J.D. Martinez, anyone?
Morning Dose: Wednesday, February 7
☕️ Good Morning:
The Mets could add a legitimate DH after all? Phil Bickford wins his arbitration hearing. The Mets make the Jake Diekman signing official while designating Austin Adams for assignment.
☀️ We are 5 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting. Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
Happening now: There has been “dialogue” between J.D. Martinez’s camp and the Mets, according to Mike Puma. The 36-year-old free agent is coming off a resurgent season with the Dodgers where he mashed 33 home runs and hit 35 points above league average.
A sleeping market: While the Mets have expressed a comfort level with their internal options at designated hitter, there’s no reason they cannot be opportunistic in a slow market.
If the price is right, they might pounce, as Andy Martino has noted and Puma added in his report on Tuesday.
What the “right” price would need to be is unclear. The Athletic has reported prices would need to “dramatically drop” for the Mets to pursue someone like Martinez. MLB Trade Rumors projected in December that Martinez would sign a two-year, $40 million deal.
Creating a market: With Spring Training approaching, expect the rumor mill to kick into high gear as agents start spreading information in hopes of creating a market for their unsigned clients.
🎧 Mets Fix Podcast
Check out the latest episode of the Mets Fix Podcast where we discuss whether the Mets should have been more aggressive pursuing Corbin Burnes, the structure of the bullpen and what Mets and former managers have been saying recently about the team.
🍎 Bullpen Moves
The Mets made the Jake Diekman signing official by designating Austin Adams for assignment. Diekman will earn $4 million in 2024 and has the potential to earn another $4 million in 2025 if he pitches at least 58 games this year.
Payroll: The Mets’ luxury-tax payroll currently sits around $322 million when you account for the minimum number of expected split contracts and 40-man players in the minor-leagues.
Different approach: David Stearns has an affinity for relievers with intriguing stuff — who doesn’t? The key to building a good bullpen is offering opposing teams different looks. As my friends over at FanGraphs point out, Diekman and fellow offseason addition Michael Tonkin throw harder than any other pitcher with similar arm angles.
DFA: As we discussed yesterday, the Mets have several players on the 40-man roster who will eventually need to be exposed to Outright Waivers or traded. The 32-year-old Adams becomes the first domino to fall.
Clever: New York has up to seven days to trade Adams or place him on Outright Waivers. I’m going to guess they will expedite this process in hopes he can pass through waivers before next week when most teams can free up 40-man roster spots by moving injured players to the 60-day IL. As of this morning, only three teams have open 40-man roster spots, meaning most clubs would need to open a roster spot to place a claim on Adams.
Contract details: Since Adams has more than three years of service time, he can also elect free agency instead of joining Syracuse. However, it would be a gamble.
The Amazins signed Adams to a split contract in November that pays him $800,000 for time spent in the majors and $180,000 for time in the minors. While that is barely above league minimum, the contract also includes performance bonuses that could add an additional $500,000 for games pitched.
If another team claims Adams, they will be responsible for his existing contract.
But if Adams immediately elects free agency, his contract is terminated and he forfeits the right to termination pay. He would risk the potential to earn at least $180,000 on his current contract with the Mets if he doesn’t find a new split contract.
Adams can have the best of both worlds by staying with the Mets by deferring his free agency election until the end of the season.
More work to do: The Mets still need to open up another 40-man roster spot to make the Shintaro Fujinami signing official. They could take a similar approach as they are with Diekman/Adams in the next few days, or wait until next week when they can place Ronny Mauricio and David Peterson on the 60-day IL.
🔹 Phil Bickford won his arbitration hearing with the Mets and will be paid $900,000 in 2024. The Mets had filed at $815,000. As hinted at yesterday, by failing to come to terms before a hearing, Bickford’s contract is non-guaranteed. He can be released during Spring Training with only 30 or 45 days of termination pay, depending on when he is released and assuming the Mets can prove he was outperformed by another player.
🔹 Buck Showalter gave his thoughts on load management and the 2023 season, among other things, while appearing on Foul Territory.
On load management: “We had a guy who had a triple and 2 doubles, and they came in and said he probably needs a day off because he ran too much on the bases. So what do you want me to tell him, ‘Don’t get any hits so he can play the next day.’ I didn’t quite understand that one. I said, “Ok, you go tell Brandon Nimmo he can't play today because he did too well last night.”
Keep in mind: Nimmo has played at least 150 games over the past two seasons, which might be a sign that “load management” is working for a player who struggled to remain healthy early in his career.
On the end of the 2023 season: “I still think if we stayed the course we would have slipped in [via] Wild Card. I’m always going to think that,” Showalter said. “They walked in and someone was saying bye to me and I looked up and said, ‘what’s going on?’ Tommy Pham got traded. That’s the first time I knew we were abandoning ship, sorta speak. I had Max Scherzer in there that day because he was trying to make up his mind.”
🔹 PECOTA projects the Mets to finish with an 84-78 record, tied with the Phillies for second place in the National League East.
◾️ José Altuve and the Astros agreed to a five-year, $125 million contract extension that will probably keep him in Houston until the end of his career.
◾️ Clayton Kershaw is returning to the Dodgers on a one-year deal that includes a player option for 2025. Kershaw is recovering from shoulder surgery and likely won’t pitch until August.
🔗 Healthy mix of arms make up Mets' rotation candidates, by Anthony DiComo, MLB: “It seems almost difficult to believe that one year ago, the Mets reported to Spring Training with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander leading what was one of the most heralded rotations of this generation. Things, of course, did not work out quite the way the Mets had hoped. But not everything was bad news for the 2023 rotation, which will look to carry its successes over into a more productive ‘24.”
🔗 When it comes to relievers, the Mets sure have a type, by Kyle Kishimoto, FanGraphs: “With these signings, it’s clear the Mets have a type they’ve coveted in their relief acquisitions – pitchers with high walk rates who succeed via other means. After signing a barrage of large contracts over the past couple years, they’ve toned down the spending a bit this offseason. But these guys, along with the previously signed Jorge López and Phil Bickford, constitute a tremendous upgrade over last year’s relief group. Depth Charts now forecasts them with the 12th best bullpen in the majors. The Mets still have a ways to go before they can contend again, but at least for now, they’ve shored up an area of great need.”
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This is the roster management and contract minutia I come here for!
Now that I'm emotionally and legally committed to the "Plan," acquiring JD Martinez just does not feel right. Only five days. I am starting to smile a lot more.