Beware of Aggregation

Morning Dose: Wednesday, January 8

☀️ Good Morning:

Time is not always linear.

At least not in the world of Hot Stove baseball.

We were reminded of this on Tuesday when a note from a Bob Nightengale article quickly made the aggregation rounds, appearing on every Mets-related social media post, blog and old-fashioned sports talk show.

In reference to Pete Alonso’s ongoing contract negotiations, Nightengale wrote:

“Teams are reluctant to eclipse Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162 million contract and Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million deal while Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, uses Prince Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million contract with Detroit Tigers in 2012 as a comparison.”

Nine-years, $214 million?!

As the great Junior Soprano once said, “And I wanna f*ck Angie Dickenson. Let’s see who gets lucky first.”

Now, I understand why people would react the way they did to seeing this number, but the problem with aggregation is information often isn’t placed in proper context.

Is this new? Bob Nightengale didn’t tell us anything new about Scott Boras’ thinking on Tuesday. In fact, we have known Boras has wanted to reset the first base market since Alonso turned down a seven-year, $158 million extension in 2023.

Boras talked about this last November on The Show podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman.

“I got Mark Teixeira a contract… for $180 million in 2007 (and) I got Prince Fielder a contract at $214 million in 2011,’’ Boras told the two insiders last winter. “There are different dynamics you look at.”

“The revenue system of the game has dramatically changed over the last few years,’’ Boras continued. “I don’t think the (Freeman and Goldschmidt) contracts are really relevant to anything that has to do with what’s going to happen in the future, particularly with Pete Alonso.”

What this means: Let’s now pull the entire paragraph from Nightengale’s article on Tuesday morning:

For Alonso, a return to the New York Mets seems to be the likely outcome, but on a deal shorter than Alonso desires. The Mets, after already committing $918.1 million this winter, including a stunning $765 million for Soto, are holding their ground on Alonso. While they’d like a reunion with the four-time All-Star who has hit 226 home runs, they simply aren’t willing to give him a long-term deal for at least $200 million, not after his career-worst .788 OPS last season. Then again, no one else is either. Teams are reluctant to eclipse Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162 million contract and Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million deal while Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, uses Prince Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million contract with Detroit Tigers in 2012 as a comparison.

So while Boras started negotiations using the likes of Fielder and Teixeira to try to inflate the market for Alonso, we have since reached a point where that is obviously not realistic.

The most current reporting tells us where the negotiations actually stand:

• Jeff Passan on Monday: “At this point, Alonso will almost certainly get an opt-out-laden short-term deal, and the Mets do have a gaping hole at first, and until another team steps up, the expectation will be a renewal of vows.”

• Nightengale on Tuesday: “A return to the New York Mets seems to be the likely outcome, but on a deal shorter than Alonso desires.”

Those are your headlines, not the Prince Fielder comparable. Whether Alonso finds an appropriate deal with the Mets, or somewhere else, remains a coin flip, per Andy Martino. But let’s remain realistic about the final price.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!