Euphoria in Atlanta
Morning Dose: Tuesday, October 1
☀️ Good Morning:
Francisco Lindor looked up into the sky, the same one that had brought hurricane winds and torrential rain a few days earlier to force this Win-or-Go-Home doubleheader.
He had just hit one of the biggest home runs in franchise history, creating a Remember-where-you-were moment for Mets fans who had escaped work, afternoon activities and school to watch their favorite team rally, fall apart, and rally again.
He appeared emotional as he spoke to the heavens above, humbling himself to a God that usually smiles on the Braves instead of the Mets, but not on this particular day.
In a unique regular season game that felt oddly reminiscent of Game 6 of the 1986 NLCS, the Mets did the unthinkable: they beat the Braves in a must-win game in Atlanta.
New York became only the fourth team in major-league history to start a season 0–5 and make the postseason. They did it by playing better than any other team in baseball since the beginning of June. Over the final month of the season, they erased a seven-game Arizona lead in the wild-card standings and technically overcame a four-game deficit to Atlanta (losing the tiebreaker).
As I wrote on Monday, as much as Mets fans were worried about an epic collapse in the final week, it was Arizona and Atlanta who slid down the standings in September.
A special season requires special moments.
In a year when Carlos Mendoza’s group orchestrated 41 comeback victories and 11 walk-offs, they saved the most dramatic moment for last, one that will remain etched in baseball lore for decades to come.
The Amazins entered the game on Monday 0–47 when trailing by three runs or more in the eighth inning or later this season. They had lost 77 straight such games, per the great Sarah Langs.
After teasing the fanbase with what seemed like would be an historic six-run eighth inning to turn a 3–0 deficit into a 6–3 lead, Edwin Díaz faltered as his counterpart Raisel Iglesias had the inning before, allowing Atlanta to reclaim the lead at 7–6.
The House of Horrors had struck again. A familiar ending was coming.
But the thing about haunted houses is that no matter how much they scare you, and we had more than a few screams on Monday, when you are able to compose yourself, you remember they aren’t real, there’s a harmless person behind the mask.
Atlanta has been a House of Horrors for generations of Mets fans. The 2024 team finally pulled back the curtain to prove it is no different than any other ballpark.
Suddenly the home team looked like the frightened visitor, blowing two late leads before having their ace scratched with a mysterious back injury moments before the second game started.
“I have never seen anything like it – it was a rollercoaster,” Steve Cohen said after the game, via Mike Puma. “I was in tears in the eighth inning when we went ahead. I was in shock when we lost the lead and then Francisco stepping up, an incredible moment.”
Atlanta still took care of business to clinch a playoff spot in the second game. It felt a bit like a superhero failing to kill the villain while they had the chance. If the Mets and Braves meet in the NLCS, we might lament the day they only had to beat Grant Holmes to send Atlanta packing. Although, we can only hope to worry about that in a few weeks.
🎧 Mets Fix Podcast
Blake & Peter break down the epic, historic win in Atlanta, reliving the best moments, saluting the unsung heroes, and discussing where it belongs in the pantheon of greatest Mets moments.
Make sure you’re subscribed to the Mets Fix Podcast on your favorite platform (Apple, Spotify, SoundCloud).
💙 Before we get into the rest of the newsletter, I just want to say, Cherish this moment, everyone. As I mentioned in the chat, it’s incredibly rare to follow a professional sports team that exceeds expectations and makes you feel like a kid again. Every reader, from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic, who comments on the newsletter or in the chat represents the emotions of being a fan. It’s a joy to experience this with all of you. What started as an email to a few friends has turned into an amazing community because of you.
☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
📈 Heart stopper
The Mets have had some incredible wins over their 63-year history. But it’s hard to come up with a regular season game that can possibly match what we witnessed on Monday afternoon.
Let’s re-live the game with each of the key moments.
INNING: 🔻 3rd
SCORE: 0–0
NYM Win % (before play): 40.5%
PLAY: Ozzie Albies, 2-run homer
NYM Win % (after play): 23.6%
RESULTING SCORE: 2–0 Atlanta
…
INNING: 🔺 8th
SCORE: 3–2 Atlanta
NYM Win % (before play): 47.0%
PLAY: Jose Iglesias, RBI single
NYM Win % (after play): 74.7%
RESULTING SCORE: 3–3
…
INNING: 🔺 8th
SCORE: 4–3 Mets
NYM Win % (before play): 76.4%
PLAY: Brandon Nimmo, two-run homer
NYM Win % (after play): 92.1%
RESULTING SCORE: 6–3 Mets
…
INNING: 🔻 8th
SCORE: 6–3 Mets
NYM Win % (before play): 89.7%
PLAY: Edwin Díaz forgets to cover first against Jarred Kelenic of all people
NYM Win % (after play): 82.9%
RESULTING SCORE: 6–4 Mets
…
INNING: 🔻 8th
SCORE: 6–4 Mets
NYM Win % (before play): 76.8%
PLAY: Ozzie Albies, bases-clearing double
NYM Win % (after play): 14.3%
RESULTING SCORE: 7–6 Braves
…
INNING: 🔺 9th
SCORE: 7–6 Braves
NYM Win % (before play): 17.5%
PLAY: Francisco Lindor, go-ahead home run
NYM Win % (after play): 81.6%
RESULTING SCORE: 8–7 Mets
🍎 So much to talk about…
◾️ Refusing to quit. Edwin Díaz had been told he was finished after blowing a three-run lead in the eighth inning. But after his teammates picked him up and grabbed the lead back, Díaz pleaded to his manager to return for the ninth.
“I’m going back out. I don’t care what you say, I’m going back out,” he said, via The Athletic. “I got this shit.”
After a forgettable eighth that included a gut-punch mistake against his long ago trade counterpart Jarred Kelenic, Díaz finished the game, poetically retiring Travis d’Arnaud for the final out in the ninth.
The best decision by the Mets’ closer wasn’t during the actual game, but when he refrained from celebrating on the mound, because… well, you know.
◾️ Kudos to Mendoza. There are managers who fail trusting their veterans too much. That’s arguably what cost Buck Showalter his job. Carlos Mendoza closed out a masterful year as a rookie manager by trusting his star players and it paid off. He put J.D. Martinez in the lineup despite a horrific slump and he responded with two hits on Sunday and reaching base twice on Monday. He let Díaz return for the ninth inning after a disastrous eighth. He kept Lindor at short despite an aching back, and we know what happened because of that decision.
◾️ To party or not to party. After one of the most memorable seasons in Mets’ history, the team deserves to celebrate. They did so after the doubleheader on Monday. But with the Wild Card Series starting less than 24 hours later, it begs the question whether they should call the party early. If the Mets come out flat tonight, people will surely blame the post-game festivities; if they come out free and loose, they will credit the party. Let’s hope it’s the latter.
📖 Turning the Page
◾️ Luis Severino will start Game 1. He had quite the day on Monday, needing to prepare as if he was pitching the second game of the doubleheader, balancing his warm-up routine during the see-saw finish. He spent time in the hot tub, stretched for a while and went to the gym to warm-up, per Anthony DiComo. He actually stopped warming up when the Mets went ahead in the eighth and had to scramble back when they fell behind again.
Severino faced Milwaukee the second game of the season, which feels like an eternity ago. He pitched five innings, allowing three runs in the first, in part because of an error, and later surrendered a home run to everyone’s favorite opponent, Rhys Hoskins.
The veteran righty has allowed three runs or more in each of his last three starts. Home Runs remain an Achilles’ heel. He has served up four of them in the past three games. That could be a problem against a Brewers lineup that has the seventh most long balls against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of August.
Severino has not had the greatest postseason success over his career, with a 1–4 record and 5.15 ERA over 10 series with the Yankees. He has defied expectations all year, so let’s see if he can do it again in the playoffs.
◾️ Playoff roster. The Mets optioned Alex Young before the second game of the doubleheader to call up Joey Lucchesi, who did a great job keeping the game close to make the Braves sweat.
New York had been carrying two extra roster players through September, so one reliever and one positional player had to go no matter what, and Young became the reliever. He is ineligible to be added to either the Wild Card Series or potential NLDS roster unless he replaces an injured player. Lucchesi will also miss the postseason roster.
David Stearns could add a fresh arm by replacing Tylor Megill’s spot with another pitcher. That could create an opportunity for someone like Max Kranick, who traveled with the team to Atlanta. He closed the season with a 2.57 ERA over his final six appearances, including one two-inning start.
Eddy Alvarez is not eligible for the postseason roster, having been acquired after September 1, making him an easy removal to get the positional count down to 13.
◾️ Lindor’s health. As cool as it was to see Lindor nonchalant his way around the bases on his dramatic home run, it also raises concerns. He’s hurting so badly he can’t even celebrate a career moment? When asked what was going through his head as he rounded the bases after his season-saving homer, he responded, “My back hurts. I’m tired.” Will that catch up to him in a playoff run? Should he still be playing short?
◾️ Speed trap. The Brewers don’t just steal bases on the Mets, manager Pat Murphy made it a priority in spring training to steal as many as possible. After swiping every extra base they could against the Mets over the weekend, they finished the season with 217 steals, the second most in baseball. If the Mets want to win this short series, they will have to do a better job containing the run game.
“It’s a huge part of our offense, and we’re going to keep running in the postseason until they stop us,” Murphy said, via MLB.
◾️ The REAL House of Horrors. New York will try to exorcise another demon this week in Milwaukee. The Brewers have beaten the Mets in 12 of their past 14 meetings, including 20 of 24 at American Family Field.
⚾️ Pitching Staffs
Milwaukee will send right-hander Freddy Peralta (11–9, 3.46) to the mound in Game 1. The Mets last saw him on Opening Day when he shut them down with six innings of one-run ball, striking out eight.
He leans heavily on his 94-mph four-seamer, offsetting it with a slider, changeup and curveball. He has at least a 35% whiff rate against each of his secondary offerings.
METS BULLPEN: The Mets hope Severino can provide them with length in Game 1. Both Edwin Díaz and Phil Maton would be extremely compromised if they somehow had to pitch again on Tuesday. As noted above, it’s possible Stearns adds another pitcher to the roster in place of Megill.
BREWERS BULLPEN: The Brewers have one of the best bullpens in baseball, leading the National League with a 3.11 ERA despite Devin Williams missing the majority of the season. Williams has been lights out since returning to the mound, pitching to a microscopic 1.25 ERA over 22 appearances. He has Tylor’s brother, Trevor, southpaw Jared Koenig and right-hander Joel Payamps setting him up. You could see Bryan Hudson on the postseason roster instead of Nick Mears. Joe Ross is another depth candidate.
Milwaukee will likely start Frankie Montas in Game 2 and use Tobias Myers as a bulk pitcher behind an opener in Game 3. Aaron Civale is another possibility; he is otherwise lined up to start Game 1 of the NLDS.
🕷️ Find headlines for all of your favorite teams at SportSpyder, the number one source for sports news links.
🔗 Brewers manager Pat Murphy’s painful lessons fuel his team’s success, by Cody Stavenhagen, The Athletic ($): “The man who now manages the Milwaukee Brewers was a 13-year-old boy when his father, Ty, tried to get off the bottle. He quit booze cold. His older brothers took his mother out of the house, because these things were always hard. So there was Murphy, 13 years old and essentially alone, when the delirium tremens set it. In the next room, his father shook and hallucinated. Soaked the sheets with cold sweats. Begged his 13-year-old son to go get him a six-pack. During the night, Murphy heard his father’s heavy breaths. Gasps for air.”
🔗 How the Mets, Braves fought back to earn postseason spots, by Buster Olney, ESPN: “In the clubhouses at Truist Park on Monday, two champagne celebrations were conducted simultaneously, one by the New York Mets and one by the Atlanta Braves. The managers were soaked before retreating to their respective offices, grinning and alone, still processing all that had taken place on the final day of baseball's regular season.”
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Amazing game yesterday. I probably messaged "Holy shit" a half a dozen times to friends and family members.
I like our chances, the past record doesn't matter. (Sigh, 1988, Dodgers.)
The Brewers are a well-rounded team, with obvious strengths. Speed and defense and a great bullpen, for sure.
Their starting pitchers are only good. Mets need to score early and our pitchers cannot walk these guys. It could be that Torrens gets a start if Alvy's defensive shortcomings continue to be this pronounced. It's a concern. But no team is perfect. He also has a knack for the big hit.
Mets in two. I believe.
I’m so happy. I had a feeling something special was going to happen. Yesterday I played tennis in a charity tennis/ golf tournament, so I couldn’t watch the game, but I checked the score on all the changeovers, sharing the news with my fellow players. At last year’s event, I had to leave early to sing the Anthem for the Mets. Before I left, a photographer arrived to shoot some photos- I thought it was a mirage, but there was Marc Levine, the great Mets team photographer, who tragically passed away in July. I got to know Marc over the years from singing the Anthem. He was a great guy, and often donated his services for fundraisers. He had taken that night’s game off to shoot the tournament. It was the last time I saw him. So Marc was on my mind yesterday as I drove to the event. How perfect that we won that game.
PS Last night, I read the Chat from beginning to end- amazing. Jeff, is there a way to preserve it? It should documented as a perfect example of what it means to be a Mets fan.
PPS Now let’s go beat the Brewers!