☀️ Good Morning:
Faced with deciding whether Jiman Choi or DJ Stewart should share DH duties with Mark Vientos, the Mets decided the price on J.D. Martinez had reached a point they couldn’t resist.
With Citi Field still not sold out for Opening Day in six days, the Mets have given both their lineup and the fanbase a shot in the arm.
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🔌 Power Up
The deal: The Amazins have signed J.D. Martinez to a one-year, $12 million deal that will pay him $4.5 million in 2024 and defer the rest in $1.5 million installments from 2034-2038, per multiple reports. Since the Dodgers didn’t extend him a qualifying offer of $20.325 million, the Mets are not on the hook for any draft pick compensation or international bonus pool penalty.
Mets fans have been pleading for a legitimate DH since the position was added to the National League for good in 2022. The longing only felt more intense this offseason as several candidates remained on the market while the front office signaled a commitment to internal options. The waiting is over.
The get: If you’re reading this newsletter, you know what manager Carlos Mendoza gains by slotting Martinez into his batting order.
Lineup depth: The 36-year-old right-hander provides protection to Pete Alonso and makes the entire lineup look longer. Reunited with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc last season in LA, Martinez found his power stroke at the cost of added strikeouts. It added up to an All-Star campaign that saw him smack 33 homers and drive in 103 runs while batting 35% above league average. And he only got better as the season progressed.
Injury concern? After playing in nearly every game between 2018 and 2022, Martinez ran into some injury troubles last year, limiting him to 113 games. Lower back tightness sidelined him for 16 days in early May, while a groin injury kept him out of the lineup for a few weeks in late August/early September. He’s 36 years old, so there could be some bumps along the way, but he is generally a healthy player.
Playoff odds: FanGraphs puts the Mets’ playoff odds at 30.5% this morning, a jump from 27.9% a few days ago. Any boost from adding Martinez must be weighed against a recent jump in odds to the wild-card contending Giants who made their own late-offseason splash in recent days.
Payroll implications:
NPV: The deferrals bring the net present value of Martinez’s contract down to $8.97 million, allowing Steve Cohen to save $3.34 million in taxes while he is being charged at the highest possible rate. In total, while paying 110% tax on every additional dollar spent this season, Martinez will cost the Mets over $18 million this season.
Payroll: Adding Martinez brings the Mets’ 2024 luxury-tax payroll to around $330 million, while accounting for nearly $65 million in dead money for traded and outrighted players. The one-year deal allows them to maintain payroll flexibility in 2025, and gives them a potential trade chip at this year’s deadline if they are somehow in a position to sell again.
🍎 Roster Implications
How does the J.D. Martinez addition impact the rest of the roster?
40-man: This part is easy. The Mets have several players on the 40-man roster whom they will need to trade or expose to Outright Waivers in the coming days since they are out of minor-league options. Martinez will take one of their spots.
What happens to Vientos? David Stearns spoke all season long about giving his young players runway in the major leagues. It appeared as if that meant both Brett Baty and Mark Vientos would receive regular playing time between third base and DH.
Just one month ago, The Athletic summarized their thinking as follows:
In the event both Baty and Vientos impress enough to be on the Opening Day roster, those with knowledge of the club’s plans offered one way things could break down: Baty, a left-handed batter, would start every day at third base against right-handed pitching while Vientos, a right-handed batter, would start at third base against lefties while also seeing time at designated hitter against right-handed pitchers and giving Pete Alonso an occasional day off in the field at first base.
Strict platoon? Theoretically, the Mets could stick to this plan and play Baty and Vientos in a strict platoon at third base. Vientos hit .400 (20-for-50) against left-handed pitchers last year in Syracuse, while Baty has traditionally struggled against them. But without the DH position available, it would mean roughly 40% less plate appearances for Vientos on the short side of that platoon (since there are less southpaws than right-handed starters).
Baty at third: Independent of Martinez, the course of spring seemingly already had changed the Mets’ thinking in terms of their comfort level with Vientos playing defense at third. He only played there six times over the past month. They are prepared to break north with Baty as their regular third baseman, giving him recent opportunities against left-handed pitching and starting him in the majority of their Grapefruit games, in which he has homered in two straight, including yesterday:
That all seems to add up to Vientos finding his way in Syracuse to start the season. After last night’s signing, The Athletic reported:
While the Mets haven’t made concrete decisions regarding their roster, they at least in theory are comfortable with at least one of either Vientos or Baty starting the season in the minor leagues.
Bench roles: Vientos could become a bench piece in place of Stewart or Choi, offering a soft platoon at third base and a right-handed bat that could gain opportunities pinch hitting late in games (the Mets also have Joey Wendle as an infield option).
Remember: Stearns faces a Friday deadline to decide the fate of Jiman Choi, who can opt out of his minor-league deal as an XX(B) free agent (Luke Voit also has a negotiated opt-out, but is no longer a near-term factor). We discussed the merits of rostering Choi over the optionable Stewart earlier this week. Neither player offers as much value with Martinez on the roster, who figures to play nearly everyday if he is healthy. But they are at least left-handed couterparts to Martinez, unlike Vientos.
Longer view: We obsess over Opening Day, but as Stearns has recently reminded fans, it’s a 162-game schedule, opportunities will come. I could see the Opening Day roster decision boiling down tot his:
Baty plays third base and receives a true opportunity to put 2023 behind him.
Zack Short, who has been hitting the cover off the ball this spring could suddenly find himself in the conversation for a roster spot. He offers a right-handed bat who can play second if McNeil isn’t fully healthy and could even spot Baty at third. The Mets claimed Short off waivers from the Tigers in November and would need to expose him back to waivers if he doesn’t make the Active Roster.
If not Short, they could keep Choi in the organization by placing him on the Opening Day roster as a left-handed complement to Martinez and occasionally Pete Alonso.
Stewart, who can be optioned, would be the odd man out for either Short or Choi.
Vientos starts the season in Syracuse, awaiting his chance to be called up if Baty falters or an injury occurs.
Big question: I think the big question is whether the development of Vientos is really improved by sending him back down, or if he has already had enough Triple-A reps (remember, he has a lot more than Baty) and would actually benefit more by being part of the major league group. Even in a reduced role, he can learn from professional hitters and give the team a legitimate right-handed offering to Baty. It doesn’t seem the way the Mets will go, but that’s the question ahead of them over the next few days.
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⏰ SOON: Kodai Senga is expected to begin throwing within one week after tests revealed the inflammation in his right shoulder has cleared. Manager Carlos Mendoza called the MRI results “very, very encouraging.”
🌴 GRAPEFRUIT GAME: The Mets used a grand slam by Zack Short to help them defeat the Tigers 10–5 on Thursday. Dom Hamel got the start and was hit hard, serving up four (!) long balls in just three innings of work.
🚧 OBSTRUCTION: Francisco Lindor was called for obstruction on a throw to second base as umpires are closely monitoring the rule this spring.
“It’s going to drive a lot of people nuts,” Mendoza said after the game. “It’s a tough one. He sets up in front of the base, Álvarez puts it in front of the bag, he puts his glove down and his foot in front of the base and he is called for the obstruction.”
🇺🇸 USA USA! Opening Day starter José Quintana became an American citizen on Thursday.
🍔 GOOD EATS: The Mets showcased several upgrades at Citi Field to reporters on Thursday, highlighting another awesome menu that includes a variety of tasty items you can check out in this thread. You can also see where the food will be located in the stadium here.
🔗 The J.D. Martinez-Mets fit looked obvious. Why it took so long and what was at stake, by Will Sammon, The Athletic ($): “They stayed true to this process. They remained patient. They never bent. They added a bunch of players they thought would help their playoff odds, but only on deals that fit their plan. On Thursday night, the Mets finally got there with Martinez.”
🔗 Signing J.D. Martinez was a move Mets had to make to be taken seriously in 2024, by John Harper, SNY: “Consider that for his career, Martinez with RISP has hit .298 with a .375 on-base percentage, a .550 slugging percentage, and a .925 OPS. Even more impressive, with two outs and RISP, he has a similar career slash line: .292/.382/.554/.935. Then there are his spectacular 2023 RISP numbers: .325/.375/.650/1.025. And again, even better with two outs: .367/.433/.783/1.216.”
🔗 Mets owner Steve Cohen looked for value and found it in J.D. Martinez, by David Lennon, Newsday ($): “Cohen had been steadfast on two things when it came to his Mets for the upcoming season. The first was getting a grip on his bloated expenses, turning to newly hired president of baseball operations David Stearns to assemble a competitive roster without substantially adding to the sport’s No. 1 payroll. The second was convincing people that he wasn’t punting on the 2024 season, an accusation that rankled him.”
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Can someone explain the new obstruction rule (or send a link to an explanation)? I must have missed that one in the offseason. Is it as simple as no base can be blocked? That play in the video being called safe is going to make people insane initially.
So much more excited this morning than I was yesterday morning. Great news.
If Baty and Vientos have the chops, the at bats will come. If they don’t, they won’t.
I’d also add, if we don’t need Vientos, and he is so good, there d so should be a strong market for him, as prospects are valued so highly.