Exorcising Demons
Morning Dose: Tuesday, September 24
☀️ Good Morning:
Being a fan of a sports team requires you to sign a contract of faith: that is, despite an unwavering commitment of time, money and emotion to [insert team], you are owed nothing in return, its success will be decided independently.
That’s what makes fandom so frustrating. You have no control over the outcome. There is no other hobby quite like it. If you ditched the Mets to spend three hours on a treadmill everyday, you might be in a similar position of running in place, but at least you would be shedding a few pounds in the process.
No amount of fan devotion will help the Mets beat the Braves this week; and depending on how you cope with stress, it’s possible you will gain weight over the next few days, nervously snacking on chips or popcorn during the games.
Maybe that is what attracts us to this strange act of fandom. From the beginning of time, humans have searched for meaning in things outside of ourselves, often finding answers in religion.
Baseball fandom is more a ritual than a religion, practiced nearly everyday. It creates a community among like-minded fans. You can tell us apart by the colors and symbols we wear on our clothes. Prayers expressed in superstitious acts, turning the TV’s volume to a certain number and never changing it, refusing to acknowledge certain pitcher feats, turning a hat inside out.
We credit ourselves when these silly things work, we blame the team when they don’t.
As the Mets prepare for one of the most consequential regular season series in recent memory, embrace the ridiculous act of being a fan. Because the one thing we haven’t talked about is happiness. It feels good to be part of something, whether directly or through allegiance.
This is why we watch.
📸 Wild Card Snapshot
As the Mets prepared for Atlanta, Michael Conforto and the Giants put a hurtin’ on the Diamondbacks to give New York a 1/2 game lead for the second wild-card spot.
It’s possible the Amazins could sneak into the playoffs via Arizona (whom they already hold the tiebreaker) instead of Atlanta, offering an alternate path to October.
🍾 CLINCHING SCENARIOS: Regardless of what Arizona does, the Mets clinch a playoff berth with two wins in Atlanta or four wins over their final six games.
🌱 SEEDING: Reaching the postseason is more important than seeding, and the randomness of baseball always reminds us that you can never predict the easiest route to the World Series, but it’s hard not to wonder if the Mets would be better off with the six seed.
While five is higher than six, the way the postseason bracket shakes out, the Mets could be setting themselves up for a date with the hottest team in baseball in the Wild Card round.
The Padres are 40–16 since the end of July. You read that correctly: 40–16! Instead of extending their stay in Milwaukee to play a Brewers team that is a pedestrian 9–11 over ther last 20, the Amazins could find themselves on a plane to California to face the same team that beat them in 2022.
If the top seeds remain in the same order, the fifth seed would also mean a potential date with the Dodgers instead of the Phillies in the second round. Los Angeles enters the playoffs in an impossible position: expected to win the World Series despite a rotation that is held together by scotch tape.
We will worry about all of this when it is the proper timing, but something to consider as you watch the standings.
😈 Exorcising Demons
I was 16 years old, wearing baggy jeans and a blue Mets cap over a buzz cut, when the Braves first broke my heart. I was young enough to believe anything could happen, that my favorite team could overcome a 3-0 deficit to advance to the World Series. Sweet revenge after Atlanta had spoiled the idea of winning the division that year with a September sweep. It was going to happen… until it didn’t.
The following June, months after John Rocker had turned himself into Public Enemy #1 with his disgusting comments about New York, I had navigated through all of the extra security, police on horses, to sit with my family along the third base line when Mike Piazza capped off an amazing seven-run comeback to put the Mets within two games of the first-place Braves.
The Mets never caught Atlanta, but would go on to play the Yankees in the World Series that season, avoiding the Braves in the playoffs. They had made it farther in the postseason, but it still didn’t feel like they had slayed the dragon.
Over the next 23 years, the Braves continued what they had done the previous decade, going on to win the division 12 times, while the Mets would only raised the NL East banner twice. The most painful reminder of Big Brother’s dominance coming two years ago when an 101-win season went up in smoke because a series like one that confronts the team now turned a one-game lead into a two-game deficit after yet another Atlanta sweep.
Kenny Rogers. Chipper Jones (his son Shea). Turner Field. 101 wins with deGrom, Scherzer and Bassitt lined up.
Names and phrases that don’t require any detail for Mets fans to know exactly what they mean.
It’s time to exorcise all of those demons and clinch a wild-card berth this week in Atlanta.
☔️ Hurricane Season
As if we don’t have enough to worry about, a tropical storm system could put Thursday’s game in jeopardy. It’s as if this season was destined to come down to a one-game playoff, new tie-breaking rules be damned.
The latest from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm hitting Georgia on Thursday evening.
The graphic above shows the probably path of the storm; the impact will be felt throughout the state, with as much as 3-to-4 inches of rain expected on Thursday and a potential for significant heavy winds.
🔻 What will they do? MLB has already moved Tuesday’s game between the Tigers and Rays in Detroit from 6:40 pm to 1:10 pm because of poor weather. If they believe there is a window for Thursday’s game, they could adjust the start time from 7:20 pm, or even move the game and make it a doubleheader on Wednesday, although there is rain in the forecast on that day as well.
Having already scheduled this game on an off day for a makeup from earlier in the season, the two teams could technically play on the Monday before the Wild Card series if the outcome is still consequential to the standings.
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🆚 Pitching Decisions
I’m still confused by the decision to stick with David Peterson over Jose Quintana on Wednesday.
The Braves are a righty-heavy lineup that punishes left-handed pitching, presenting a formidable match-up for any of the Mets’ southpaws. But when you look at Quintana’s numbers over the past month, he has been far more effective retiring righties than Peterson, allowing a meager .169 slugging against in his last five starts, compared to righties slugging at a .420 clip against Peterson in that time.
Peterson has allowed four earned runs in two of his past three starts, failing to reach the fifth inning in either of them, while Quintana has held opponents scoreless and pitched into the seventh in three straight starts.
What else could it be?
Both pitchers have faced Atlanta this season, neither looking very impressive, but both of Quintana’s starts were early in the year, while Peterson saw them in late July.
Extra rest shouldn’t be a factor considering both Peterson and Quintana have found recent success pitching on four or five days of rest.
Maybe they just want the best possible match-up against the red-hot Matt Olson? That can’t be it either, as Olson has murdered Peterson over the years with a career slugging percentage that literally doubles his performance against Quintana (1.000 vs Peterson / .500 vs Quintana).
Looking ahead, the Mets moved Luis Severino to Tuesday so he would be available to start a critical game on Sunday, and if not, Game 1 or 2 of a potential Wild Card series, with Sean Manaea in line to start the other game. Both Peterson and Quintana would be on extra rest to pitch a Game 3.
In the end, the Mets might need Friday’s game as much as Wednesday’s, so slotting Quintana for that game could work out. He was very effective against Milwaukee’s lineup on Opening Day, although that is basically an entire season ago.
⚾️ Closing Time
This series could come down to a battle between elite closers. As good as Edwin Díaz has been, Raisel Iglesias has been even better, having made six two-inning appearances since July 8, not allowing a single run in any of them. Iglesias got rocked by the Dodgers earlier in the month, but has otherwise been lights out, allowing an earned run in only one other appearance since the beginning of June.
Building a bridge to Iglesias, Joe Jiménez has stitched together 12 straight games without allowing an earned run, striking out 23 and walking only four during that stretch. Pierce Johnson hasn’t been quite as effective as Jimenez, but has proven reliable in a set-up role as well.
Brian Snitker has two lefties at his disposal in Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee. Both have a propensity to give up a long ball, particularly Lee, who has actually faired better against righties than lefties this season.
🕷️ Find headlines for all of your favorite teams at SportSpyder, the number one source for sports news links.
◾️ A day after failing against the Mets, the Phillies clinched the NL East in front of their home fans.
◾️ The Reds fired manager David Bell after six seasons.
◾️ Four-time All Star Charlie Blackmon will retire at the end of the season.
◾️ The Tigers called up top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe to join their major-league bullpen.
🔗 How playoff-contending Mets have exceeded 2024 expectations, by Kiley McDaniel, ESPN ($): “The results have been very similar to what we became accustomed to seeing from Stearns' teams in Milwaukee: strong performances from a group of under-the-radar additions. Severino has been excellent, Manaea is having a career year, Iglesias has had his best season since 2013 and Bader and Ottavino have been solid.”
🔗 This new Mets/baseball gods alliance is about to be tested in Atlanta, by Andy Martino, SNY: “The Mets on the field are not Metsing. A new era of confidence, professionalism and seriousness in the clubhouse appears to be upon us. But. But. But. But. But. But. There is still the matter of the Atlanta Braves. None of this progress will feel real in Metsland if the team stumbles in the series that begins on Tuesday. Three games cannot define a season, era, or franchise. The Mets are set up for long-term success no matter how this year ends.”
🔗 Q&A: Luisangel Acuña talks whirlwind start to MLB career, by Bill Ladson, MLB: “I didn’t expect to be called up. All I was focused on doing was doing my job at Triple-A [Syracuse], working as hard as I possibly could and getting results there. I didn’t think I would be called up at this point.”
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Terrific essay on sports fandom! I once knew someone who was a big sports fan who gave it all up because he didn’t want factors beyond his control affecting his mood.
I really want us to get the 6th seed, but it’s looking unlikely now. If we win 2 of 3 against the Braves it’s unlikely we finish behind AZ.
The only sensible move is to play a doubleheader Wednesday. Even if you can sneak Thursday in, do you want a capacity crowd driving home in a hurricane? And with 3 teams closely bunched, it’s not likely that the game can be canceled and not made up.
The opening gave me goosebumps... YOU GOTTA BELIEVE