Good Morning,
Don’t forget to bookmark our new website Mets Fix, where you'll find all the best breaking news, stories and links about the team compiled in one place, and posted in real time.
Today we will talk about the catching market (in the wake of JT Realmuto’s new contract), but we start with the news.
⏰ Catch me up in 60(ish) seconds…
🍎 BAUER WATCH: Yesterday was a day for Trevor Bauer rumors.
HOW IT STARTED: Bob Nightengale of USA Today started the day with a report that the Mets had made a formal offered to Bauer that would make him the highest paid player in terms of average annual value.
CONFLICTING REPORTS: SNY’s Andy Martino confirmed Nightengale’s report about the Mets’ formal offer, but noted it did not eclipse Gerrit Cole’s $36MM AAV. And MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand also reported the offer hadn’t surpassed Cole.
CORRECTION: Nightengale later corrected his original report, while confirming the Mets had made an offer, but only one that “approaches” Cole's $36 million average value.
FAVORITES: Nightengale added last night: “It’s unknown whether Bauer has any other formal offers, but it’s unlikely any team has made a higher bid, establishing the Mets as the clear favorites to land baseball’s top free-agent pitcher.”
TIMING: Mike Puma of the NY Post reports the offer to Bauer came “weeks ago,” and while it wouldn’t surpass Cole’s AAV, it would likely pay Bauer more than $30 million for at least four years, with opt outs embedded in the contract.
⚾️ HALL-OF-FAME: For the first time since 2013, no player reached the 75% threshold to be elected to the Baseball Hall-of-Fame. Learn more here.
🍎 FORMER METS: Billy Wagner had the strongest showing among former Mets on the ballot, with his vote total jumping from 31.7% to 46.4%. He has four more years of eligibility. As he inches closer to the 50% mark, it’s possible he eventually gets elected, but not probable.
🍎 OTHERS: Gary Sheffield (40.6%), Jeff Kent (32.4%), and Bobby Abreu (8.7%) also saw their vote totals increase over last year. LaTroy Hawkins and Michael Cuddyer appeared for the first time on the ballot, but failed to reach the 5% threshold to stay on.
🗣 FREE AGENT TALKS: The Mets have continued talks in recent days with free agent centerfielder Jackie Bradley Jr., per Mike Puma of the NY Post.
TWO SCENARIOS: Andy Martino reports the Mets are exploring two paths that would either lead them to sign Trevor Bauer or set their focus on finding a starting centerfielder like Bradley, and continue to add depth.
💰GAMESTOP: You might have noticed Steve Cohen’s name attached to GameStop yesterday and wondered what the heck was going on.
IN SHORT: Melvin Capital Management, managed by one of Cohen’s former traders Gabe Plotkin, received a $2.75 billion bailout from Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management and fellow hedge fund giant Ken Griffin’s Citadel. The influx of money was needed after a short bet had turned sour when retail investors, organized by a Reddit forum wallstreetbets, pushed GameStop’s price up as much as 145 percent on Monday.
IMPACT ON THE METS: Someone on Twitter asked if this would impact the Mets’ payroll to which Cohen responded, “Why would one have anything to do with the other.”
LEARN MORE: This thread on Twitter does an excellent job explaining the entire made-for-a-movie story:
The Catching Market
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
If you have small kids, you will relate to this. How many times have you brought your little one into a store where they begged you to buy something that was overpriced and destined to end up at the bottom of their toy box or conveniently left on the carpet where you will step on it someday?
Yeah, every time you walk into a store, right? Well, hopefully they will eventually learn that sometimes it is better to wait rather than convincing themselves to want something just because it happens to be right in front of them at that point in time.
I still feel that way about the logic in signing James McCann. “He was the SECOND BEST CATCHER ON THE MARKET.” That’s what everyone has convinced themselves in justifying the Mets decision to sign him to a 4-year, $40 million contract.
I talked about McCann leading up to the signing. This isn’t a second guess. I broke down video to show his improved framing mechanics. I studied his Statcast numbers. I get that his recent small sample of success could be an indicator of better things to come.
But as the Mets decided to pass on George Springer over a difference of $5 million in average annual salary — and with JT Realmuto settling for 5-years, $115 million to stay in Philadelphia — I still wonder where the Mets would be right now had they not been aggressive in scooping up McCann early in the offseason.
While their long-term outlay could turn out to be less, if the Mets were to sign, say, Jackie Bradley Jr. for 2-years, $22 million, they would be paying McCann and JBJ a combined $22 million AAV, instead of Springer for $25MM (?) and someone like Jason Castro (who has also been a Statcast darling over the past two years) an extra $3MM to fill in at catcher.
While the market is dynamic, and decisions aren’t made in a vacuum, we can look back to this chart from December 11. The salary projections are courtesy of FanGraphs.
We learned last night that former Met Wilson Ramos signed for 1-year, $2 million. Castro signed for 2-years, $7 million, Mike Zunino for 1-year, $3 million, and we know what McCann and Realmuto got. The rest of the catchers on that list are still free agents.
Projections are educated guesses. And the teams who make better guesses — based on their internal data and scouting — win. It’s possible McCann turns into a great signing. But if we look at the public projection systems right now, for the first year of a 30-year-old catcher’s multi-year contract, ZiPS projects 22 catchers to perform better than McCann and Steamer has 32 with higher WAR values in 2021. (Those numbers will change based on updated playing time assumptions, but you get the point).
The question has to be asked: Did the Mets misread the market for catching? Realmuto was said to want $200 million, but ultimately signed for just more than half of that. A market for him never really materialized, he ended up matching what was predicted at the beginning of the offseason (had the Mets pursued him, maybe the final number would have changed, but it’s hard to say by how much; the Phillies would have only gone so far). And even putting Realmuto aside, did the Mets truly need to offer four years and $40 million in order to get McCann?
Had New York waited and missed out on both McCann and Realmuto, it seems they could have easily found a short-term solution at backstop, either in free agency or trade, perhaps even piecing something together until they could sign someone next offseason, as they bridge the gap to Francisco Alvarez.
If the Mets are cognizant of the luxury tax line, even under Steve Cohen (which it appears they are), $10 million AAV over four years still feels like a lot of money to pay for a catcher who doesn’t guarantee them a significant improvement behind the plate over cheaper alternatives. And potentially at the cost of adding George Springer (whom the Francisco Lindor/Carlos Carrasco trade wouldn’t have impacted at that point).
⚾️ After failing to reach the 75% threshold to be elected into the Baseball Hall-of-Fame, Curt Schilling announced on Facebook that he has requested to be removed from the BBWAA ballot.
⚾️ Free agent Andrelton Simmons has agreed to a one-year, $10.5 million deal with the Twins, per Jeff Passan.
⚾️ The Blue Jays have agreed to sign Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18.5 million contract, with the salary inflated due to his willingness to move to second base, as first reported on Instagram by former Met Carlos Baerga.
⚾️ Free agent Tommy La Stella is signing with the Oakland Athletics, per Jon Heyman.
⚾️ The Brewers continue to listen to trade rumors for reliever Josh Hader, but the asking price is reportedly “overwhelming,” per FanSided.
⚾️ Free agent infielder Kolten Wong’s market is heating up, per Jon Morosi.
The Case For Keith Hernandez As A Hall of Famer
With the Hall-of-Fame announcement yesterday, I thought it would be a fun day to share an excerpt from the IBWAA Newsletter, Here’s the Pitch. Enjoy!
By Elizabeth Muratore
Not only did Hernandez reinvent the position of first base, he delivered at the plate time and time again for 17 years. He has the distinction of being the only co-MVP in MLB history, sharing the award with Pittsburgh Pirates slugger Willie Stargell in 1979. That season, Hernandez led the league in hitting with a .344 average, the best of his career. He finished his playing tenure with a career .296 average, accompanied by a .384 on-base percentage and over 2100 hits. He was a five-time All-Star, won two Silver Slugger awards, and finished in the top-25 in MVP voting seven other times in his career besides 1979.
These accolades suggest that Hernandez was clearly among the more dominant offensive players of his era as well, in addition to being a defensive wizard.
Thanks for reading! Follow us on Twitter for updates until tomorrow’s newsletter.
And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.