch under Porter that is not tied to Alderson or any previous regime. Ironically, when the Mets cleaned house and fired Brodie, they also got rid of some front office executives who had connections with their most recent hires. Former assistant GM Allard Baird acted as a mentor to Porter in Boston. And former head of player development Jared Banner also overlapped with Porter and Scott’s time in Beantown.
Now the two former Red Sox executives, who have known each other since they started in the organization as interns over 15 years ago, join a Mets front office that is filled with many of Sandy Alderson’s lieutenants—from his son, who is the head of professional scouting, Bryn Alderson, to the stars of the scouting staff in Tommy Tanous and Marc Tramuta, who are chiefly responsible for the Mets finishing 5th in Baseball America’s ranking of the best drafting teams of the 2010s.
For all the recent criticism about the Mets lack of high-quality depth in their farm system, including from the new owner, you can’t blame the people scouting the talent. If Brodie listened to Nas, he would have known that buck that bought a bottle could’ve struck the lotto. But instead he purchased a 40 oz. of Robinson Cano in just one of the several deals he made that traded away prospects for win-now players.
Every unfortunate event brings with it an opportunity. The Mets have a new lease on life with the Wilpons out of the picture. And as COVID continues to impact society at large, MLB owners are slashing expenses and cutting their scouting departments, leaving an opening for Steve Cohen to use his financial might and Hedge Fund shark mentality to strike.
As Jacob Resnick of MetsMerized Online (and one of the most plugged in people on the farm system) reminded me on a call this week, it wasn’t long ago when we learned the Mets hadn’t scouted a player below full-season ball. Beyond beefing up their analytics department, the Amazins need to invest in professional scouts. They can gain a competitive advantage as everyone else reduces their staff in response to COVID or uses the proliferation of technology as an excuse to cut ties with real scouts.
“While the Mets have done a wonderful job finding first round talent,” Resnick told me. “To be like the Dodgers and Rays, they need to do a better job identifying steals late in the draft or hidden on other organizations’ rosters.”
This is where it will be interesting to watch how Alderson, Porter, and Scott work together to build out their front office and scouting department, supplementing the valuable resources already in place with new voices who can help the turn Mets into perennial contenders.
MORNING BRIEFING
Below are the additional sections that were sent in the original email newsletter this morning. We later move the analysis section to the top of this page for linking purposes.
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds...
🗣 HELPING HAND: The Mets are showing interest in left-handed closer Brad Hand, per Jon Heyman.
ECONOMICS: In a sign of the times, the three-time All-Star, Hand, was released by the Cleveland Indians after they decided they didn’t want to pay his $10MM team option for 2021. Surprisingly, no team claimed him off waivers, although, Sandy Alderson indicated in November that perhaps the Mets would have “if the timing had been a little different” with their ownership transfer.
PERFORMANCE: Despite some concerning trends on his fastball and slider (which I will detail in tomorrow’s newsletter given nothing else important materializes), Hand continues to get people out. He pitched to a 2.05 ERA last season and converted all 16 of his save opportunities.
🇯🇵 NO SUGANO: The Mets are “not in” on Japanese free agent starter Tomoyuki Sugano, per Joel Sherman. Jon Heyman reports “it appears their main focus is elsewhere.” Sugano’s deadline to sign with a major league club is technically not until Thursday, but he will need to make a decision by Tuesday to have everything finalized in time.
🗣 SPRINGER WATCH: The Blue Jays have given some the impression they would offer at least $125 million to George Springer, per Sportsnet. On SNY’s Baseball Night in New York, Jim Duquette says he heard Toronto has offered an “aggressive” 5-year contract, but not in the $150 million range.
🍎 COHEN RESPONDS: As fans tagged the new owner of the Mets on Twitter about the team’s lack of activity on the free agent market (even though they have been the most active team in baseball so far), Cohen was quick to respond, “Let me put it differently. Don’t you think someone will take our money. It just makes sense.” He also added, “I don’t need to be popular, I just need to make good decisions.”
🔝 TOP PROSPECTS: Baseball Prospectus released their 2021 Top 10 Prospect list for the Mets with infielder Ronny Mauricio landing #1, followed by RHP Matthew Allan, and C Francisco Alvarez.
ON ALVAREZ: “Alvarez is down a spot on this list, but don’t mistake that for us being down on him. His stock is actually slightly up, it’s just that Allan’s stock is up more.”
📚 ON THIS DATE IN 1994: Following a dreadful 1993 season that included a firecracker throwing incident at Dodger Stadium, the Mets parted ways with outfielder Vince Coleman by sending him to Kansas City and reuniting with Kevin McReynolds.
BACK STORY: “After a Mets-Dodgers game here on July 24, Coleman dropped from a car what he said he believed to be a firecracker in the players' parking lot at Dodger Stadium. The explosion injured three bystanders, including a 3-year-old girl. Fire investigators later determined Coleman had ignited an M-100, used by the military to simulate grenades. The Mets have vowed that the 32-year-old outfielder will never again play for them. He has a guaranteed $3 million contract for next season.” (via NY Times)
💔 REMEMBERING TUG McGRAW…
⚾️ Free agent closer Liam Hendriks was seen visiting the Blue Jays’s complex in Florida, according to Sportsnet. The Mets, Dodgers, White Sox and Astros have also been tied to the reliever.
⚾️ The Giants signed veteran backstop Curt Casali to a one-year, $1.5 million deal.
⚾️ Free agent Corey Kluber will throw for teams on January 13, per Jon Morosi.
⚾️ Yasiel Puig is drawing interest from multiple teams, including the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Marlins and Orioles, per Mark Feinsand.
⚾️ Former ESPN broadcaster Jon "Boog" Sciambi will replace Len Kasper as the new TV play-by-play announcer for the Chicago Cubs.
⚾️ Sandra Scully, wife of Dodgers legendary broadcaster Vin Scully, dies at 76.
Interesting links from other sites…
🔗 An Intriguing Similarity Between Miguel Castro and Edwin Diaz, by Matt Musicologists, MetsMerized Online: “So, where exactly does Diaz come into the picture? I’m glad you asked. When looking at Castro’s pitch-by-pitch breakdown, what jumped out at me was that both his slider and changeup produced a strikeout rate north of 40.0%. That got me thinking as to whether or not any other Mets relievers did that in 2020.”
🔗 ‘I wish I had taken steroids’: How marijuana testing wrecked baseball careers, by Brittany Ghiroli, The Athletic: “In December 2019, natural cannabinoids (including marijuana, THC and CBD) were removed from MLB’s banned substance list. That means — assuming there is a minor league season in 2021 — it will be the first time players not on a 40-man roster can smoke without fear of retribution. In 2019, more than a dozen minor league players were suspended for marijuana, which previously was lumped with heroin and LSD as drugs of abuse. Industry sources estimate about 80 percent of positive “drug of abuse” tests were for marijuana.”
🔗 A look at home runs of Pete Alonso in the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season, by Chris Flanders, Mets360: “I decided to analyze each at bat leading to all 53 of Alonso’s home runs [in 2019]. Much to my surprise, he covered a lot of the plate, in particular the outer half, and from low to up in the zone. What looked like a hole was the inner part of the plate, although perhaps this was him being pitched away more than his inability to cover the inner half.”
Thanks for reading! Talk to you tomorrow!
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