Holding the Line

Morning Dose: Wednesday, January 15

☀️ Good Morning:

Matt Olson.

Freddie Freeman.

Bryce Harper.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Jake Burger.

Christian Walker.

Six names that explain why there is still a “fairly significant gap” between Pete Alonso and the Mets in getting a new deal done, even at a proposed three-year term.

Those six names rank higher than Alonso over the past two seasons not in some fancy stat like WAR, or wRC+, or whatever other number I could easily throw at you.

They rank higher than Alonso in the metric that is supposed to the best at capturing his value: slugging percentage.

And that’s why, no matter what the term is, David Stearns is not going to pay an inflated price for a 30-year-old first baseman who does one thing really, really well, but still isn’t even among the very best at doing that.

Add the current market dynamics, and it’s no wonder the Mets are playing chicken with Scott Boras.

Joel Sherman writes, “the Mets appear to be in a staredown, figuring they would not have received this offer from Alonso/Boras if there were a robust market for Alonso. They seem intent on not just giving charity dollars to appease Alonso and the ‘just sign him’ chorus of Met fans. Especially because all indicators are of a hardly alluring market for Alonso.”

Negotiations can change quickly. As Andy Martino noted on Tuesday, the gap between the two sides can be bridged with a simple conversation.

But the fact Alonso’s camp is pushing for the kind of short-term, high-AAV deal the Mets are generally amenable to, and a large gap still remains, tells you something.

It tells you the front office understands something we talk about a lot in this newsletter: opportunity cost.

If six first baseman have slugged better than Alonso over the past two seasons, and 10 (!) produced more WAR last year, what are the Mets giving up by promising him the position for the next three years?

There’s something to say about investing in a homegrown star. There’s intangible value there. But if the Braves were willing to give up on this:

In order to sign a younger version who has now smacked more home runs over the past two seasons than Alonso, there’s no marriage that can’t be broken.

Pete Alonso wants to get paid. He deserves to get paid. But don’t fault the Mets for holding the line on a player who wants an annual salary that will make him the most expensive first baseman in the sport, despite objectively ranking somewhere around sixth or seventh.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!