🧑🦱 by Blake Zeff
During the Alderson interview, one question left the Mets president without a clear answer: the perennial dilemma of whether versatile righty Seth Lugo will pitch in the starting rotation, or out of the bullpen. Asked by Heyman point blank how he envisions Lugo being used, Sandy said he didn’t know, but suggested it would depend on the composition of the rest of the pitching staff that his front office assembles.
Given Lugo’s success as a reliever, keeping him in the pen may seem like the obvious call. But is it a no-brainer for 2021?
The Lugo Conundrum™ (a term I just made up, but hereby trademark because it’s so insanely catchy) has typically focused on which role the pitcher is better at (more on this in a minute). But this year, Alderson and GM Jared Porter have suggested another factor may also weigh heavily into their general thought process: what opportunities does the external market present, as the Mets fill out their pitching needs?
In other words, which area will the club be able to more efficiently fill through free agency and trades: their rotation or bullpen? Yes, the market is moving at AOL dial-up speed. But the price tag on starters remains high (Trevor Bauer will likely pull in a nine-figure contract, Jake Odorizzi is reportedly seeking three years at around $40 million, and Japanese star Tomoyuki Sugano flew back to Japan, rather than settle for less than the 4-year, $40 million deal he got with Yomiuri).
Even with the acquisition of Carlos Carrasco, the Mets still need more starting pitching (until Noah Syndergaard returns, your 5th starter without Lugo is currently Steven Matz, and any depth behind that is likely not on the current roster). Meanwhile, Lugo can be a cost-effective option to plug into the back end of a rotation that no longer requires him to be any more than a 4th or 5th starter behind Jacob deGrom, Carrasco and Marcus Stroman (plus David Peterson).
I know, I know. The Mets need a fortified bullpen, too (possibly even more so than rotation help at this point). And the idea of Lugo resuming his usual role as a lights-out, multi-inning force late in the game, is like the Pat LaFrieda steak sandwich at the promenade food court (appetizing and familiar).
So let’s assess the markets for each -- starting and relieving -- in helping analyze the best answer to the Lugo usage debate. But first, a quick word or two about Lugo’s abilities to perform both jobs.
As a reliever, Lugo has been lights out throughout his career:
But while he’s been an elite reliever, there are limits to what he can do out of the pen. As Mets fans know, the spin-rate king has a partially torn UCL and is unable to relieve on consecutive days (for what it’s worth, Lugo claims these restrictions have less to do with his elbow than the fact that he often goes multiple innings).
Either way, these usage rules limit how and when he can be used in relief, and effectively disqualify him as a closer (he has 12 career saves over parts of five seasons). Obviously, as a starter, the consecutive days problem is a non-issue.
So, how about his record as a starter? Lugo was huge for the club during the playoff drive in 2016, coming out of nowhere to hold down a rotation spot when Matz, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom all went down. Last year, he was asked to stretch himself mid-season and extend from a reliever to starter in real time. The results were mixed — with early dominance (1.54 ERA, 20 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings, over his first three starts), but difficulty sustaining it (6 ER in two of his last three starts). Considering how odd (and short) that 2020 stint was, you can decide for yourself how much value to place in that sample.
But back to our market analysis: If Lugo does stay in the pen, acquiring another reliable, quality starter will be hard and costly. Obviously, Bauer is destined for a massive payday (that the Mets are unlikely to provide after adding $30+ million in salary from the trade with Cleveland) -- and for the 29 clubs who miss out on him, the remaining pickin’s are slim. Turnaround projects like Robbie Ray (coming off a 6.62 ERA in 51 2/3 innings), Anthony DeSclafani (7.22 ERA in 33 2/3 innings) and Mike Minor (two years, $18 million, after a 5.56 over 56 2/3) already got solid MLB deals, with risky, oft-injured veterans like Corey Kluber and James Paxton starting to attract interest.
By contrast, if Lugo’s a starter, replacing his bullpen contributions with outside help should be easier and more cost-effective. Relievers are more abundant in this market, with a slew of high-leverage late-inning arms out there for the taking.
Yes, relief ace Liam Hendriks just nabbed a generous deal (four years at an average yearly value of $13.5 MM). But many quality bullpen arms remain, and the asking price won’t be nearly as high. In fact, the tier after Hendriks should be very affordable.
Here’s why: Lefty closer Brad Hand leads the next group of remaining free agent relievers — and when Cleveland out-righted him after the World Series, any other club could have had him for one year at $10 million, but they declined… clearly setting Hand’s value below that mark. Add to that mix of available, affordable, quality relief arms: Alex Colome, Trevor Rosenthal, Pedro Baez, Kirby Yates and Mark Melancon. And then another tier including names like Jeremy Jeffress, Shane Greene, Archie Bradley, Greg Holland, Jake McGee, Sean Doolittle and even old friend Justin Wilson. Given this high volume — and the fact that relievers historically cost way less than starters — it may be much easier to replace Lugo’s relief innings (with perhaps two late-inning arms) than acquire another starter who won’t risk blowing up 20 percent of your games.
One mitigating factor to consider that’s particular to the 2021 Mets: As everyone knows, Syndergaard will hopefully return mid-season from Tommy John surgery. You can’t bank on that, but having a flexible solution (Lugo) to plug in his spot and “keep it warm” for him when he returns (or stay in there if he’s delayed), might be a nice luxury. In this scenario, Lugo begins the year in the rotation, having a couple of months to prepare for the role. He then pitches the first half as a starter, and when Thor returns, Lugo can then go to the pen (almost like a Trade Deadline improvement to both your rotation and pen). If there are injuries in the rotation at that point (or Seth excels in the role), you keep him where he is.
THE PAYOFF PITCH: A starter who gives you 5-6 good innings is an increasingly endangered species... as anyone who watched Matz, Ariel Jurado, Walker Lockett, Robert Gsellman, Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello last year, can attest. While returning Lugo to the pen is a perfectly reasonable call, another sensible one could be to hedge your bets by efficiently bolstering the bullpen in other ways, and using Lugo as a placeholder in the rotation until there’s more clarity around the All-Star break.
MORNING BRIEFING
Below are the additional sections that were sent in the original email newsletter this morning. We later move the analysis section to the top of this page for linking purposes.
⏰ Catch me up on the Carlos Carrasco press conference…
👋 PLEASED TO MEET YOU: Carlos “Cookie” Carrasco was introduced by the New York Mets on Tuesday. A few key takeaways…
Just a good person…
Mets fans are quickly learning their favorite team didn’t only acquire a great pitcher, but an all-around great person.
🎗 In 2019, Carrasco was honored with MLB’s Roberto Clemente Award for his humanitarian efforts on three continents: “Every other Sunday in the offseason, Carlos and his wife, Karry, shop, cook, box, and distribute 500 lunches to the homeless from the front porch of their home in Tampa, Florida,” is just one example cited in MLB’s press release announcing the achievement.
🗽 On Tuesday, the veteran starter said he is excited about doing the same community work in New York: “I can’t wait to get there with my family to start giving back to the community.”
High hopes for the Mets…
🏆 “We have a great team and we are going to make it to the playoffs, even to the World Series, too.”
“Right now the rotation is real good, strong, with deGrom in there, Stroman, Syndergaard, all those guys…I am really happy to join that rotation. It’s getting me excited [thinking about it].”
Watch the full Carlos Carrasco press conference
🗞 More news…
🏥 COVID RELIEF: Mayor Bill de Blasio and Mets owner Steve Cohen announced on Tuesday that Citi Field will become a “24/7 mega vaccination site” beginning in the end of January.
🍎 NEW COACH: Former MLB reliever and Driveline Baseball analyst Carter Capps announced on Twitter that he will be joining the Mets as a minor league pitching coach/coordinator.
🗣 MUTUAL INTEREST: Andy Martino of SNY wrote on Twitter yesterday that there is some “mutual interest” between the Mets and free agent infielder DJ LeMahieu, while noting “there's a long way from that to a big contract.”
🗣 HAND: The Mets are one of several teams interested in signing free agent reliever Brad Hand to a one-year deal for slighlty less than $10 million, per SNY.
🍎 FORMER EXEC: Jared Banner — the executive director of player development under Brodie Van Wagenen — has been hired by the Cubs as vice president of special projects, per Mike Puma.
😥 MISSED: White Sox starter Lucas Giolito told The Athletic that new Mets catcher James McCann will be greatly missed by the entire pitching staff.
Sandy Alderson Interview
We thought the big press conference of the day would be from Cookie Carrasco, but we were pleasantly surprised listening to a podcast interview by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman of Sandy Alderson later in the day, which proved quite revealing. Here are some key excerpts.
🔸 Alderson said he has only met Steve Cohen in person once, partly due to COVID restrictions. His hiring was facilitated by Andy Cohen (no relation), who is the owner’s personal investor and right-hand confidante.
🔸 Analytics: Alderson noted they are “rebuilding” the R&D, analytics department. He has been impressed by Cohen’s investment in all areas of the organization.
🔸 Sandy took a subtle shot at the previous regime by noting “it’s new for the Mets” not to have trade rumors leak to the press as the team pulled off the Lindor trade in relative secrecy.
🔸 On the Lindor/Carrasco trade: Original conversations with Cleveland started back in November, focused on players other than Lindor and Carrasco. It became clear reading the media reports that Lindor might be available and the Mets obviously got more aggressive.
Impact of McCann signing: “Look, every choice has its consequences. Let’s say, hypothetically that we had signed Realmuto instead of McCann. Would we still have been actively engaged with Lindor and Carrasco? I don’t know. I think you have to look at the totality of the situation, and the fact that we chose to go in a another direction behind the plate may have put us in the right posture to do Lindor/Carrasco.”
🔸 Interesting market: “What’s interesting is the trade market has worked at a little different pace than the free agent market. I think in some cases clubs are afraid that a team like ours might go a free agent route so before that happens, they engage. Unfortunately, the free agent market is pretty much paralyzed right now.”
🔸 On moves that still need to be made: “We are going to need some additional players, even if they are not starters.”
🔸 On George Springer: “If you look at our roster right now in terms of starters, guys we would like to put in the outfield, we really only have two...We definitely have some work to do...We want to make sure we are not overly left-handed...Given the level of excitement and enthusiasm surrounding the Mets, I don’t think we’ve been crossed off his list...And that’s for tactical reasons as well as other reasons...I would say we are still engaged in a loose sense with Springer”
🔸 On Dom Smith: “Dom’s not going anywhere.”
🎧 Listen to the full episode here:
⚾️ Fans will not be required to show proof of vaccination or negative COVID-19 test upon entering a ballpark this year, per a memo sent to teams by MLB on Monday and obtained by the LA Times.
⚾️ Rival executives would be “shocked” if Boston Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi wasn’t traded this week, per Mark Feinsand.
⚾️ The Rockies and right-handerAntonio Senzatela have avoided arbitration in reaching a one-year, $3 million agreement, per FanSided.
⚾️ The Tigers and former Met Michael Fulmer avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $3.1 million contract, per USA Today.
⚾️ The Brewers will sign free-agent infielder Daniel Robertson on a one-year deal, major-league contract, per FanSided.
🔗 Mets can flex muscles in different way if they want Corey Kluber, by Joel Sherman, NY Post: “Obviously, there are a lot of moving parts here. Kluber has to look good Wednesday, the Mets have to be interested, Kluber has to want to play for them and the sides have to agree to that bells-and-whistles contract. But this should be taken as an indicator of what the Mets can do now. Cohen’s arrival allows their fans to dream of the mansions and the penthouses in player procurement. Welcome Lindor/Carrasco. It also puts them in a better position to be bold on the other side of the market in attempts to find difference makers.”
🔗 Ronny Mauricio listed as Mets top international prospect by MLB Pipeline: “Mauricio has continued to add strength to his ultra-athletic, 6-foot-3, 166-pound frame since signing with the Mets for $2.1 million in July 2017. Scouts believe that physical development will eventually translate to consistent game power for the 19-year-old shortstop -- a switch-hitter who produced a .268/.307/.357 line with 29 extra-base hits over 116 games with Class A Columbia during his 2019 full-season debut.”
🔗 Mets 2021 projections: Jeff McNeil, by Brian Joura, Mets360: “For a guy who’s been in the majors a couple of years now, the computer models have some difference of opinion. The RBIs for Steamer and the OPS (.877) for RC stand out from the others. And perhaps it’s not surprising that there isn’t more agreement with McNeil, because it doesn’t seem like he knows himself what type of hitter he wants to be. On top of that, it’s certainly not set in stone where he’ll hit in the lineup, which will certainly influence his RBI opportunities.”
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The Lugo Conundrum
Great "edition" today ! The best line of it was "Dom's not going anywhere" I did learn something on Lugo based on stats which is very very rare for me lol