How much will Cohen spend?
And remembering Phil Niekro
Good Morning,
🗓 I will publish on Monday and Wednesday this week. And then starting January 4th, this newsletter will publish every weekday (Monday - Friday). Of course, if something Amazin’ happens, a special edition could come your way.
⏰ Let’s quickly catch you up on the key stories since the last newsletter was published on December 23:
NEW HIRE: Mets added former Red Sox executive Zack Scott to the front office under GM Jared Porter. Scott’s official title will be Senior Vice President and Assistant GM. He brings 17 years of experience and an analytics mind to the decision-making process. Scott and Porter began their careers together as interns for the Red Sox in 2004. By agreeing to let Scott make a lateral move, the Mets won’t be allowed to poach any more Red Sox front office members through at least the 2021-22 offseason.
Note: I originally planned on writing in detail about the Scott hire, but with so much news to catch up on since the last newsletter, I will cover him in the next issue.
LUXURY TAX: New owner Steve Cohen indicated in a New York Post interview that he is willing to pass the luxury tax threshold, but maybe not this season (more in a bit).
POSTING DEADLINE: The Mets remain one of five teams in pursuit of Japanese starter Tomoyuki Sugano, whose posting deadline to be signed by a major league club is approaching (January 7).
MORE FOREIGN INTEREST: Mets are one of six teams interested in Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim, per South Korea’s Naver News. His posting deadline is January 2.
🧓 JB’s Take: Whether the Mets end up signing either Sugano or Kim is not as important right now as it is to learn that they appear to be willing to play in the Asian market, an area where they had little scouting presence under the Wilpons. Kim reportedly has several offers in the 5+ year range. MLB Trade Rumors predicted the 25-year-old who hit 133 home runs and stole 134 bases over the past six seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization will net a five-year deal around $40 million.
DON’T YOU KNOW: Speaking of middle infielders, Robinson Cano played his first game for the Estrellas Orientales of the Dominican Winter League and hit a home run in each of his first two plate appearances.
SOUL…
If you spent a part of your Christmas Day watching Soul like I did, and if you happen to root for both the Knicks and Mets, you probably came away with mixed feelings about screenwriter and co-director Kemp Powers.
As a Knicks fan, how are you going to troll us like that? As a Mets fan, hey (!) that’s cool, the Mets were featured like four times in the movie on sweatshirts, barber shop signs, and jerseys. P.S. My daughters liked the movie, so that’s all that counts.
Remembering Phil Niekro
If Phil Niekro’s father hadn’t taught his son how to throw a knuckleball in his backyard, we might not have experienced the Cy Young season of R.A. Dickey with the Mets. Niekro’s influence on the game of baseball can’t be understated, so I wanted to reserve some space to remember the pitching legend who passed away yesterday at the age of 81 after a long battle with cancer.
The Hall-of-Famer won 318 games, struck out more batters than all but ten major league pitchers, and found his way into Mets history a few notable times.
1) His influence on R.A. Dickey:
“In 2008, when R.A. Dickey was a member of the Seattle Mariners and was three years into his own self-taught tutorial on the capricious pitch, he called Mr. Niekro and sought his counsel […] The two rendezvoused at a batting-and-pitching complex near Mr. Niekro's Atlanta home—Mr. Dickey drove down from his home in Tennessee—and their meeting proved an important step in Mr. Dickey's rise into the folk hero he's become for the Mets.” [Wall Street Journal]
2) His place as an opponent: Niekro had a career 25-14 record against the Mets, but in 1969, the Miracle Mets beat him four times, including in the National League’s first playoff series when Tom Seaver bested him despite not having his usual stuff. Seaver would later win the Cy Young Award that year with 23 of 24 first place votes (Niekro received the other first place vote).
2020 has been a monstrous year, and baseball hasn’t escaped its’ reach. Niekro becomes the seventh Hall-of-Famer to pass away this year, joining our beloved Seaver, Al Kaline, Lou Brock, Bob Gibson, Whitey Ford, and Joe Morgan in the Field of Dreams somewhere.
How much will the Mets spend?
Steve Cohen has spent more on a piece of art than the Mets have ever paid for the services of a major league player, at least on one contract, which is why fans are salivating over the possibilities of what he will do in the free agent market.
Sign George Springer? Sign Trevor Bauer? Why not both?!
Well, over the weekend, Mr. Cohen gave an indication of where his budget limit might be in his first offseason as a Major League Baseball owner.
“I think at some point we will [surpass the luxury tax], but maybe not this season,” Cohen told the New York Post. “I’m not afraid to go over it, but you want to have flexibility on our payroll. Long-term contracts can limit a team’s ability going forward. I’ve said we are a major-market team and we should spend like we are a major-market team, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to spend like drunken sailors.”
What does this mean?
You have probably seen some numbers on how much money the Mets can spend before reaching the first luxury tax threshold of $210 million. Keep in mind that everyone, including the Mets, is guessing right now. Nobody knows how the arbitration process will play out, so we rely on projections to give us an idea of how much payroll is already dedicated to the players on the current 40-man roster.
Unless arbitration rulings end up widely different than expected, the Mets should have roughly $50 million to spend before they need to worry about paying any tax.
That means they have plenty of flexibility to sign George Springer to a $100+ million contract that would pay him an average annual salary between $20-25 million. Trevor Bauer is as predictable as my five-year-old when it comes to what he will do next, but it’s not unreasonable to estimate he will either sign a massive one-year deal for well over $30 million or seek a multi-year contract with an AAV in the high twenties.
In other words, signing both Springer and Bauer would probably put the Mets into the tax. While we don’t know what Cohen’s definition is of “spending like drunken sailors” — and honestly, while I’m familiar with the saying, I don’t really get how sailors who are trapped at sea with a six pack of Budweiser and the last shot of Whiskey in their barrel would be in the best position to spend a lot of money, but so the saying goes — we can take the owner’s words to mean it’s probably unlikely the Mets will sign who could be the two most expensive players on the market, at least not this offseason.
MLB draws a line in the payroll sand at the end of the season, so the Mets will want to maintain some flexibility to add payroll via trades going forward. They could still use some bullpen help. I think they go all in on Springer, sign a middle-market starter, maybe another reliever, and then call it an offseason. Remember, they already got their catcher in James McCann. If they do everything I just outlined, they would have checked the roster need boxes listed by every beat reporter and blog writer entering the offseason (who knows if that means anything or not 😉)
Interesting links from other sites…
🔗 MUST READ: Steve Cohen taking ‘fan-centric’ approach to Mets: ‘I want to win for them,’ by Steve Serby, New York Post: “Our ultimate goal is to win the World Series and to consistently be one of the better organizations in baseball. I want to change the narrative about the Mets so our fans can be optimistic about where the team is headed. But I want them to be patient. We have holes to fill on the team and with the organization.”
🔗 On Marcus Stroman teasing a new 4-seam and split change for next season, by Matt Musico, MetsMerized: “Making these kinds of adjustments isn’t for everyone. It’s difficult enough to be a good MLB player with their current skills, let alone adding new ones in each year or two. This is the type of stuff that can only be done if said player is comfortable in continually tweaking things along the way and is strong enough mentally to deal with the growing pains that comes with it all.”
🔗 Darryl Strawberry: In ministry for 17 years now, here's how he views post-baseball life, by Justin Toscano, NorthJersey.com: “A little over 18 years ago, Darryl Strawberry’s now-wife, Tracy, was pulling him out of drug houses. As he, in his own words, “was shooting dope, smoking crack and just wanted to die,” she continued chasing him around, banging on doors, finding him and promising him there was more to life…Since that time, Strawberry, now 58 years old, has been in ministry for 17 years, preaching for the last 12. Once thrust into a life of partying and drugs, he says he has transformed himself.”
🔗 Ex-Met Rico Brogna’s analytic work leads to managing job, by Mike Puma, New York Post: “Last week, the 50-year-old Brogna was named manager of the Athletics’ Single-A team in Stockton, Calif. His master’s degree [in cybersecurity at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University] complete, Brogna was hired by the organization as a minor league coach last winter but didn’t get beyond two weeks of spring training due to the pandemic and his season’s cancelation. Brogna is ready to put his new weaponry to work.”
🎙 Pete Alonso on Amazin’ But True podcast…
Thanks for reading! More to come next Wednesday!
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