High Ceiling, High Floor

Morning Dose: Tuesday, March 25

☀️ Good Morning:

We have a special treat for you this morning.

As we prepare for the start of a new season, we want to bring you new perspectives that can provide unique insight into the game.

Today, we are joined by former professional pitcher John Creel. He spent several years in the Mariners’ system before turning his focus towards player development and writing.

He offers a guest essay today about the strengths of the Mets’ organization and why we should be spending more time thinking about Jonah Tong and not overlooking Griffin Canning.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

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By John Creel

I simply cannot emphasize this enough:

There has never been a better time to be a Mets fan.

There are three major components to being a winning Major League Baseball club:

1. Great players;

2. An owner who will make the moves that are needed;

3. And an elite player development staff.

This might sound simple, but there simply are not many teams that have all three. 

The Mets check every box. They signed the biggest free agent in baseball history, out-dueling the most historic franchise in sport. They have prospects to fill their every need, and a player development staff that knows how to find diamonds in the rough. 

The Mariners have an awesome player development staff and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, but their ownership hasn't shown a willingness to spend. The Padres have one of the best lineups in baseball and an owner that was known for making splash moves, but they have the 25th ranked farm system. The Rays have an amazing reputation in player development and acquisition, but being in a smaller market, they are capped in their spending ability. 

The Mets are one of the few teams that really have the ability to make moves in every facet: they can sign top free agents, promote high-level prospects to fill their injury needs, or make an under-the-radar acquisition, relying on their keen scouting and confidence to improve players. 

If you don't have all three components, it’s really hard to win consistently over a stretch of 162 regular season games. You can only have 26 players on the active roster, and you’ve got about 1500 innings of baseball to cover if you want to make the postseason. The season is hard, and it’s certainly a war of attrition. 

This is a war the Mets are prepared for. 

⚾️ High Ceiling

The Mets have plenty of prospects to be excited about. Their #1 prospect Brandon Sproat is on the brink of debuting in the big leagues, flashing fastballs approaching 100 MPH with two distinct movement styles (Sinker and 4-seam), along with four offspeed pitches that all work out to be anywhere from average to well above average. 

However, I think there is someone lurking in Sproat’s shadow who may be an even more exciting prospect. And one people aren’t talking about enough.

👉 JONAH TONG, a 7th-round selection in 2022 from Canada, was electric in his first full professional season. 

Tong is a lanky, high-slot right handed pitcher that displays elite athleticism in his delivery. Watching him throw the ball reminds you of Tim Lincecum, an old school over-the-top delivery that contains a lot of deception. In a world of cookie cutter, Tong is a breath of fresh air in a lot of ways. 

It is really easy to be a fan of Tong. He wields an absolute weapon of a fastball, something he will be able to rely on at any level of baseball. This fastball not only has elite “ride,” but is paired with elite deception and extension, it takes an already very good pitch and makes it even more dominating. Tong has also flashed three offspeed pitches that each grade out at or above major-league average. Most of these offerings are new, as he added his cutter in early 2024, and will have plenty of time to refine the pitch. The changeup is the least inspiring, but when you pair it with a lethal fastball, it tends to get better results than it otherwise would.

Starting the season in Low-A last season, Tong mauled his way through professional lineups, striking out an absurd 17 hitters per 9 innings before being quickly promoted to High-A. Most professional players consider High-A the first challenging level, one where the pretenders are often separated from the real prospects. It would be easy to expect Tong to face his first adversity against more mature and advanced lineups.

However, Tong did not disappoint, he proceeded to dominate hitters and post a 30% strikeout rate. This is impressive on its own, but significantly more impressive for a 20-year-old in his first full season. He did so well that he earned himself a promotion to AA and did more of the same. 

AA is yet another major jump, and one that often takes a long time to get adjusted. Tong not only did more of the same, but actually performed even better in his small sample. He struck out hitters at a nearly 40% rate (37.8%) and maintained the same walk rate he posted in High-A. It is safe to say, in his Age-20 season, Tong showed nothing but pure dominance. 

With room to mature physically, Tong has plenty of growth ahead of him before he finds his ceiling. He will have an easier path to consistency, as the proliferation of his cutter will likely give him an offering to lower his one flaw: a slightly above average walk rate.

This is not something I am worried about for Tong, he showcases so much athleticism that his walk rate will likely tick downwards as he matures physically. 

With a newfound precedent in MLB of calling up electric prospects as late-season bullpen help, there’s no reason why Tong couldn’t help the Mets bullpen down the stretch in September. 

⚾️ High Floor

Not every player is as flashy as a Brandon Sproat or a Jonah Tong. In fact, I would argue that the boring acquisitions can end up being the ones that really move the needle over the long haul. When you have prospects like Sproat, and can sign someone like Juan Soto, it is really easy to overlook moves made closer to the margins.

👉 The signing of a player like GRIFFIN CANNING is the type where you can find hidden value.

Canning was a blue-chip prospect with the Angels, and has shown an ability to take the ball at the major-league level and carry his own weight. While he hasn’t necessarily blossomed into the frontline starter he was expected to be, his potential is far from over.

For reference, 1.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is valued at approximately $8 million. Signing a player like Canning for $4.25M offers the Mets a high (enough) floor as someone who can eat innings and easily produce surplus value. This is where the Mets’ player development staff has the chance to shine. 

Vice President of Pitching Eric Jagers doesn’t sign off on a new pitcher unless he sees a path to improving their game. Signing a player without a plan to make them more valuable than their contract is not a winning formula. In Canning’s case, we are already seeing a plan in motion, resulting in a positive spring with a new pitch mix. 

🗽 NEW APPROACH: Throughout his entire career, Canning averaged about 40% fastball usage. This number alone is not particularly interesting, until you consider it is his worst performing pitch. 

via Baseball Savant

Canning has always had an elite changeup and above average slider, so why would these pitches get used significantly less than his well below average fastball? There could be some reasons: comfortability or command are two common answers. He doesn’t really know how he would fare throwing his fastball less, and for most people, the Majors isn’t exactly a low-stress environment to try out new things. 

This spring, Canning has shown an entirely new strategy.

In his most recent outing, he threw his fastball 25.4% of the time, a huge drop off from his career average. Canning also flashed a brand new cutter at about 10% usage, and allowed his best offerings to carry the load.

The results? He punched nine tickets in 4.2 innings of one-run baseball. Not a bad start.

⚾️ Is 2025 the year?

Truly, I don’t know. What is important is that my excitement about this team goes beyond any one season’s potential. I am a believer in the Mets because of who they are as an organization. 

An organization that is willing to pursue elite talent. An organization that is willing to do the dirty work and find undervalued players. An organization that knows their way around developing young talent, and keeps the pipeline full of potential impact and replacement-level players. 

The Mets are creating an ecosystem for success and consistency at the big league level, and that is something to be excited about. 

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📚 ProFormance Newsletter

If you enjoyed this, John Creel writes about player development in his own newsletter. As a former professional pitcher with the Mariners, player development trends have been part of his life for the last decade. Getting to see it from the outside and see how different organizations run their development systems is what he really enjoys. 

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🔗 The $765 million Juan Soto questions that Yankees, Mets can’t escape, by Joel Sherman, NY Post ($): “They smiled and hugged. Of course, they did. If you are reading this sentence and are a fan of either New York team, you hold a much stronger passion about which side of The Bronx/Queens divide Juan Soto ended up on than anyone in uniform. If you were a Yankees loyalist at Clover Park on Monday about 2 ¹/₂ hours before first pitch, you probably would have seen a traitor in a No. 22 Mets uniform. The Yankees who all but formed a greeting committee near the visitor’s dugout saw a businessman who they enjoyed playing with last year.”

🔗 Mets Q&A with Brandon Nimmo, by Tim Healey, Newsday ($): “We’re not going to try to be the stepbrother to the Yankees, we’re not going to be the second team in New York anymore. We want to be New York’s team. We want to command respect for the Mets name. And I think that total buy-in from them has been the biggest difference I’ve seen.”

🔗 2025 Mets Media Guide. You can download the media guide by navigating to the link provided by Mets News & Links. Not sure what the cover is all about — did someone die?

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