Marcus Stroman the first sign of life in AC Time

The debut of Mets Briefing.

Hey Mets fans!

I am going to assume you found this newsletter because you follow my work on the Knicks. That means you have suffered a lot like me over the years. Hopefully, we are on the cusp of something special … with both teams! Learn more about why I am starting this newsletter here.

I plan on publishing today and tomorrow to get us going, and then every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday going forward. Let’s talk Mets baseball!

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Catch me up in 30 seconds…

• Jacob deGrom finished third in Cy Young Award voting (Trevor Bauer won).

• Michael Hill becomes the first candidate to interview for head of baseball operations with the Mets.

• Trevor Bauer said it was “refreshing to hear” Sandy Alderson talk about him being a good fit for a big market team.

Anthony DiComo @AnthonyDiComo

Trevor Bauer with an interesting response to Sandy Alderson's comments that he would be a good fit for the New York market:

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Marcus Stroman is coming back

Decisions impacting the New York Mets must now be viewed in two timeframes:

1. Before Cohen became owner (BC), and

2. After Cohen became owner (AC)

When news broke that Marcus Stroman had agreed to accept his $18.9 million qualifying offer, it quickly became apparent that we are living in AC Time. The decision was first reported by a Mets blog - the great MetsMerized Online - and confirmed by Stroman, himself, who received a Twitter reply from the owner thanking him for signing and letting him know that he will call him in a few days.

“Hey Marcus! First time, long time. I’m Steve from Long Island. Let’s talk about 2021.”

And his new pitcher will probably respond with something similar to what he tweeted out to the public:

“After watching the presser, I’m beyond excited to play for you sir,” Stroman tweeted on Wednesday. “I could feel the excitement and passion you’re going to bring daily. Let’s go be great! @StevenACohen2”

Putting aside how the news broke, there’s more reason to celebrate AC Time. Players seem genuinely excited about playing in Queens. And Mets fans can view signings in terms of how it helps the roster instead of how it impacts the bottom line. Yes, payroll still matters, even when you are a big market team. The luxury tax is a real thing; we have seen the league’s wealthiest teams shy away from it—hello Boston Red Sox, so long Mookie Betts.

But Mets fans no longer need to shudder in fear when the team spends some money, as if the team’s payroll was directly linked to their own personal checking account. It’s all about winning now, so let’s talk about what Stroman’s decision means.

It’s hard to divorce an evaluation of Stroman from the price it took to originally acquire him. While that is a sunk cost now, being in a favorable position to keep the 5-foot-7 starter for the first season of Cohen Ball is a positive and makes you at least pause for a split second before cursing Brodie Van Wagenen under your breath.

After making 11 starts in the weeks following the trade with the Blue Jays, Stroman was injured before this past season and ultimately decided to opt out of playing due to coronavirus concerns. By agreeing to return in 2021, the right-hander gives the Mets a legitimate starter in their rotation, perhaps the third guy in a 1-2-3 punch that could be the best in baseball if Cohen adds a marquee player to pitch a day after Jacob deGrom.

But there is another way to look at this. The reason teams extend qualifying offers to free agents like Stroman is to give themselves the opportunity to receive draft pick compensation if the player signs somewhere else. Had Stroman declined the qualifying offer, he would have been one of the top free agent starters this offseason. The Mets could have recouped some of the assets they used to acquire him by netting a future draft pick.

Besides Stroman, starter Kevin Gausman, who shares the same agent, also accepted his qualifying offer. Perhaps a sign of what we should expect this winter as teams react to a 2020 season without fans.

From the player’s standpoint, Stroman’s decision is both logical and a bit risky. Even as one of the top starters on the market, why try to sign a long-term deal when everyone’s operating under budget constraints and draft pick compensation is tied to his name? Especially coming off a season in which he didn’t pitch. If he has an impressive season in 2021, he can look for a big payday next winter. Which all sounds good until you remember Major League Baseball is headed toward Armageddon as they negotiate a new CBA. There are risks in waiting, too.

Entering this offseason, only eight of the 90 players who have received qualifying offers since 2012, have accepted it. We are living in strange times, both for the Mets, as an overnight big spend team, and for Major League Baseball, as a financially strapped industry (that is, if you listen to the majority of owners, which you really shouldn’t).

By securing Stroman’s services for 2021, the Mets will boast a starting rotation that includes deGrom, rookie standout David Peterson and eventually Noah Syndergaard. If the team decides against chasing Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer, or even a second-tier starter, Stroman guarantees them a rotation with at least top-end depth.

And since we started this piece talking about money, we might as well end there. Adding Stroman’s $18.9 million salary to the books puts the Mets’ luxury tax payroll, including estimates by FanGraphs for players not yet eligible for arbitration and on the 40-man roster in the minor leagues, at about $157 million, which is well under the initial $210 million tax threshold. In other words, the Mets can spend $53 million before Steve Cohen needs to sell a painting to sign another player.

It feels good to live in AC Time.

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