☀️ GOOD MORNING:
The Mets are 1/2 game behind the Cubs for the best record in the National League. They are on pace to win 98 games. FanGraphs gives them an 89.5% chance of making the playoffs on June 19.
If we had closed our eyes and skipped to this point of the schedule from spring training, the story we would find wouldn’t be about a five-game losing streak, it would be how the 2025 Mets have somehow played like one of the best teams in baseball despite an inconsistent offense and fragile pitching staff.
You don’t win 93 games playing perfectly consistent at a .574 winning percentage the entire season. You get there on long winning streaks, as the Mets have had, a few losing streaks, as they are stuck in now, and everywhere in between until it adds up to that number.
The Amazins have sported the best ERA in baseball on mostly guts and guile, relying on ground balls, double plays and smart pitching. We saw on Wednesday how things look facing a dominant ace, like the kind you see in the playoffs.
Everyone had their fingers crossed Frankie Montas might figure things out in his last rehab outing, and it started out pretty well, before falling apart again. The pressure is on Sean Manaea to complete his final rehab starts and save the rotation in a few weeks.
The Mets aren’t just losing games right now, they are losing the vibes they have carried since Franciso Lindor’s heroic home run in Atlanta last September. They know they are a good team, but the pitching staff has sprung a major leak. We will talk today about what David Stearns must consider heading into the trade deadline.
You don’t come to this newsletter for hot takes. Just as I told everyone this team wasn’t quite as good as they had been playing, they aren’t as bad as we’ve seen over the past week. This is a tough stretch, but they can survive it and re-position themselves for the second half of the season.
☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
🔎 IN SEARCH OF PITCHING
We are six weeks away from the trade deadline. That gives David Stearns plenty of time to gain clarity on his rotation and whether a trade will be necessary to solidify a group that has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations, but has plenty of caution signs heading into the second half of the season.
🔹 THE STAKES: The introduction of a first-round bye has added significance to the regular season for a team like the Mets. Instead of coasting through the final three months, resting on their laurels and counting on their roster to be good enough to get across the finish line, they have incentive to secure a top seed.
This makes Stearns’ approach to the deadline a bit tricker: even if he believes in a healthy trio of Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga and David Peterson leading the rotation in October, does he need reinforcements to keep them from pitching an extra series? Do they have enough arms to win the NL East? Does that mean a depth starter is the right add?
Or does Stearns need to consider the very real possibility that all of Manaea, Senga and Peterson are not healthy and effective at the same time come October? Can you win a World Series with that group? Can Clay Holmes be counted on to pitch deep into the postseason in his first season being stretched out? Do the Mets need another top-line starter?
Internal options will have to get the Mets through the next month (Sean Manaea can’t get here soon enough), but after that, they might need help.
🔹 THE OPTIONS: The market could dictate the approach the front office takes. It’s easy to say they should add [insert top starter], but the price could make it prohibitive. To start the process of orienting us around the possibilities, let’s consider a few names that might be dangled at the deadline.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Mets Fix to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.