Good Morning,
Today we will talk about J.D. Davis and the Mets’ defense, but we start with the day’s news.
(Also, don’t forget to check out the Mets Fix website.)
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
💰 CONTRACT TALKS: Mets outfielder Michael Conforto told reporters on Tuesday that he hasn’t discussed a contract extension with the team this offseason, but he hopes discussions pick up in the coming weeks. Conforto provided the update after receiving the Thurman Munson Award in a virtual ceremony.
LUXURY TAX: If the Mets plan on spending the remaining $30 million or so in payroll before they hit the tax line, it would be beneficial to delay any extension with Conforto until after the season starts. If a deal is officially reached before Opening Day, his new contract will trigger a higher average annual value than the pre-arbitration amount he already negotiated with the team last month.
👩⚖️ ARBITRATION: After failing to settle on a contract for 2021, J.D. Davis and the Mets were the first of 13 MLB cases to make arbitration arguments during a hearing on Tuesday.
ASKING PRICE: Davis is asking for $2.475 million, while the Mets hope to pay him only $2.1 million. He made $592,463 last year. After hearing arguments from both sides, the panel will pick one of the two salaries suggested (and not one in-between). More on Davis and his value in a minute.
HISTORY: Teams won seven of 12 hearings last year, including six of the first seven, and had a winning record for the fourth time in six years, per the AP.
🔝 SHORTSTOP: Francisco Lindor was ranked by MLB Network as the 4th best shortstop in the game right now, behind Trevor Story, Fernado Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.
CONTEXT: Lindor had a down year in 2020 (didn’t we all?), which contributes to the timely ranking. However, since 2018, no shortstop in baseball has produced more WAR than Lindor (as he ranks above both Bogaerts (2nd) and Story (3rd)). Of course, Tatis Jr. has only been in the league since 2019.
🛑 SUSPENSION: After The Athletic revealed a pattern of misconduct toward women by former Mets manager Mickey Callaway, the Angels have suspended him as their pitching coach.
ANGELS STATEMENT: “Late yesterday we were made aware of the allegations reported in The Athletic. This morning we suspended Mickey Callaway and will work closely with MLB to conduct a full investigation."
JUST CAUSE: From Alden Gonzalez of ESPN: “Callaway has initially denied wrongdoing, a source told ESPN, which prevents the Angels from firing him without the just cause that could be procured from an investigation. MLB and the Angels are hoping to wrap up that investigation relatively soon, perhaps before the start of spring training, the source said.”
Solving a JD Davis problem
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
In many ways, the Mets are built like a fantasy baseball team in a league that doesn’t value defense. Dom Smith, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto make for a great outfield if they don’t have to collectively work together to catch the baseball. The same goes for J.D. Davis at third base. As long as he continues to mash, he might as well just throw his glove in the air because defensive metrics don’t matter in most fantasy leagues.
But for the 2021 Mets, who play real baseball on the field, defense does matter. And with the designated hitter unlikely to return this season due to a collective bargaining war between the owners and players, Sandy Alderson and Zack Scott have their work cut out for them in fielding the most optimal lineup.
As it stands today, half of the everyday players responsible for helping the pitcher generate outs would be graded as below average at their respective positions. That includes Nimmo in centerfield, Smith in left, Pete Alonso at first base, and Davis at third. Lucky for the Mets, Robinson Cano’s suspension allows them to find an ideal home for Jeff McNeil at second; otherwise, they would have another player to worry about in the field.
That leaves the front office with some final decisions to make on how to improve the roster, weighing how much offense they can give up in favor of defense, especially without the safety net of the designated hitter.
Surprisingly, if you look at the depth chart rankings by FanGraphs that combine both Steamer and ZiPS projections, the Mets stack up pretty well against their division counterparts, despite their defensive shortcomings.
Since I’ve already beaten the drum about how James McCann failed to move the needle in terms of the projections, let’s focus on J.D. Davis. We know the Mets are monitoring the market for Jackie Bradley Jr. to help improve their outfield situation, but it’s unclear whether they will make a move to upgrade the hot corner.
Should they?
Again, if defense didn’t matter, Davis would be a perfectly fine option at third. His 28 home runs and .288/.370/.483 slash line since arriving in New York contribute to a production value (wRC+ of 129) that puts him right in-between potential trade option Kris Bryant (124) and former Met and current free agent Justin Turner (134) over that timeframe.
The question is how much value the Mets lose by playing him everyday in the field. As an outfielder, the answer is too much. Since 2019, Davis has been 9 outs below average chasing down fly balls. However, at third base, there might be some hope.
Defensive value is difficult to measure for a whole variety of reasons, but one area that plays a large part in how well a player performs is positioning. If you have a third baseman who isn’t very good at ranging to his right (like Davis), you can try to cheat by positioning him a step closer to the line, hoping your shortstop can make up the lost ground in the 3B/SS hole (more on this in a bit).
The introduction of Statcast to measure infield defense allows us to better understand how difficult each play was to make relative to how hard the ball was hit and how far the fielder needed to travel, while considering the speed of the runner. These parameters translate into a metric called Outs Above Average (OAA) which help us measure a player’s range relative to how the average fielder would perform given the same circumstances.
This is different from older defensive metrics such as Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), which approximates a player’s range based on how many outs were recorded from balls hit in their general direction (or zone), without accounting for positioning.
What does this all mean? No matter which defensive metric you use, UZR, OAA, or especially Defensive Runs Saved, J.D. Davis is what your eyes tell you he is, and that is a bad defensive player.
However, if you focus on how the Mets have mixed and positioned their players to field the area around third base over the past two seasons, you find that they have done a decent job minimizing the impact of having two poor defenders in Davis and an older Todd Frazier playing the majority of the innings there.
As you can see in the graphic above, there are times when shortstops Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez were positioned as if they were third basemen (meaning they were the infielders closest to the third base line for a particular play due to shifting) and they helped improve the team’s overall defense by a combined 3 outs above average since 2019.
This is where Francisco Lindor could be a great help. The new everyday shortstop for the Mets ranks third among shortstops since 2017 in ranging to his left, which means you can shade him toward the 3B/SS hole (as hinted earlier) and expect him to use his range to make up for balls hit to his left, while providing added coverage for Davis at third.
Is this enough to make up for Davis’ poor defense? Not entirely. But we also don’t know how the young power hitter will look over a larger sample of games: will more reps lead to more errors, or will he eventually gain a better feel for the ball off the bat and perhaps play stronger defense?
The Mets find themselves in a tough position if they don’t have the DH to cycle their poor defenders off the field while preserving their bats. However, with the right positioning, the addition of Francisco Lindor at shortstop, and the possibility of adding a utility player who can take some of the load off Davis on defense, that might be enough for Luis Rojas to find a way to make a group of rotisserie players competitive with their gloves.
⚾️ The Twins have signed Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $13 million contract, per Jeff Passan.
⚾️ Minnesota is also interested in the services of right-handed reliever Alex Colomé, per The Athletic.
⚾️ Toronto has agreed to terms with left-hander Francisco Liriano, per Rob Longley.
⚾️ Right-hander Chris Archer has a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, after coming off of thoracic outlet surgery, per Ken Rosenthal.
⚾️ Sean Doolittle is signing a one-year deal with the Reds, per Jon Morosi.
⚾️ The Padres have promoted A.J. Preller to President of Baseball Operations and G.M.
And we leave you with a few fun videos: the first of Dominic Smith as a catcher!
And the second of Franklyn Kilomé throwing with Pedro Martinez…
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