Mets keep Fightin Phils
Morning Dose: Friday, May 17
☀️ Good Morning:
In a wild game of batted balls off Philly pitchers, wild pitches and blown leads, the Mets escaped with an extra-inning victory to salvage the final game of a home-and-home, four-game set with the Phillies.
The win could turn out to be one of 70 in a mediocre and disappointing season, or a possible spark after the manager and several veterans met following Wednesday’s loss to rally the troops.
“He’s been consistent since spring training. To stay positive, stay in the moment, stay present and breathe. He reiterated those things last night to us,” Harrison Bader said of his managers’ message, via SNY. “At times where we’re dropping games, we’re so zoomed in. He provided us with some perspective, and just a different look to be able to zoom out and realize the things we’re doing well on all sides of the ball.”
The Mets showed resiliency on Thursday, exchanging leads with the Phillies and surviving another Edwin Díaz blown save.
After losing five of seven to the Braves and Phillies, the Amazins hope for a reprieve against the last-place Marlins this weekend.
We have a jam-packed newsletter this morning, offering key takeaways from last night, a deep dive into Jeff McNeil’s swing data, and of course, all of the latest news and notes, including a reported international signing.
☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
🍎 Winning Time
Harrison Bader didn’t start the night on the lineup card, but he sure made a difference by the end.
Inserted as a pinch-runner in the sixth, he quickly found himself in an important spot in the eighth, lining a ball off Phillies reliever Jeff Hoffman to drive in the tying run after the Phillies had taken the lead the inning before.
Impressive: Bader’s clutch hit came on a 1–2 count after both Francisco Lindor and J.D. Martinez had struck out with the tying run on second.
The former Yankee wasn’t done there, as he hit another ball hard in the 11th to move Martinez, who had given the Mets the lead to start the inning, over to third, where he would later score on a wild pitch and become the eventual game-winning run.
Road warrior: Bader’s overall numbers don’t jump off the page, but he has proven to be a key contributor in wins this season. His .349 batting average in games the Mets earn a W leads the team (min. 50 PAs).
⚾️ Still not close
🔻 Francisco Lindor: It was a feel-good win on Thursday, but that doesn’t hide another poor performance by the shortstop. After struggling defensively on Wednesday, he made a nice play turning a one hopper last night. But he remains lost at the plate.
O-fer: Lindor went 0-for-5 Thursday, whiffing on 5 of his 12 swings, striking out three times, to finish a dreadful 0-for-16 in the four games against Philadelphia.
On the interstate: The reigning Silver Slugger winner is batting .194 on the season.
Stearns: “I fully expect with Francisco Lindor we're going to look up at the end of the year and he's going to have a Francisco Lindor-type year,” the Mets president told reporters on Thursday.
🔻 Edwin Díaz kept the ball in the park, but once again command doomed him. He immediately fell behind against the first batter he faced, ultimately walking him, and then allowed him to advance to second on a wild pitch, a fatal mistake once Bryson Stott found a hole on the right side to drive him home (on an 0–2 count).
Mechanical issues: Díaz continues to work with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner to find his rhythm. He leaned on his slider (16 times) more than his fastball (9 times) on Thursday.
Slow things down: Lindor tried to help Díaz during a timeout, telling him to slow down. Remember, since Díaz missed last season, this is his first exposure to the pitch clock.
Accountability: “I was a year out, but that’s no excuse,” Díaz said after blowing his third save in his past four tries.
😓 Is Jeff McNeil pressing?
Count me as one of the stat nerds having plenty of fun diving through the new bat-tracking data. While we are still figuring out what it all means, I did find something interesting about Jeff McNeil.
🏎️ Bat speed: A key early takeaway from the new data is that bat speed doesn’t necessarily translate to better results. In fact, one of the game’s best hitters, Luis Arraez, swings slower than 99% of the players in baseball. Where he finds success is making flush contact — squaring up on the ball — which allows him to maximize the…
Which brings us back to Mr. McNeil. He also has a slower bat speed. When things are going well, he slaps the ball to all fields and finds base hits on well-placed balls more than he does by hitting rockets into the gap.
What I found interesting looking at McNeil’s bat-tracking data from this season is the distribution of his bat speed relative to his Squared-up Rate. Over an admittedly small sample, we notice a trend between his Swing Speed and Squared-up Rate: since the beginning of May, he is swinging faster, while making less ideal contact.
Could this be a sign of a player trying to do too much at the plate?
It might explain why McNeil’s production has plummeted in the month of May. He went from a slow start that still translated into a 102 wRC+ to hitting 40% below league average (60 wRC+) with an uncharacteristic 15% strikeout rate.
Context is very important when looking at swing data. Initial research shows bat speed correlates with pitch count: players tend to speed up their swings when they are ahead in the count. However, that doesn’t appear to explain the phenomenon for McNeil, who has been swinging harder when behind in the count, a position he has found himself in nearly 20% more often since May 1.
Swing length: His swing is also getting longer. Another deviation from what you would expect from a struggling hitter. Instead of simplifying things, he is extending his swing and trying to make hard contact in unfavorable counts.
Again, we still have a lot to learn about bat-tracking data. But something to consider as McNeil continues to slump.
🚶 MAKING STRIDES: After pausing his rehab progression to focus on his mechanics, Kodai Senga is slowly getting to a better spot. “I think we’ve had a good bullpen where he felt he was making some strides,” Stearns said before yesterday’s game. “I don’t know exactly when we’ll get him out on a rehab assignment — that’s the next big step here — but I think we all feel better about it, maybe here than we did five or six days ago.”
😎 PUT ON A HAPPY FACE: A day after posting and deleting a tweet that suggests the team might be sellers again at the deadline, Steve Cohen clarified his thoughts to Andy Martino. “I believe in this team,” Cohen said. “I believe in the back of the baseball card. It’s way too early to speculate on anything. It’s May 16. I expect to make the playoffs. I know the fan base is frustrated, but it’s still early. We’re still very capable of making the playoffs. I fully expect to make the playoffs.”
💰 INTERNATIONAL SIGNING: The Mets intend to allocate $5 million of their $6,261,600 international bonus pool to sign 16-year-old Dominican shortstop Elian Peña, as first reported by Baseball America.
The Athletic: “Multiple rival evaluators labeled Peña as a top-tier talent and said he could be the best player in next year’s class. The international signing period opens on Jan. 15, 2025, so things won’t become official until then.”
📝 ROSTER MOVES: Joey Lucchesi was optioned and replaced by lefty reliever Josh Walker. Meanwhile, Drew Smith is feeling better after experiencing discomfort in his shoulder earlier this week. He will likely need another rehab appearance before being activated.
Brandon Nimmo was scratched from Thursday’s lineup due to a stomach bug.
🗓️ UP NEXT: It’s Christian Scott day! The young right-hander (0–1, 2.84) will take on southpaw Jesús Luzardo, who is winless in six starts (0–3, 5.97). As planned, Mark Vientos will get a chance to shine this weekend against back-to-back lefty starters.
The Mets are expected to start Tylor Megill on Monday against Cleveland.
◾️ Juan Soto and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner are open to contract negotiations during the season. “We'd like to see him here for the rest of his career,” Steinbrenner told the YES Network. “I don't think there's any doubt in that.”
◾️ Dodgers pitcher Emmet Sheehan underwent surgery to repair an ulnar collateral ligament Wednesday and will miss the rest of the season.
🔗 Mets hoping for Alec Bohm type breakthrough for Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, by Mark W. Sanchez, NY Post: “The Mets do not have to look far to find hope with their unproven but talented third basemen. They could have just peeked at the opposing hot corner the past few days. Alec Bohm was the third overall pick in 2018. He immediately emerged as one of the best prospects in baseball and shot through the Phillies’ system, debuting in 2020. He then hit a little and learned a lot.”
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1/2 game out of the playoffs!
Even though I consider myself the vice president of the "expanded playoffs are bad for baseball" club; I'm not above celebrating the fact that being around a .500 team might be good enough to be a playoff team and will almost certainly be good enough to be in the hunt when my team is a ~.500 team. This was an ugly week, glad they salvaged the last one in both series. But, good reminder that we will not be playing the Braves and Phillies every game.
I think spending $20m on a closer is not a great use of resources because of the volatility but the value in having a top shelf closer is pretty evident when said top shelf closer is fighting through it. Hopefully Diaz finds his command. I'm not going to excuse this week and a half in full, but I do think missing an entire season isn't nothing.
I would sign up for one of Baty/Vientos becoming Bohm and that was before Bohm's start to this season. In fact I wouldn't need to think twice about it. It would help immensely if one of them was a serviceable 3B.
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While I can still comment here, for some reason my like button isn't working. The reply button does though. I click on the like button and it won't or doesn't tell me that I've liked a certain comment.