High Heat
The Mets made their first major league free agent signing under Steve Cohen
Catch me up in 30 seconds…
Front office search: Since we last spoke, another front office candidate has pulled himself out of contention for a role under Sandy Alderson. Former Mets pitcher Chris Young does not want to uproot his family from Dallas to take the general manager position in New York.
Cano money: The Mets will receive a $3.75 million check today from the Seattle Mariners to cover a portion of Robinson Cano’s 2021 salary (the one he forfeited due to his suspension), per Jacob Resnick of Metsmerized.
Bench coach: The Mets parted ways with bench coach Hensley Meulens, leaving an opening next to manager Luis Rojas in the dugout, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports.
Signing: Veteran reliever Jacob Barnes, who was claimed off waivers from the Angels in October, signed a one-year, $750,000 contract with $100,000 in incentives with the Mets, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports.
Free Agency: The Mets are one of several teams showing interest in Chicago White Sox catcher James McCann, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
FanGraphs released their 2021 ZiPS projections for the Mets.
It’s non-tender day
On Monday, I gave an in-depth preview of MLB’s non-tender deadline, which is today. Let’s give you a quick recap:
What is non-tender? MLB teams have until 8:00 PM EST to extend an initial contract to players who are arbitration eligible (less than six years of service time) on their 40-man roster, or else they become free agents.
Why would teams let a young player go for nothing? The non-tender deadline is simply the start of a negotiation between the team and player over a contract number for the upcoming season, with the process usually ending in an arbitration hearing. If teams believe the player isn’t worth the low-end offer they would hand out today, they might decide to save the money and let the player walk. Non-tendering a player also opens up a 40-man roster spot.
Will the Mets non-tender anyone?
Some historical background: Non-tendering a player is usually viewed as a financially frugal decision. Of the roughly 200 arbitration-eligble players, it’s possible close to 70 could become free agents today as teams grapple with the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic. However, even the pre-Cohen Mets rarely non-tendered anyone. In fact, since 2015, only Wilmer Flores has been non-tendered. The Mets are tied with the Marlins for the fewest non-tenders in that time.
Steven Matz is the name fans have been debating over the past several weeks. Considering the Mets only have one left-handed starter on their 40-man roster behind Matz and David Peterson, it seems wise to bring him back. The New York Post reported earlier this week that the team will likely tender him a contract.
Right-handed pitchers: As alluded to above, the Mets have a lot of right-handed pitchers on their 40-man roster, especially after signing Trevor May (who we will discuss in a lot more detail in a minute) and avoiding arbitration by quickly signing Jacob Barnes, who is out of options. With Díaz, May, Miguel Castro, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Brad Brach, and possibly Barnes, the bullpen is already stacked with righties. Right-handers Paul Sewald and Robert Gsellman are two names to keep an eye on.
Could the Mets land somebody else’s non-tender?
Money, money, money: This is where Steve Cohen’s money could make an immediate impact. If an intriguing player is non-tendered, nobody is in better position to scoop them up than the Mets. Below are a list of interesting candidates from positions of need. While it’s unlikely all of these players become free agents, we do know already that Eddie Rosario was waived by the Twins last night.
High Heat
Mets fans have been waiting for their team to spend some money. And the first major league free agent signing under Steve Cohen is a pitcher who has been waiting to make some money.
On Tuesday, New York reportedly reached a two-year, $15 million deal with right-handed Trevor May. The personable reliever — who tweets, Twitches, and spins beats as DJ MAZR in his free time — saw his first-year arbitration number deflated due to Tommy John surgery and was worried about his market value this year due to the pandemic.
May has seen his salary slowly climb from $510,000 in 2015 to what was supposed to be $2.2 million this past season, but the truncated schedule cut that number down to $817,000. Yeah, none of us feel bad about these salary numbers, but just go with it.
The 31-year-old has been anxiously waiting to join what he calls the Dos Commas Club (at least two commas in his salary):
“We’re used to it at this point,” May said via the Star Tribune. “I’m used to the just poor timing. Had Tommy John my first year of arbitration that set my arbitration scale way back, so that affected me for three years. Then, of course, [the pandemic] happens, so ... I’ve just accepted the fact that if it went perfectly, I would have made a lot more money in my life, but again, out of my control.”
So now that everyone is happy — Steve Cohen’s beautiful money is flowing to free agents and May can add several commas to his annual salary — let’s discuss what the Mets are getting in the veteran right-hander.
Trevor May strikes people out. That’s what he does. And he did so even more frequently in empty stadiums, with a K/9 rate that ranked sixth highest among qualified relievers in baseball this past season. Nearly 40 percent of at bats ended in strikeouts when May was on the mound in 2020.
The righty gives the Mets a legitimate late-innings reliever who can pair with Edwin Díaz to form the hardest-throwing, batt-missing duo in baseball.
Of course, there should always be caution in talking about Díaz, who blew half as many games as he saved last year. But for now, I’m going to pretend everything is magically better under Steve Cohen and Díaz’ 1.75 ERA and ridiculous strikeout rate is a sign those hopes can be answered.
May is not a closer — he has only saved 7 games out of the 180+ he has worked in relief. Last season for Minnesota, he was most often used in the 8th inning as a set-up man. Of his 24 appearances, 21 came with the Twinkies ahead or tied in the game, and only 7 came in low-leverage situations.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017, the Washington state native has been a consistent reliever in the American League. In 113 appearances since 2018, he has a 3.19 ERA, aided by impressive strikeout (12.2 K/9) and walk (3.0 BB/9) ratios.
The Mets are probably of the mind that his increased velocity in 2020 — his fastball ticked up from 95.5 MPH to 96.3 MPH on average — along with the chance to reunite him with Jeremy Hefner, who was key to his success in 2019, will lead to continued dominance out of the ‘pen as he pitches into his early thirties.
May is nearly un-hittable when throwing the high cheese and he served it like a dairy farmer last season. He also doesn’t really care if the batter is left-handed or right-handed, he just strikes people out. This is a 97 MPH fastball to Jason Heyward, who doesn’t swing and miss a lot.
Naturally, living on high fastballs can lead to trouble with home runs, something that victimized him greatly last year. His HR/FB rate ballooned to 21.7 percent (versus 12.1 percent in 2019), but part of that could be attributed to a small sample size (he only pitched in 24 games due to the pandemic).
Looking at the home runs he allowed, at least one of them would have been saved by Citi Field dimensions, but the rest would have landed near Shea Bridge (see below).
It was literally hit or miss for May last season. When hitters made contact, they hit the ball hard. His barrel percentage (think getting hit squarely) ranked in the bottom 9th percentile of the league. His “hard hit” percentage was in the bottom 37th percentile.
But making contact wasn’t easy. And the emergence of his slider has allowed him to rely on his four-seamer less, which made the offering more lethal, and perhaps contributed to his increased velocity.
May started to tinker with his slider in 2019, changing the grip, as he explained to Baseball Prospectus early in that season:
“It’s closer to my curveball grip. I, historically, have always full-spiked my curveball. Most guys go here,” May said, with his right middle finger along one seam and the index finger flexed such that his nail dug into the swoop of the seam facing him at the top of the ball. “But with my finger, I do this” — the index finger folded all the way down onto the top of the ball, the top knuckle resting on that top seam — “because Pedro Martinez used to throw it like this. So I’d go really deep; I’d go flush. That slows the ball down so much, but picking something up [with that flexed, nail-in-seam grip] just is not comfortable for me.”
As he found more success two years ago throwing his slider with a near curveball grip, he started to throw it more often in place of his traditional curve. By 2020, it was his second most deployed pitch. It moves a little less away from right-handed hitters than most sliders, but has a stronger drop.
Finding confidence in his secondary pitches (he also throws a change-up to keep left-handed hitters off balance), has pushed his four-seamer into elite status. Of pitchers who faced at least 25 batters last season, May’s whiff percentage on his fastball ranked second highest in all of baseball.
In reading interviews where May talks about his approach, I come away feeling like he has figured out how to pitch. That is a really good sign for a guy who can cock back and throw close to 100 MPH. While he strikes a lot of people out, his experience has taught him how to think through an inning, using his repertoire of pitches to keep opposing hitters off balance.
Before the Mets hired Jeremy Hefner to be their pitching coach, he was a go-to resource for May in Minnesota, helping him have a career year in 2019.
“We trusted each other to know what information was valuable and what wasn’t,” May said about working with Hefner via The Athletic. “He’s just got a good ear for how guys tick and what they respond to.”
Reuniting the cerebral May with Hefner should optimize his results in Queens.
Thanks for reading! Look out for the next newsletter on Wednesday!
And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.
Not old on May - seems like a typcal Alderson scrap heep signing after injuries - and Matz - OMG he has to go !