The Great Conjunction
An historical look at the Mets' payroll
Good Morning,
đ I will publish on Monday and Wednesday for each of the next two weeks around the holidays. And then starting January 4th, this newsletter will publish every weekday (Monday - Friday).
â° Catch me up in 60(ish) secondsâŚ
TWO-TEAM RACE: Executives believe it is a two-team race between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets for free agent outfielder George Springer, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.
PLAYER NAMED LATER: The Mets sent right-hander Ryder Ryan to the Texas Rangers as the player to be named later from the Todd Frazier trade. If you remember, Ryan was the prospect acquired from the Indians in the Jay Bruce trade. The 25-year-old hasnât pitched above Double-A and is projected to be a middle reliever.
OPEN TRADE: As news broke about Ryan going to the Rangers, Tim Healey reminds us the Mets still owe the Rangers a player for Robinson Chirinos, who was also acquired this past trade deadline.
SIGNING: Mets signed left-hander Cam Opp to a minor league deal, per Rob Piersall of MetsMerized. The London native pitched for Army West Point: âThe Metsâ newest prospect has even shown up in big momentsâŚcapturing a save against rival Navy in 2018 and a win in 2019 against the Midshipmen to help clinch back-to-back Patriot League titles for the Black Knights.â
REALMUTO: Some executives and agents believe the Mets âblew itâ by not signing JT Realmuto and vice versa, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
FORMER METS: There were a few former Mets finding new homes since Friday:
Right-hander Walker Lockett, who was claimed by the Seattle Mariners in September, before being claimed by the Toronto Blue Jays a few weeks ago, is reportedly close to signing a contract with the Doosan Bears of the Korea Baseball Organization.
Former NLCS MVP Michael Wacha signed a one-year, $3 million with the Tampa Bay Rays. Of course, whenever the Rays make a move, people wonder if everyone else is missing something. While Wacha had ugly numbers in 2020 for the Mets (6.62 ERA), his fastball velocity was up. The way the Rays use pitchers, he could work for them as a short starter.
đON THIS DATE INÂ 2009: Mets signed R.A. Dickey to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training. Nobody could have imagined he would win a Cy Young Award three years later.
At the time of the signing, the New York Times wrote: âOn a day when the Yankees acquired the Atlanta Bravesâ ace, Javier Vazquez, to be their No. 4 starter, the Mets neared a deal with a converted knuckleballer who is missing a ligament in his right elbow.â
The Great Conjunction
For the first time in 800 years, something really cool is going to happen in outer space tonight. Jupiter and Saturn will appear side-by-side for nearly an hour after sunset. While the two planets pass each other about once every 20 years, they rarely pass each other as close as they will tonight, as explained by Vox:
âA passage as close as the one expected Monday has happened only a handful of times in the last two millennia. And two of those occurrences, one in 769 and one in 1623, happened too close to the sun to be seen with the unaided eye. The last time a person could clearly see this event was on March 4, 1226.â
As we recognize this celestial event, an equally unique moment could be approaching on planet Earth: a great conjunction of the New York Metsâ and New York Yankeesâ payrolls.
From Buster Olney of ESPN on Sunday morning:
âSteve Cohen is the ghost of Christmas future for some Yankees fans who fear that the Mets' new owner will begin hoarding the type of pricey players who have long been the exclusive domain of the Steinbrenner family.â
Yes, we are living in a new universe where the Mets could spend as much as the Yankees. And unlike the great conjunction between Jupiter and Saturn, the Mets are expected to remain in orbit of the Yankeesâ spending for years to come.
The Mets have had a complicated history as a âbig marketâ team playing in the shadow of the Yankees. From the very first offseason when free agency began in 1976, they took a frugal approach. The New York Times summed it up that November:
âAnd what have the New York Mets been doing while other teams have been signing free agents: sitting smugly on their bankrollâŚFor the Mets, the âbaseball revolutionâ was especially painful because they had lost one million paid admissions since their peak of 2.7 million in 1970 and they suddenly were being outspent and outdrawn by the Yankees. But in a series of interviews questioning their behavior in the open market, their chief executives denied that they were playing Ebenezer Scrooge at grabbag time and made [a series of excuses].â
It wasnât until 1983 when the Mets would finally match the Yankees in payroll, but ironically, that would last for only one season. 1984 turned into a pivotal year for the Mets, not because they had figured out the power of money, but the opposite: they realized the potential of youth, slashing their payroll nearly in half while gaining 22 wins in the standings.
Led by the rookie arms of Doc Gooden, Ron Darling, and Sid Fernandez, they were paving the foundation for what would become a dominant team in the mid-1980s. In that same year, 1984, the division rival Cubs took a different approach, nearly doubling their payroll to help them win 25 more games than the season before. But the gains on their investment would prove to be short-lived.
Meanwhile, the Yankees dropped below 2 million in attendance and while their payroll remained high and their record competitive, the Mets were clearly the team of New York throughout the rest of the eighties.
*Graphic Note: 1976 payroll information was calculated from the salaries provided by the Baseball-Almanac website; 1977-1987 payroll is from marginal payroll calculations from Baseball Prospectus; 1988-1999 payroll is from the Baseball Cube website; and 2000-2020 is the opening day payroll from Cotâs Baseball Contracts.
When the Mets signed Bobby Bonilla to make him the richest player in baseball prior to the 1992 season, the team from Queens became the rich kids on the block: they suddenly had the highest payroll in all of baseball, they still held the honor of winning the most recent championship among their subway counterparts, and the Yankees were in the midst of one of their worst stretches in franchise history.
Every Mets fan reading this newsletter knows what happened next. The â92 Mets became The Worst Team Money Could Buy. And the financial dynamics between New Yorkâs two baseball teams quickly changed after that. The Amazins have never passed the Yankees in spending since that season, and the success of the two clubs reflects that point.
Which brings us back to 2020 with Steve Cohen now in charge of his favorite baseball team while sitting on a wallet thicker than George Costanzaâs and full of actual money.
The Mets havenât splurged yet on the free agent market, choosing to sign catcher James McCann instead of All-Star JT Realmuto. But donât discount the McCann signing either. Only 21 players have signed an offseason contract of four-plus years since 2018. So far, the Mets are the only team to hand out a four-year deal this winter, with the added year proving the difference against what the Angels were offering.
And as of right now, McCann represents over 20 percent of spending across baseball this offseason.
By the time this newsletter kicks into gear after the holidays on a five-day schedule, I expect to be writing about a busy free agent period as someone like George Springer signs on the dotted line with the Mets. While this is exciting to think about, money doesnât guarantee happiness (you can thank me later for this advice you surely have never heard).
Rewind back to 1984. Then fast forward to 1992. Look at the recent success of the Los Angeles Dodgers under their new ownership. Yes, they signed Mookie Betts. But the rest of that roster is pretty much built from the ground up, using resources such as scouting and development to build a perennial contender.
Spending money is fun, especially around the holidays. But as we wait for the great payroll conjunction of the Yankees and Mets, donât forget about the kids.
Interesting links from other sitesâŚ
đ Why Realmuto to Mets didnât happen, by Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic: âFree agency ebbs and flows, and sometimes a team and player operate on different timelines, preventing them from lining up. That seems to be what happened with the Mets and Realmuto. The Mets wanted to move more quickly than Realmuto, and when it became apparent an agreement could not be reached, they struck a four-year, $40.6 million deal with McCann instead.â
đ How James McCannâs incredible rags-to-riches tale led to Mets, by Ken Davidoff, NY Post: âTo get back in his standard shape for his first go-round with the White Sox, McCann didnât need to seek out a new personal trainer, Little said. A devout Christian who once said he doesnât drink alcohol because âitâs poison to an athleteâs body,â McCann simply resumed his standard offseason regimen, which included working out with his new Mets teammates Steven Matz and Brad Brach as part of a Nashville circle of ballplayers.â
đ How MLB's unofficial salary cap is keeping big-budget ballclubs from spending, by Buster Olney, ESPN (Insider)
đ PODCAST: Former Mets pitcher John Maine joined Mets PR guru Jay Horwitz:
Thanks for reading! More to come on Wednesday!
And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.
While it may be slow-go in free agency - they are still operating like they always do. Basically doing nothing to improve the team