Good Morning,
đ I will publish on Monday and Wednesday this week. And then starting January 4th, this newsletter will publish every weekday (Monday - Friday). Of course, if something Amazinâ happens, a special edition could come your way.
â° Letâs quickly catch you up on the key stories since the last newsletter was published on December 23:
NEW HIRE: Mets added former Red Sox executive Zack Scott to the front office under GM Jared Porter. Scottâs official title will be Senior Vice President and Assistant GM. He brings 17 years of experience and an analytics mind to the decision-making process. Scott and Porter began their careers together as interns for the Red Sox in 2004. By agreeing to let Scott make a lateral move, the Mets wonât be allowed to poach any more Red Sox front office members through at least the 2021-22 offseason.
Note: I originally planned on writing in detail about the Scott hire, but with so much news to catch up on since the last newsletter, I will cover him in the next issue.
LUXURY TAX: New owner Steve Cohen indicated in a New York Post interview that he is willing to pass the luxury tax threshold, but maybe not this season (more in a bit).
POSTING DEADLINE: The Mets remain one of five teams in pursuit of Japanese starter Tomoyuki Sugano, whose posting deadline to be signed by a major league club is approaching (January 7).
MORE FOREIGN INTEREST: Mets are one of six teams interested in Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim, per South Koreaâs Naver News. His posting deadline is January 2.
đ§ JBâs Take: Whether the Mets end up signing either Sugano or Kim is not as important right now as it is to learn that they appear to be willing to play in the Asian market, an area where they had little scouting presence under the Wilpons. Kim reportedly has several offers in the 5+ year range. MLB Trade Rumors predicted the 25-year-old who hit 133 home runs and stole 134 bases over the past six seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization will net a five-year deal around $40 million.
DONâT YOU KNOW: Speaking of middle infielders, Robinson Cano played his first game for the Estrellas Orientales of the Dominican Winter League and hit a home run in each of his first two plate appearances.
SOULâŚ
If you spent a part of your Christmas Day watching Soul like I did, and if you happen to root for both the Knicks and Mets, you probably came away with mixed feelings about screenwriter and co-director Kemp Powers.
As a Knicks fan, how are you going to troll us like that? As a Mets fan, hey (!) thatâs cool, the Mets were featured like four times in the movie on sweatshirts, barber shop signs, and jerseys. P.S. My daughters liked the movie, so thatâs all that counts.
Remembering Phil Niekro
If Phil Niekroâs father hadnât taught his son how to throw a knuckleball in his backyard, we might not have experienced the Cy Young season of R.A. Dickey with the Mets. Niekroâs influence on the game of baseball canât be understated, so I wanted to reserve some space to remember the pitching legend who passed away yesterday at the age of 81 after a long battle with cancer.
The Hall-of-Famer won 318 games, struck out more batters than all but ten major league pitchers, and found his way into Mets history a few notable times.
1) His influence on R.A. Dickey:
âIn 2008, when R.A. Dickey was a member of the Seattle Mariners and was three years into his own self-taught tutorial on the capricious pitch, he called Mr. Niekro and sought his counsel [âŚ] The two rendezvoused at a batting-and-pitching complex near Mr. Niekro's Atlanta homeâMr. Dickey drove down from his home in Tennesseeâand their meeting proved an important step in Mr. Dickey's rise into the folk hero he's become for the Mets.â [Wall Street Journal]
2) His place as an opponent: Niekro had a career 25-14 record against the Mets, but in 1969, the Miracle Mets beat him four times, including in the National Leagueâs first playoff series when Tom Seaver bested him despite not having his usual stuff. Seaver would later win the Cy Young Award that year with 23 of 24 first place votes (Niekro received the other first place vote).
2020 has been a monstrous year, and baseball hasnât escaped itsâ reach. Niekro becomes the seventh Hall-of-Famer to pass away this year, joining our beloved Seaver, Al Kaline, Lou Brock, Bob Gibson, Whitey Ford, and Joe Morgan in the Field of Dreams somewhere.
How much will the Mets spend?
Steve Cohen has spent more on a piece of art than the Mets have ever paid for the services of a major league player, at least on one contract, which is why fans are salivating over the possibilities of what he will do in the free agent market.
Sign George Springer? Sign Trevor Bauer? Why not both?!
Well, over the weekend, Mr. Cohen gave an indication of where his budget limit might be in his first offseason as a Major League Baseball owner.
âI think at some point we will [surpass the luxury tax], but maybe not this season,â Cohen told the New York Post. âIâm not afraid to go over it, but you want to have flexibility on our payroll. Long-term contracts can limit a teamâs ability going forward. Iâve said we are a major-market team and we should spend like we are a major-market team, but that doesnât mean weâre going to spend like drunken sailors.âÂ
What does this mean?
You have probably seen some numbers on how much money the Mets can spend before reaching the first luxury tax threshold of $210 million. Keep in mind that everyone, including the Mets, is guessing right now. Nobody knows how the arbitration process will play out, so we rely on projections to give us an idea of how much payroll is already dedicated to the players on the current 40-man roster.
Unless arbitration rulings end up widely different than expected, the Mets should have roughly $50 million to spend before they need to worry about paying any tax.
That means they have plenty of flexibility to sign George Springer to a $100+ million contract that would pay him an average annual salary between $20-25 million. Trevor Bauer is as predictable as my five-year-old when it comes to what he will do next, but itâs not unreasonable to estimate he will either sign a massive one-year deal for well over $30 million or seek a multi-year contract with an AAV in the high twenties.
In other words, signing both Springer and Bauer would probably put the Mets into the tax. While we donât know what Cohenâs definition is of âspending like drunken sailorsâ â and honestly, while Iâm familiar with the saying, I donât really get how sailors who are trapped at sea with a six pack of Budweiser and the last shot of Whiskey in their barrel would be in the best position to spend a lot of money, but so the saying goes â we can take the ownerâs words to mean itâs probably unlikely the Mets will sign who could be the two most expensive players on the market, at least not this offseason.
MLB draws a line in the payroll sand at the end of the season, so the Mets will want to maintain some flexibility to add payroll via trades going forward. They could still use some bullpen help. I think they go all in on Springer, sign a middle-market starter, maybe another reliever, and then call it an offseason. Remember, they already got their catcher in James McCann. If they do everything I just outlined, they would have checked the roster need boxes listed by every beat reporter and blog writer entering the offseason (who knows if that means anything or not đ)
Interesting links from other sitesâŚ
đ MUST READ: Steve Cohen taking âfan-centricâ approach to Mets: âI want to win for them,â by Steve Serby, New York Post: âOur ultimate goal is to win the World Series and to consistently be one of the better organizations in baseball. I want to change the narrative about the Mets so our fans can be optimistic about where the team is headed. But I want them to be patient. We have holes to fill on the team and with the organization.â
đ On Marcus Stroman teasing a new 4-seam and split change for next season, by Matt Musico, MetsMerized: âMaking these kinds of adjustments isnât for everyone. Itâs difficult enough to be a good MLB player with their current skills, let alone adding new ones in each year or two. This is the type of stuff that can only be done if said player is comfortable in continually tweaking things along the way and is strong enough mentally to deal with the growing pains that comes with it all.â
đ Darryl Strawberry: In ministry for 17 years now, here's how he views post-baseball life, by Justin Toscano, NorthJersey.com: âA little over 18 years ago, Darryl Strawberryâs now-wife, Tracy, was pulling him out of drug houses. As he, in his own words, âwas shooting dope, smoking crack and just wanted to die,â she continued chasing him around, banging on doors, finding him and promising him there was more to lifeâŚSince that time, Strawberry, now 58 years old, has been in ministry for 17 years, preaching for the last 12. Once thrust into a life of partying and drugs, he says he has transformed himself.â
đ Ex-Met Rico Brognaâs analytic work leads to managing job, by Mike Puma, New York Post: âLast week, the 50-year-old Brogna was named manager of the Athleticsâ Single-A team in Stockton, Calif. His masterâs degree [in cybersecurity at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University] complete, Brogna was hired by the organization as a minor league coach last winter but didnât get beyond two weeks of spring training due to the pandemic and his seasonâs cancelation. Brogna is ready to put his new weaponry to work.â
đ Pete Alonso on Amazinâ But True podcastâŚ
Thanks for reading! More to come next Wednesday!
And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.