Extending Michael Conforto
Lots of press conferences and Mets news
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
INTRODUCTIONS: The Mets formally introduced free agent signing James McCann with a press conference on Thursday (📺 watch). He noted how new ownership played a role in his decision to sign in New York (He also got four years and the Angels were only offering three, but good to hear nonetheless) (and more in a bit).
BATTERY MATES: Steven Matz told the NY Post that McCann caught him twice per week during the quarantine since they both make their offseason homes in Nashville. McCann thinks he can help Matz reach his potential.
THOR RETURN: Sandy Alderson expects Noah Syndergaard to return to the Mets rotation in June after having Tommy John surgery last March [via WFAN].
NOLAN ARENADO: Appearing on MLB Network on Wednesday, MLB insider Jon Morosi said the Rockies would like to engage the Mets in a Nolan Arenado trade.
🧓 JB’s quick take: This is a new one for me. A team “wants to engage” another team in a trade for one of their players. Morosi later wrote that the two clubs have been in contact, but it does not appear they have engaged in serious trade talks, before writing why the Mets would make sense for Arenado. Basically, every expensive thing on the market is going to be tied to the Mets. Welcome to the new normal. Isn’t it fun?
SANDY HEDGES: Meanwhile, Sandy Alderson continued his theme in media appearances this week that the Mets prefer not to trade prospects to improve the roster, but he did seem to place more emphasis on the possibility of making a trade for the right player than he has in earlier comments.
“We don’t want to give up prospects, and we’re gonna be very careful about doing that,’’ Alderson said via the NY Post. “On the other hand, there might be something out there that causes us to say, ‘OK, with respect to this particular deal, this makes sense to us, and while we don’t want to give up prospects, maybe there’s a way we can do this.’”
CLOSING TIME: Edwin Díaz is seeking permission from the Mets to pitch in Puerto Rico this winter, per MLB.com. While manager Luis Rojas left the door open as to the role Díaz will play out of the bullpen next season, the 26-year-old right-hander says his goal is to be the team’s closer.
🍉 + 🥕: Sandy Alderson on a possible contract extension for Michael Conforto: “I’m sure we’ll have those conversations [this offseason]. I hope they don’t just involved fruit and vegetable metaphors. I expect that we’ll have some serious conversations,” via SNY (more in a bit).
ESPN: Assuming the season starts on time, the Mets will be featured on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball against the Phillies (May 2), Braves (May 30), and Yankees (July 4 + September 12). ESPN will also carry the season opener vs Washington on April 1.
📚ON THIS DATE IN 2018: SPEAKING OF CATCHERS. New York Times: “The Mets signed Wilson Ramos, but before Ramos put on his new Mets jersey on Tuesday at Citi Field, his employers explored all of their options. They talked to the Miami Marlins about the All-Star catcher J. T. Realmuto but could not stomach the asking price in a trade — particularly after dipping into the farm system earlier in the month to trade for closer Edwin Diaz and second baseman Robinson Cano…” [🧓 Yeah, let’s move on from the Brodie memories.]
Hello James McCann
You don’t always learn a lot from introductory press conferences, but the quote above from James McCann is interesting. We have spent a lot of ink (or I guess it’s bits since we are digital) talking about the veteran catcher and his improved defensive play in this newsletter. We have even highlighted his unique relationship with his former teammate and All-Star starter Lucas Giolito.
While it’s true we can’t possibly quantity the human relationship between battery-mates — a bond that likely forms through conversations on cross-country flights, over eggs and bacon at the team hotel, or maybe during long walks on the beach on off days, I don’t know — we do have quite a few statistics to tell us how well a pitcher performs when working with a particular catcher. The most straight forward being ERA.
White Sox pitchers allowed fewer earned runs with James McCann behind the plate than when Welington Castillo or Yasmani Grandal flashed the signs in 2019 and 2020, respectively. This isn’t a unique situation. As you can see, Tomas Nido saw fewer runs cross the plate while holding his catching mask and waiting for the next batter than Wilson Ramos did in 2019.
If the Mets new free agent signing plays above average defense and the pitchers love him, great. But that’s not why the Mets paid him over $40 million to come to Queens. If we trust large sample sizes to tell us a better story about performance, we can look at the 2019 numbers to remind us that Nido ranked in the top 20th percentile of qualified catchers by Baseball Prospectus’ catcher defensive adjustment. McCann ranked in the BOTTOM 5th percent (or 100th out of 106 backstops). He jumped to 21st out of 81 qualified receivers in 2020 (Nido ranked 25th).
In other words, the Mets already had a catcher who could play defense and handle a pitching staff. Those aren’t very difficult things to find. Or at least they aren’t usually expensive to acquire. Sandy Alderson signed James McCann to a four-year deal because he can hit. And he needs to continue to hit at Citi Field to make the signing a success.
Extending Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto has some good timing: 1) He is coming off a shortened 2020 campaign that earned him an All-MLB Second Team honor after slashing .322/.412/.515 with 9 home runs and 31 RBIs in 54 games; 2) He is a contract extension candidate; both just as the wealthiest owner in sports takes over the Mets.
The former 10th overall pick has consistently hit above league average while playing sound defense in the outfield, even though the Statcast numbers didn’t love his right field play last year, and if he suddenly hits for average like he did in 2020’s empty stadiums, watch out. This guy is pretty good. In fact, he already ranks 15th in Mets history in career wins above replacement (WAR) among everyday players.
Depending on which arbitration projection you trust (or maybe you have your own), he is set to make $11-14 million in 2021, which will be his final season before he becomes a free agent. In talking to reporters this week, Sandy Alderson indicated he hopes to have “serious conversations” about a contract extension.
There are two ways to look at an extension for a player like Conforto:
As a fan: He is a really, really good player. If you root for the Mets, you don’t always get nice things, so you hope the team keeps this one.
As a general manager: Is it worth buying out an arbitration season in order to lock in a player long-term on perhaps a more reasonable average annual salary than if re-signed as a free agent?
From the first perspective, the decision appears easy: just extend the popular Met and get it over with. And the second perspective isn’t that much more complicated.
But are we letting our pre-Cohen thinking creep into the Conforto extension decision? In other words, now that the Mets can seemingly go after any player they want, is Michael Conforto the best option over the next 6 or 7 years, or whatever an extension would turn into?
HELL YES: Over the past three seasons, the only outfielders to produce as much WAR who are Conforto’s age or younger are Cody Bellinger (MVP winner), Ronald Acuna Jr. (2x Silver Slugger winner), Juan Soto (Batting Title champion), and Ketel Marte. That’s an elite group. If you extend that search to the previous four seasons, Conforto’s WAR ranks 9th among all MLB outfielders and nobody above him is younger.
So he has performed amongst the game’s very best, but he is still young enough to have prime years left in his career.
ZiPS projects the 27-year-old to produce 6.5 WAR over the next two seasons, which is right on par with what he has been producing over his previous two regular-length campaigns. If the cost to acquire an additional win is $8 million, theoretically, if Conforto can produce roughly 3 WAR per season, his annual salary would be worth around $24 million (remember, his arbitration projection is around $12 million for 2021).
Like selling your house, setting the price is all about market comps. The problem with Conforto’s case is he represents the new-ish house on the block that has a ton of upgrades and there aren’t many similar-built houses in his neighborhood to give a fair price comparison.
Anthony DiComo recently tried to put together a list of comps, taking into account age (although it is hard to find similar-aged players on the open market), position, and pedigree. He included names such as Charlie Blackmon (6-years, $108 million) and J.D. Martinez (5-years, $110 million). The average annual value range was between $16-22 million.
One player who wasn’t on DiComo’s list and who makes for a good comp in terms of age and pedigree is Trevor Story. A quick-rising star in baseball, he signed a two-year extension last January for $27.5 million. But that deal was simply buying out the final two years of his arbitration eligibility. It presents a better example of Conforto’s value in 2021 than into his free agency years.
Maybe the best way to think about it is with George Springer: how much do you hope the Mets pay to make sure they sign him? A lot. And he’s 31-years-old already.
While we can go on forever in searching for comps, with Steve Cohen handing out the paychecks, the money matters less than it used to for the Mets. Michael Conforto is an awesome baseball player, so they should try to keep him. Sometimes it’s that simple.
It’s crazy to put these next two points together in the same sentence, but as fans have been locked out of stadiums due to the pandemic, MLB is headed toward a situation after the 2021 season that could lock fans out due to a collective bargaining fight. There is a lot of uncertainty in the air, for both teams and players, which could be the impetus for a wealthy owner and a rising star to work out the financial framework of a long-term deal this offseason.
Interesting links from other sites…
🔗 MUST READ: Steve Cohen’s rise from Great Neck to Wall Street to Mets Owner, by Tim Healey, Newsday: “An estimated $14 billion fortune has not been enough to drive Cohen from his roots. He not only attended his 40th high school reunion in 2014 — even volunteering his mansion before thinking better of it — but he also was one of the last to leave. To celebrate a round-number birthday or anniversary, he has been known to pay for a dozen or so couples to go on a cruise or trip with him and his wife.”
🔗 Mets Offseason Outlook, via MLB Trade Rumors: “Having already spent on May, McCann and Stroman, Cohen has so far lived up to his promise to invest in the roster. It’s anyone’s guess what the Mets will do next, but thanks to their new owner, they’re one of the truly intriguing teams to watch during what has been a slow winter in Major League Baseball.”
🔗 Thinking about Nolan Arenado? How have some of the best Rockies performed after leaving Coors, by Brian Joura, Mets360: “Regardless of if they started their career with the Rockies or not, all seven of these players had a major OPS edge in Coors Field. That had no impact on what they were able to do when they weren’t playing in Colorado. There’s a Coors Field Hangover effect in place, where it’s hard on hitters to adjust in-season to playing on the road. But that effect does not follow the players to other parks, with some actually performing better in road parks.
Thanks for reading! More to come on Monday!
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Lets hope Diaz never makes his way back to NY !