☀️ GOOD MORNING:
It was all good a week ago.
The Mets had won seven in a row, both Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga were healthy. The team was poised to add at the trade deadline. It was time to sprint to the finish line.
Not so fast.
A Mets pitching staff that surrendered more than three runs only once during their seven-game winning streak, have not allowed less than four runs in their last seven games, and at least seven runs in four of those contests.
The offense is slowly starting to click again, plating 22 runs over the past three games, but it hasn’t mattered. That seven-game winning streak is a distant memory.
After a painful 7–6 failed-comeback loss on Monday, the Amazins have dropped six of seven.
☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
📊 NEW: As we head into the stretch run, I thought it was a good time to update the standings and upcoming schedule graphic.
Upcoming Schedule: I added “L” or “R” to show if the opposing starting pitcher is left-handed or right-handed.
NL Playoff Picture gives a snapshot of seeding. Remember, the division winners are guaranteed a Top-3 seed, with the Top-2 division winners receiving a bye. There are three wild-cards, along with the third-best division winner, who play in a best-of-three series in the higher seed’s ballpark.
To read the graphic, the Mets are currently the 5th seed, 1.5 games back of the Phillies in the NL East (and a Top-3 seed), 2.0 games back of the Dodgers for a first-round bye (if they pass the Phillies), and 4 games up on the Reds to maintain a wild-card spot.
Note: the Cubs are technically the second-best team in the NL, which is why you see a negative sign in their BYE GB column. However, since they are 3.0 back of the Brewers in the NL Central, they remain in the fourth slot. If the season ended today, the Mets would play in Chicago to start the postseason.
I also added a Remaining Schedule snapshot, courtesy of Tankathon. The Mets have the sixth toughest schedule remaining in baseball over their final 49 games. You can see which series are the “toughest” and “easiest” the rest of the way. Click on the “SOS” link under the graphic to see the full strength of schedule breakdown.
⏎ TURNING POINT
Sean Manaea’s sixth inning is probably the most sobering turning point, but it could have been forgiven, and it could have been the context to the biggest comeback victory of the season, had third-base coach Mike Sarbaugh sent Tyrone Taylor home on Francisco Lindor’s double in the ninth inning.
CONTEXT:
Score: 5–5
Inning: Bottom 9
Outs: 1
THE PLAY: Inserted as a pinch-runner, starting his path at first base, Taylor was speeding around the bases on a Lindor double down the right-field line that would have forced two strong throws and a proper tag to nail him at the plate.
Sarbaugh did his homework: Nolan Jones ranks in the 99th percentile for arm strength and 98th percentile for arm value by Statcast. Only four fielders (ironically, one being Tyrone Taylor) have been more successful throwing out runners attempting to advance an extra base this season. You have to be sure to run on Jones.
In this situation, it seemed like the right time to test him. Jones had to chase the ball to the edge of the foul line, putting himself at an awkward angle to make a strong throw. We know the Mets don’t hit with runners in scoring position. Taylor was put into the game to make this precise play. And after adding Cedric Mullins at the deadline, this is the value Taylor brings you off the bench. It was the time to send him.
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