☀️ GOOD MORNING:
I’m back from vacation! If you haven’t used a family trip to unplug from the devices that distract us from everything right in front of us, I highly recommend it. Between Mickey Mouse sightings, refereeing fights for the top bunk, and excitedly alerting my wife every time I saw someone wearing a different baseball cap, it was a great trip. To the Tigers fan I talked to by the pool and who said they would look up Mets Fix, I hope you found us and I hope our teams keep our promise to face off in October.
Vacation is a nice escape, but it also has a way of reminding you of the things you value the most about your routine back home. I couldn’t wait to get back to this newsletter. There’s nothing I rather be doing than watching the rest of this season unfold with this wonderful community. We have an exciting several months ahead!
The Mets team I return to already looks a bit different than the one I left only 10 days ago. The rotation is healthier. The bullpen is healthier, banged up and fragile, all at the same time. The lineup remains a mix of potential and frustration, as with the defense.
We are 10 days away from the trade deadline. The National League starting to resemble a recent Electoral Map, with the heartland outplaying the elites on both coasts. As the Brewers (winners of 10 straight) and Cubs hold the top two seeds, the Mets, Phillies, Dodgers and Giants limp along.
As of this morning, FanGraphs gives the Mets an 85% chance of reaching the playoffs, but only a 44% chance to win the division. How David Stearns approaches the deadline will obviously impact those odds. By how much? It’s hard to say. A recent analysis by Dan Szymborski ranked which teams have the most to gain by adding either one or two wins (in terms of WAR) to their bottom line through trade acquisitions.
While the Dodgers remain heavy favorites to reach the World Series no matter what happens, the difference between the Mets, Phillies, Cubs, and Brewers could easily be decided by trade. As you can see in the chart above, the Mets could improve their World Series odds by 6%, or the fifth most in all of baseball, by adding two wins.
Of course, these are all fantasy numbers (albeit educated ones). You don’t need a fancy formula to tell you the Mets would be better if they beat out the Phillies or Dodgers for a top reliever on the trade market. We know the margins are even more thin in October.
With similar needs, this deadline is as much about preventing your competition from improving, as it is about boosting your own roster. The Phillies already jumped the market by signing David Robertson on Sunday evening.
Making trades requires in-house evaluation. Who can the front office count on to surge in the second half? Which of the young players will blossom into legit contributors? When? How healthy will the roster remain? Which reliever will find their groove? Which starters can be counted on? A lot of questions to answer over the next 10 days.
🔼 BACK UP: The Mets are hoping a short stint in Triple-A will help Francisco Álvarez answer one of those questions. The young backstop returns after blasting 11 long balls in 19 games with Syracuse, including six over the past five games while going 9-for-18 at the plate. As we will talk about in a bit, his power his badly needed.
😎 SALVAGED: Alvy’s promotion was announced hours after Luis Torrens drove in the go-ahead run by putting the ball in play and allowing Juan Soto to aggressively score from third. It was a great read by Soto, never hesitating to allow himself to score on a ball that was scorched 102.7 mph to the right side.
A 3–2 win on Sunday salvaged the series against Cincinnati. The Mets quickly turn their attention to an Angels team that is trying to stay in contention (49–50, 4 back of the final wild-card spot) ahead of the trade deadline.
☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
🤝 WHOM DO YOU TRUST?
Picking up on the trade deadline theme, to answer the questions posited above, it comes down to reliability.
Whom can you count on to deliver?
On Sunday, David Peterson reminded everyone they can count on him. On a staff begging for length and consistency, the tall, left-hander has delivered, especially at home where he sports a 1.91 ERA.
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