BREAKING: A rich addition to the rotation
Zack Scott grabs a much-needed starter
👋 Hey there!
The trade deadline is only one week away, but with five games between now and Monday night, the Mets couldn’t afford to wait that long before adding a starting pitcher who can make it past the first few innings. They found their man in veteran left-hander Rich Hill, completing a trade today that will send the injured Tommy Hunter and minor league catcher/infielder Matt Dyer to Tampa Bay.
Why did the Mets do this deal?
Hill arrives in New York with a 6-4 record and 3.87 ERA. Most importantly, he brings a battle-tested arm, who can Pac-Man his way through innings in the back of the rotation. He has lasted at least five innings in 12 of his 19 outings this year, turning five of those into quality starts (allowing three runs or less).
While quality starts might be considered a stat of the past, for a team that has seven combined quality starts — six coming from David Peterson, who is still sidelined with a strained oblique — among the 41 made by pitchers not named deGrom, Walker, or Stroman, the bullpen will appreciate what their new teammate can offer.
The veteran Hill is most known for his tenure with the Dodgers from 2016-2019, during which he was a beloved mainstay in the rotation for the perennial National League champs, compiling a 3.16 ERA in 69 regular season games, along with a 3.06 over 13 post-season appearances, and striking out between 10 and 11 per nine innings each season. Perhaps his only detriment during that time was his inability to go long in games or stay healthy for long stretches, due largely to a blister problem.
Can Rich Hill still pitch?
This season Hill appeared to be defying Father Time, winning the American League Pitcher of the Month Award back in May. But the 41-year-old has regressed since MLB started to crack down on the use of sticky substances. Since June 12, he has a 5.40 ERA, and his K-BB% has been slashed in half, from 17.6% to start the season, to 8.3% over his past seven starts.
The southpaw relies on two pitches that require high levels of spin, throwing either a four-seam fastball or a curveball 84% of the time. Both pitches have lost spin since the ban on sticky stuff (his fastball ~150 RPMs, his curveball ~200 RPMs). Interestingly, that hasn’t changed the shape of either pitch. He is still throwing them with similar break and vertical drop. But he has also started to lose ticks on the radar gun, which, combined with a lower spin rate, has made both pitches more hittable.
In Eno Sarris’ latest pitcher rankings (released this morning), he has Hill slotted 80th, with his stuff graded well above average, in the range of Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler, but with sub-par command. But since late June, his stuff hasn’t looked nearly as good.
Besides his fastball and curveball, Hill throws an occasional slider to left-handed hitters. He experimented with a cutter early in the season to mixed results. He is now trying out a change-up, perhaps to make-up for what he has lost on his curveball against righties.
Even with the diminished stuff and challenges presented by the crackdown on sticky substances, Hill figures to provide the Mets more stability and surety than the likes of Robert Stock, Jerad Eickhoff and others asked to start key games of late. And he has a personality made for New York, featuring audible grunts during his pitches, a ridiculous leg kick and the most absurd attempts at hitting since Bartolo Colon. His gritty, competitive nature, combined with a sense of humor, might remind some Mets fans of Al Leiter.
What did the Mets give up?
Not much. Mets fans will miss Tommy Hunter’s infectious personality more than seeing him on the mound, considering he is still recovering from lower back discomfort that has him on the 60-Day IL. In fact, Hunter may not even return this season, and was said to be included in the deal to offset some of Hill’s salary.
Matt Dyer was a fourth round pick last year out of Arizona. A natural catcher, he is most regarded for his ability to play multiple positions — he played four this year for Low-A St. Lucie, as well as DH. However, he doesn’t play any of them particularly well. You won’t find his name on any top prospect lists, even deeper ones, although he does have some speed and pop.
If he somehow remains a catcher, the Mets have James McCann locked up for three more years, and Francisco Álvarez is clearly the backstop of the future.
Why would the Rays do this deal?
It’s always fascinating to look at trades from both sides. At first blush, it would appear as if the Rays are penny pinching after acquiring Nelson Cruz’s salary on Thursday, but if you offset the two months of money owed to Hill by the amount Tampa will owe Hunter, it’s only a few hundred thousand dollars in savings. (Hunter was originally signed for $2.25 million, but was released before his major league salary kicked in. The Mets later brought him back on a minor league contract.) Of course, for a Tampa team that just added nearly $5 million in salary in the Nelson Cruz trade — while aiming to have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball — saving half a million bucks isn’t nothing.
Tampa must also like something about Dyer, who is batting a meager .194 in Low-A this season, but has flashed some power with seven home runs in 36 games, while also swiping six bags. Never underestimate the Rays’ ability to find diamonds in the rough.
The Rays clearly also feel comfortable with the starters they are left with, including 21-year-old Luis Patiño, to whom they are said to want to give significant innings in the second half. Perhaps they are also worried about the injury risk associated with Hill, who has battled his share of ailments throughout his career, and if he’s gripping the ball differently due to the lack of sticky stuff, it could lead to another … (let’s not even finish that sentence).
The final word
Hill fills an immediate need in the rotation, as the likes of deGrom, Carrasco, Peterson, and Syndergaard work their way back to full health. He doesn’t need to be spectacular, he just needs to take the mound when it’s his turn in the rotation and keep the Mets in the ballgame.
If the team finally gets healthy, Hill could eventually give them an added lefty out of the bullpen. And should they need a fourth starter in the playoffs, he has plenty of experience in big games, having appeared in 13 postseason contests, most recently for the Dodgers in 2019, and achieving success on the big stage.
All in all, it’s a good deal, given the immediate need and the price they paid.
Thanks for reading, talk to you on Monday!
4 cheers! Any dissent?