Jackpot
Morning Dose: Tuesday, December 2
☀️ Good Morning:
Steve Cohen is building his casino, and by the time it’s built, he will still be paying the free agent his baseball team reportedly signed last night.
Devin Williams is crossing town on a reported three-year, $51 million deal that includes deferrals up to 20 years into the future.
Before we get into the details, think about this first a moment:
The Mets are signing one of the top (second best?) relievers on the market, and they are reportedly still negotiating a potential $100 million deal for the game’s best closer.
There is no other team in baseball who would sign these two relievers in the same offseason. You might tell me the Dodgers — they spent a lot on Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates last winter — but that’s not like this; they might not combine to make what Díaz could ultimately fetch, alone.
✉️ We will see if the Díaz pairing comes to reality, but first, let’s breakdown the Williams signing in a jam-packed newsletter that features a special breakdown by Peter Kauffmann on Cohen’s casino deal.
📰 ABOVE THE FOLD
⇢ MINDBENDER
The Mets need bullpen arms and they secured a very good one by signing Devin Williams to a three-year deal on Monday.
THE TERMS: Williams is reportedly inking a three-year, $51 million deal (with no opt outs or options) that includes a $6 million signing bonus to be paid pro-rated over the term of the deal (allowing him to earn some money in the event of a lockout). The Mets will defer $15 million ($5 million per season) that will be paid between 2037 and 2046. There is reportedly a $1 million assignment bonus if he is traded.
Assuming the deferrals will be distributed evenly in the future, Williams’ AAV drops from a straight $17 million to roughly $14.8 million, a ~$2.2 million annual savings that is magnified by the luxury tax savings at the club’s current 110% rate.
Saving money is always good, but don’t get too caught up in the deferrals. People have become obsessed with deferrals as a cheat code for big-market clubs. And they can make a big difference, as they did with Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers. But saving a few million dollars doesn’t move the needle for a team like the Mets. In other words, whether they bring back Díaz or not will have much more to do with the dollars and term of his deal than whether Williams was willing to push some of his earnings into the future.
BIG TAKEAWAY: A three-year deal on a 31-year-old reliever without elite fastball velocity has risks, but it’s an extremely fair price to pay for a guy who has proven to be one of the most dominant shutdown arms in baseball.
I have talked about Ryan Helsley being one of the best bargains this offseason. The Amazins are paying Williams around the same AAV, with only one extra year of term.
WHAT ABOUT SUGAR? The question on everyone’s minds is what this means for Edwin Díaz. Williams was a different pitcher as a setup man for the Yankees last season after being stripped of his closing role in late April due to poor performance.
