Beating the Projections

Morning Dose: Wednesday, January 29

☀️ Good Morning:

Does anyone know if Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck are on good terms right now?

Because, honestly, I have lost track. I see their faces on the cover of every magazine they try to sell you in the checkout line at the grocery store. There’s always a new meme floating around on the socials.

I ask because it feels like we have reached that point in the Pete Alonso negotiations.

One day, the Mets have moved on. Logic dictates they probably haven’t. The next day, the owner voices his frustration with the negotiation process. Moments after that we are reading what the agent thinks. And on and on it goes.

The latest? Within 48 hours of providing a “brutally honest” rebuttal to Alonso-wanting fans at Amazin’ Day, Steve Cohen was reportedly back in conversation with Alonso’s camp. This comes as the homegrown star is supposedly having a hard time finding a better offer than the 3-year, $68-70 million deal he turned down from the Mets.

At this rate, congress is going to pass a reconciliation bill before Alonso puts ink to paper.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

---

⏭️ NEXT? If the Mets ultimately move on from Alonso, they intend to look for bullpen help and infield depth, according to The Athletic.

• Other options: The Mets have also reportedly discussed both Spencer Torkelson and Ryan Mountcastle as trade options to fill a vacancy at first base, per Pat Ragazzo.

🔝 PROSPECTS: The Mets have four players included on Kiley McDaniel’s latest Top 100 MLB Prospect list for 2025: Jett Williams (34), Brandon Sproat (62), Ronny Mauricio (67), and Drew Gilbert (84).

• Gilbert: It’s nice to see Gilbert’s name on the list, after he has fallen in other rankings. McDaniel notes, “I'm largely expecting him to come into 2025 healthy and back to his 2023 self (plus runner, above-average hitter, 15-ish homers), with an MLB debut in the second half, but I'll watch the early returns carefully.”

• Kumar Rocker (remember him?) ranks 35th.

---

📈 Beating the Projections

When it’s cold enough outside to see your breath, it’s prime season for projection systems. Who will breakout next season? Who will take a step back? How will players fit on new teams, in new positions?

To answer these questions, we often refer to projection systems like ZiPS or Steamer. Since these models guide our thinking heading into a new season, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at how the Mets performed relative to their preseason projections last season, starting with the hitters.