Catch me up in 30 seconds…
Steve Cohen will appear on SNY tonight for an interview with Steve Gelbs at 7:00 PM.
19-year-old catcher Francisco Alvarez was ranked the Mets’ top prospect in Baseball America’s 2021 preseason rankings.
Buster Olney expects the Mets to be major players this offseason (more on this in a bit).
Executive vice president and chief revenue officer Lou DePaoli, one of the highest-ranking executives under the Wilpons, will be leaving the organization at the end of the year, per Anthony DiComo.
ON THIS DATE IN 1973: Former Mets pitcher Octavio Dotel was born. He turns 47 today. Sort of a random birthday to celebrate, but seeing his name brings back memories of following the Mets when I was a teenager. I remember staying up late to watch him pitch one of his first games against the San Diego Padres. He was nearly un-hittable that night. I’m doing this all from memory (I will let you email me back if I get it wrong): but after walking a batter in the first, he didn’t allow another baserunner until the 7th, when he ended up walking a few hitters and serving up a 3-run home run. I was so disappointed. But slightly cheered up the next morning when the NY Post put him on the back page with the headline “Octavio Hotel.” Come to think about it, it was a late game, so maybe that was the headline the following day. But I remember that game. And I remember that headline. Following your favorite baseball team is just as much about loose memories as much as it is about statistics and salaries. With that said, let’s jump into that conversation 😆
Mets President
Sandy Alderson held a press conference on Monday to announce the organization is no longer looking for a new president of baseball operations due to their “limited access” when searching a suitable candidate from another team.
The Mets were denied permission to talk to Brewers president David Stearns, as an example. As teams work to prevent competitors from poaching top executive talent, they have been more creative in giving titles to key decision-makers so they can block them from interviewing for “lateral” moves.
This means Alderson, 73, will take a more active role in the day-to-day operations. He will turn his focus toward finding a full-time general manager to replace Brodie Van Wagenen. During the presser, he noted there are about six candidates who have been interviewed so far. He plans on presenting one or two options to Steve Cohen before making a decision.
More on this to come in future newsletters.
Happy Thanksgiving!
After launching this newsletter, I am humbled by how many of you already subscribe and read every issue. But I am most thankful for your generosity.
Thanks to you, we were able to raise enough money to feed 75 families in need on Thanksgiving!
It’s been a tough year for everyone, but doing something positive together feels good. Thanks again!
Charlie Morton
Veteran starter Charlie Morton agreed to a one-year, $15 million deal with the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday, receiving the same amount on the open market as he was set to make with his club option that was declined by Tampa. He returns to the organization that drafted him way back in 2002 (when getting your Mets news from an email newsletter that you can read on your phone was still science fiction).
The 37-year-old right-hander was someone the Mets were monitoring, per Tim Ryder of MetsMerized. He made a lot of sense as a free agent without draft pick compensation attached to his name and who is only two years removed from finishing third in Cy Young Award voting.
While you could make an argument that Morton is on the cusp of realizing his age — his strikeout rate dropped to a four-year low as his fastball velocity lost over 2 MPH since 2018 — there are reasons to believe he is still a top-level starter.
First, his velocity. As you read this from a closet you turned into an office instead of on a crowded train on your way to work, you know that 2020 is a strange year. Morton’s fastball velocity numbers are skewed by four starts he made between July and early August when baseball was ramping back up after being put on pause due to the coronavirus pandemic. The aging righty eventually ended up on the injured list due to right shoulder fatigue. Upon returning three weeks later, his four-seam fastball velocity was immediately back to its usual zip, averaging 94.6 in two of his final five appearances.
Second, his pitch mix. While it’s easy to get caught up in velocity and strikeouts, Morton’s effectiveness also tracks to his groundball rate. He relies on his sinker to generate easy outs when he’s not missing bats. Last year, he only induced a grounder on 41.6 percent of balls in play, by far a career-low. But again, this is something he improved after returning from injury, climbing back up toward 50 percent in September and October.
It appears Morton started the season without a good feel for his secondary pitches, relying on his four-seamer at a higher rate, perhaps contributing to his shoulder inflammation. By the time he was pitching his usual excellent self in the postseason, the four-seamer went from being his most deployed pitch to his fourth option, after his curveball, sinker, and cutter, which he used with high frequency, especially early in counts.
Third, longevity. While we have a pretty good story about Morton’s 2020 performance, the question now is what to expect going forward? Was his improved velocity a normal correction, or was it due to the way the Rays manage their pitching staff, especially in the postseason where starters know they are only expected to turn through the lineup twice. It’s not any different than a video game with a power bar that decreases with each pitch. You can try to preserve it as long as possible or cock back and throw when you know you only have to pitch for a few more innings or games in the season. That could have masked what is a possible trend the wrong way in velocity.
I don’t know how far Steve Cohen has gone in fixing the training staff on the Mets, but if you’ve spent any time following this team, it’s understandable if your PTSD kicks in when you think about a 37-year-old pitcher with recent shoulder fatigue issues. Then you remind yourself it’s Charlie Morton, and you might wish the Mets have signed him instead of a division rival.
Either way, Morton’s signing shouldn’t have kept you down too long, as shortly after learning the news, Buster Olney of ESPN reported the Mets are targeting more than one of the “Big Four” this winter of George Springer, JT Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, and Francisco Lindor.
Only one of those players is a pitcher (Bauer), so this doesn’t completely answer the question of how the Mets plan on filling out their rotation behind Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman (and hopefully a healthy Noah Syndergaard at some point too). David Peterson will to try to build off his breakout campaign, but whether he is the team’s third starter or pitching from the back of the rotation will be based on whether the team can acquire another high-quality arm.
Could that arm be Morton’s former teammate, Blake Snell, who is reportedly on the trade block?
Not if you see the price Tampa might request:
Multiple MLB sources have said that any sort of trade package the Mariners put together for Snell would have to include one of the following three players — Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic or Kyle Lewis — or the Rays wouldn’t make the deal.
Mets fans will recognize one of those names quite well. As the organization tries to build depth in their farm system, unless the only thing they are offering is financial relief and low-grade prospects or major league redundancies, I would avoid this type of trade.
There are other options on the free agent market, such as Bauer, or a second-tier choice like Masahiro Tanaka, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Mike Minor, and Jake Odorizzi?
I like Morton better than all of those starters, perhaps even Bauer, mainly because he would have been on a one-year deal, at no cost other than 2021 payroll, and he pitches best when the stakes are the highest (Mad Dog: Mikey, who do you trust most in a big spot?). Bauer has been objectively average except in 2018 and over a shotgun season that resulted in a Cy Young Award in 2020. And while he previously stated a preference for short-term contracts, his agent recently opened the door for him to negotiate a multi-year deal, which makes sense given the current economic climate and impending labor war next winter.
Should we be worried about Atlanta?
A Mets fan, worry about the Atlanta Braves? Why would we ever do that?
As much as it feels like we are living in a world where only our own space matters right now, the Mets don’t operate in a vacuum. By adding Charlie Morton, the Braves, a division rival, just got better.
A starting rotation that leads with Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson is pretty darn good. Atlanta also signed left-hander Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11 million deal last week. And if phenom Mike Soroka returns to form following his Achilles injury, this could be the best staff in the National League.
The good news is the Mets aren’t done. While the classic Mustang (Morton) has been pulled from the lot, there are plenty of fancy cars for Sandy Alderson (and his eventual GM) to choose from.
As Steve Cohen tweets about J-Lo while sitting under a painting in his living room that is probably worth more than the sum Morton just signed for, you can rest assured that the free agent market will wait on the Mets. They won’t get caught standing on the sidelines while every other team steals the best available players.
Morton is 37. Signing with Atlanta could be as simple as him wanting to end his career with the team that drafted him, as well as being closer to his Florida home. He would have been a nice option for the Mets, but we move on.
Thanks for reading! Look out for the next newsletter on Friday!
And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.
Mets miss out on Charlie Morton
If i may Wax Poetic here - Blake Snell is a jerk crying during a pandemic and Morton is too old. Better to go second tier - after Bauer of course - as they will be the 4 and or 5th starters when Thor is back. Until the Mets can knock the Braves off its thier division as it always is it seems. Good piece here on Mets Briefing !