The Metropolitan: Just extend Michael Conforto
And a few new names tied to the Mets in free agency
Good Morning,
Today we will talk about extending Michael Conforto, but we start with the day’s news.
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
🗣 UTILITY: The Mets have expressed interest in utility infielder Marwin González, per Anthony DiComo.
DOES IT ALL: The 31-year-old is a switch-hitter who has been 8 outs above average over the past two years, playing second base (+4 OAA), third base (+4 OAA), and first base (+3 OAA). He has also worked in the outfield, but without the same success, per Statcast.
POP: The former Astro and Twin also carries some pop in his bat with most projection systems counting on him to mash 12-15 home runs this year.
CROWDED MARKET: The Mets are among at least a half dozen other teams who are interested in the versatile veteran.
💪 VETERAN ARM: The Mets are among three teams showing interest in 40-year-old left-hander Rich Hill, per WEEI.
STILL HAS IT? Hill went 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 8 starts for the Twins last season. However, his strikeout (19.9%) and walk (10.9%) rates resulted in a differential between the two that was his lowest since 2009.
⚾️ CLAIMED: After designating Robel García for assignment to make room for Jordan Yamamoto, the 27-year-old switch hitter was claimed on Wednesday by the Los Angeles Angels.
🍎 LEAVING: Mets minor league coach Trey Hannam announced on Twitter that he has resigned.
🏆 BATTING TITLE: A scout tells SNY’s John Harper that Jeff McNeil could win a batting title one day: “He didn’t look right to me until September. Then he went back to hitting line drives, using the whole field, and he looked like that guy who can really handle the bat. If he can stick with that approach, he’ll probably win a batting title and he’ll hit with power too if he just lets it happen.”
🔝 BEST RIGHT FIELDERS: MLB Network ranked Michael Conforto as the 7th best right fielder in the game right now (more on this in 15 seconds).
🗓 SOON: The Mets have scheduled their first full-squad workout for February 22, per Mike Puma.
📚 FEBRUARY 4, 1963: Mayor Robert Wagner signs a bill that officially changes the name of the stadium being constructed in Queens to William A. Shea Municipal Stadium, honoring the NY attorney who was instrumental in bringing National League Baseball back to New York.
Just extend Michael Conforto
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
Imagine I told you it was possible that the government could forgive your student debt next year, but this debt carries a high interest rate until then. Would you still choose to pay the added interest now and lower your debt, until you found out what happened? Maybe you are lucky enough not to have student debt at all. But if you are like me, and you spent a lot of money to go to a school like George Washington University so you could debate kids about politics and carry around a diploma with the first president’s head on it, you are probably still dishing out different kinds of paper with president’s heads on it.
In thinking about the decision to sign Michael Conforto (or Francisco Lindor) to an extension this offseason, the Mets find themselves in a similar situation. Since the current CBA is set to expire next December, and it’s possible the rules for player salaries and luxury tax calculations could completely change, it’s hard to know whether it is best to offer up a large contract now or wait. And for that matter, it’s difficult for the player to know whether to accept an offer now or wait.
As the Mets try to negotiate a deal that sets the average annual value at a rate respective of the current tax thresholds, they could find out those thresholds don’t exist or dramatically change in the new CBA.
They could also find a market waiting for them in 2022 that is suddenly unshackled from the current tax rules and two seasons impacted by reduced attendance and ready to spend more than ever before.
Or a prolonged work stoppage just as the country is beginning to become fully vaccinated reminds everyone that the only thing worse than rancor between politicians is the bitterness between MLB owners and players. Can baseball survive another shutdown? What happens to player salaries in the offseason surrounding that?
Clearly, there are a lot of unknowns. However, with the Mets now owned by a man whose net worth suggests he can afford to pay any amount of payroll, regardless of the tax implications, and without a hard cap on spending, it sort of makes the discussion about player salary moot.
In other words, when asked whether the Mets should extend Michael Conforto for a lot of freaking money, the answer should be…
When I started writing this piece, I was ready to put together a table of players who have signed extensions around the same age and talent level as Conforto. I would then show some fancy numbers to explain why the homegrown star deserves a certain salary relative to those names. And this would matter if true budget restraints existed.
If you are a Knicks fan, you know exactly what I mean. The Joakim Noah signing is still sucking away at their cap space (not that they have used much of it recently).
Under the Wilpons, if the Mets overpaid for a player, it impacted how much they could spend on other players. If the luxury tax disappears, or if Steve Cohen turns into the owner Mets fans expect him to be and he has advertised to be, it doesn’t matter if Conforto makes $2 or $6 million more than his average annual market value. There is no rule in place to prevent the Mets from spending more money if the deal turns sour.
Another way to look at a contract extension is from the perspective of cost certainty. We have seen teams lock up arbitration (and pre-arb) players to extensions earlier and earlier. After young stars have received record amounts in arbitration, teams have decided to gain cost certainty in exchange for a quicker payday to the player on a multi-year deal. There is also an advantage in trying to “buy out” free agent years to delay when the player hits the market.
But with only one year remaining until Conforto is eligible for free agency and with Scott Boras whispering in his ear, it’s hard to believe the Mets could convince him a raise in 2021 is worth giving up a potential bidding war in the open market a few months later (even given the expected uncertainties).
A lot of words to say the Mets should just extend Conforto. But the Mets should just extend Conforto.
Now, if you come to this newsletter every morning to dive into the nitty gritty details, I saved this section for you. I want to clarify something I have been saying about the timing of Michael Conforto and Francisco Lindor’s extensions in terms of the luxury tax.
As I said above, none of this should really matter. But if for some reason the Mets do care about the tax this season and want to reduce their tax burden, they have to be careful in how they extend their two young stars.
I have previously explained that the Mets need to separate out each player’s 2021 salary from their extension value in order to keep the lower AAV in place for 2021. This is still true.
But what remains unclear is whether Opening Day is part of the calculus. Now that both Conforto and Lindor have one-year contracts for 2021 (which they settled ahead of arbitration), the Mets don’t need to include this season in a contract extension, unless they want to. Originally, I thought they needed to wait until after Opening Day to ensure the new AAV didn’t kick in until the following season, but after researching dozens of examples and re-reading the CBA and a day-long DM exchange with my new friend (and fellow CBA nerd) Bernard Ozarowski, I can’t say that for certain.
What I can say for certain is that if the Mets sign either player to an extension (assuming it’s timed appropriately), they can either replace the current one-year deal on the books with the new contract, which would then trigger a higher AAV in 2021, or they could choose to put the new extension in place after the current one-year deal expires.
Whether they need to officially sign the player before or after Opening Day to make sure this happens is unclear. We saw the Dodgers extend Mookie Betts right before Opening Day last season while keeping his 2020 arbitration salary on the books. But we have also seen other examples, such as the Cubs extending David Bote right after Opening Day in 2019, and this didn’t impact their ability to push his new AAV value to after his current one-year deal expired.
Of course, the Mets extended Jacob deGrom in 2019 while replacing the salary they negotiated with him ahead of arbitration only a few months earlier, and that deal was settled before Opening Day.
If you are reading this newsletter and know the answer to the timing question, please reach out (reply to this email) to let me know. But the fundamental point is the Mets can structure extensions for Conforto/Lindor that keep their lower 2021 salaries in place to help give them more breathing room in the current year while locking them up long-term.
The bigger question is what the heck are they going to do with the roughly $30 million they have left to spend this off-season? Spring Training is only a few weeks away!
⚾️ Mets’ target Jackie Bradley Jr. is seeking a “significant contract,” perhaps beyond four years, per Mike Puma.
⚾️ Free agent closer Alex Colomé has signed with the Twins, per Jon Heyman.
⚾️ Free agent reliever Joakim Soria has agreed to a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks, per Ken Rosenthal.
⚾️ Milwaukee has signed second baseman Kolten Wong to a multi-year deal, per Jon Morosi.
⚾️ Baltimore signed former Ace Felix Hernandez to a minor league contract, per Jon Heyman.
⚾️ After trading Nolan Arenado, the Rockies are not yet discussing Trevor Story in trade discussions, per Buster Olney.
🔗 Jim Bowden grades the Mets offseason with an A (2nd best behind Padres): “The Mets also might not be done: it is believed they have the best offer on the table for reigning Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer and also have been in play for Gold Glove-caliber center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. And they have at least touched base with the Cubs regarding third baseman Kris Bryant. If they were to land Bauer and Bradley, that would move the Mets to the top of this ranking with an A+. ( I had to leave some room just in case they make another significant signing.)”
🔗 Women should not be responsible for fixing harassment in MLB, by Deesha Thosar, NY Daily News: “When no one takes accountability for the Mickey Callaways of the world, and of their organization, the responsibility to rectify and prevent actions like Callaway’s ultimately falls on women. Women, who are inflicted by the emotional trauma that men like Callaway cause, end up bearing the responsibility of his actions because no one else – the Indians, Mets, Angels or MLB – stepped up and accepted that the burden was theirs to carry.”
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And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.
no comment lol