Can't catch a break

Morning Dose: Monday, March 10

☀️ Good Morning:

One of the less talked about factors that led to the Mets’ success last season was their health.

It’s not that nobody got injured, we know Kodai Senga missed basically the entire season, but 16 teams lost more games to injury than the Mets in 2024. In terms of value lost, 20 teams lost more WARP, per Baseball Prospectus.

That trend is already starting to look different this year.

After losing both Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas to early-spring injuries, and Nick Madrigal for the entire season, the Mets announced on Sunday that Francisco Álvarez will undergo surgery to fix a fractured hamate bone in his left hand and will be sidelined for at least six-to-eight weeks. He suffered the injury during live batting practice.

Álvarez was one of the few players who missed significant time last year, spending 52 days on the IL to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb.

That injury became a demarkation point between the very good and very bad parts of the season. Before the young catcher was injured, the team had won 11 straight games with him in the lineup (after losing the first five), standing 11–8 overall, and having won the first two in an early-season test against the Dodgers. Immediately following his injury, Carlos Mendoza’s group went into a tailspin, losing 25 of their next 36.

The tide started to turn after Francisco Lindor’s team meeting in late May, but it really picked up strength when Álvarez returned to the lineup in mid June. New York won 12 of the next 15 games with him back in the dugout, putting themselves back at .500 and back into the race for a wild-card seed.

This doesn’t tell a very promising story for what to expect in the first several weeks of the season while Álvarez is rehabbing from another injury.

But before you get too down on your luck, remember it is only March 10, the Mets gain a few weeks of time before the regular season begins, and at least we aren’t Yankee fans this morning, sweating over a second opinion on Gerrit Cole’s right elbow. Closer to home in the division, don’t forget the Braves will also start the season without their starting catcher (Sean Murphy is out six-to-eight weeks after breaking a rib).

The Mets have run into some bad luck to start their 2025 campaign, but bad luck is not reserved for the Mets — at least, not anymore. It’s up to the front office to find a suitable bridge to when Álvarez returns, a task that shouldn’t be as hard as it appears.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

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As good as the Mets’ record was with Álvarez in the lineup last year (58–27), it doesn’t entirely tell the story of his performance, particularly with a bat in his hands.

• June was a great month. Alvy returned, he hit .375 and sent three balls over the fence in 16 games, and the Mets pulled themselves back to .500.

• The rest of the season was a different story for the Venezuelan. His thumb injury seemed to sap his power, as he only hit two homers over 53 games from July 1 to September 10. His batting average was .190 during that span.

Of course, hitting is only one aspect of a catcher’s job. Next to pitcher and shortstop, there is no defensive position more important. Despite being barely old enough to drink, Álvarez has turned into a calming force behind the plate. Pitchers like throwing to him and the results are in the pudding.