The days of Dellin Betances throwing like this are probably over.
While his fastball velocity showed some promise in his first spring outing (sitting around 92 MPH), until the radar gun actually shows 99 again, he he will need to learn how to pitch at a lower speed.
Which is fine… and exactly what he spent this offseason trying to do, working with a biomechanics coach, as explained in this recent NY Post article:
“Mechanically, Rockland Peak Performance (RPP) pitching coach Mike Lembo worked on Betances’ delivery and used Rapsodo to bring his spin efficiency up — from mid-80s last season to mid-90s now, Signore said. They also brought his vertical break back up after it had fallen off last season, with Betances wanting more carry and less cut on his fastball.”
What does this mean? Besides velocity, the biggest post-injury change to Betances’ fastball has been its’ vertical movement, or lack thereof.
Since 2017, when he was striking out nearly 40% of the batters he faced, his vertical drop has nearly doubled, meaning his fastball no longer appears to “rise” to opposing hitters. This is why he was working over the winter to improve his spin efficiency, which was only 70% last season. By maximizing the backspin on his fastball, he can hopefully reduce the amount of downward vertical movement.
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Because without velocity or rise, swinging strikes against his fastball have virtually disappeared: a 32% whiff rate in 2018 plummeting to 13 percent last year. And that is mainly due to the lack of swings and misses against high fastballs. As you can see in the graphic below, he started pumping his four-seamer low in the zone last season, after losing confidence in his ability to miss bats.
This is all important context in evaluating Betances’ four-run performance on Thursday. And there are a few interesting takeaways.
The good news: Hernan Perez swung through a high fastball. This is noteworthy, as I alluded to before, because Betances only got three whiffs on high fastballs all of last season, which used to be a strength for him. He also seemed to make a concerted effort to locate the pitch higher in the zone. Unfortunately, we don’t have the detailed spin data to tell us whether his efficiency improved, but the intent on location appeared to be there.
The bad news: The Nationals turned two high fastballs into a double and a home run. This is something that rarely happened when Betances was Betances. In fact, he allowed only five extra base hits (2 home runs) on high fastballs during his entire final two seasons with the Yankees.
Add to that: Betances also struggled with his knuckle curve on Thursday, throwing just two strikes on nine tries. When you have a fastball that no longer zips or rises and a breaking ball that lacks command, it’s tough to survive in the major leagues.
So while it’s only one Spring Training outing, and manager Luis Rojas indicated that Betances’ mechanics were where they wanted them to be (his release point appeared to be a bit higher which could help him get behind the ball more in his all-out effort to exchange run for rise), it’s fair for Mets fans to be concerned that the right-hander is still someone who will be relied on to get key outs, before they can call to the back of the bullpen.
A worry that will persist until his mechanical changes prove he can live up in the zone with his fastball again.