Good Morning,
Today there is really one story on the minds of Mets fans, so let’s start by catching you up on the latest Trevor Bauer news.
🍎 As we said on Twitter last night (and that’s where we all were last night (right?), refreshing our timelines in-between bites at dinner, while watching TV, and a few more times before bed), the Trevor Bauer news is unfolding similar to his pitching:
One minute you think it’s legit: After Jon Morosi tweeted the Mets were the current favorites to sign Bauer, Bob Nightengale reported a deal is done—I mean, he couldn’t get another one wrong, could he?
Then you’re convinced that it’s not: shortly after Nightengale’s report, several reporters refuted a deal was done and Bauer’s agent tweeted out the following:
Yeah…
And then maybe it is: putting Nightengale’s report aside, Ed Coleman reported earlier in the evening on WFAN that the Mets were “close” to signing Bauer with a three-year offer worth $90 million, and Jon Heyman added that the offer was closer to $100 million and that Francisco Lindor had signed off on Bauer being a good teammate. The chase appears to be down to the Mets or Dodgers. There’s a lot of smoke!
But, in the end, you’re still not really sure what to believe.
💰 CONTRACT STRUCTURE: Piecing together the reporting, it appears the Mets are offering Bauer a 3-year deal worth $90-$100 million, with an opt out after the first year. Mark Feinsand reports the Dodgers are offering something shorter than that with a higher AAV. Jim Bowden reports the AAV could be closer to $32MM, and the Dodgers are still in play, but “barely.” And Jon Morosi reports this morning the Mets have the highest offer and it’s unclear if the Dodgers plan to restructure theirs as a result.
Bauer has been outspoken in wanting to become the highest paid pitcher in the sport (at least from an annual salary basis), which would require him to earn at least $36 million to match Gerrit Cole.
⏰ TIMING: Jon Heyman reported on Thursday afternoon that a resolution to the Bauer madness would likely come in the next 24 hours, meaning by the end of today. The NY Daily News also reports a decision could come by Friday.
📝 WHY NOT A BALLOON DEAL: While it appears any deal for Bauer will be for at least three seasons with an opt-out after the first year, Joel Sherman of the NY Post offers an interesting approach in his latest column: “if the Mets are determined to sign Bauer, then the offer should be one year, $40 million. If Bauer says yes, that would allow the Mets to land one of the most talented pitchers in the world, and if it all goes horribly wrong, they are done after one season.”
In Other News…
🌴 SIGN OF SPRING: The Mets’ equipment truck is packed and on its way to Florida:
🔝 PROSPECT: MLB Pipeline listed outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong as the top non-100 prospect in the Mets’ system: “He also can swing the bat, showing the potential to hit for average and possibly some power, too, as he grows into his ultra-athletic and projectable frame.”
🗣 CALLAWAY: Indians president Chris Antonetti said Thursday his team didn’t know anything about Mickey Callaway’s aggressive behavior toward female reporters, nor did Cleveland receive any formal inquiries from the Mets after the fact.
🎙 ANNOUNCING: The Reds have hired former Mets announcer John Sadak to replace Thom Brennaman (who was pulled from the air after uttering inappropriate remarks) as their new play-by-play voice.
📮FRIDAY MAILBAG
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
As we await word on the Bauer news (potentially as soon as today), we are going to try something new on this Friday morning, and answer a question from our readers. This one is from Ray Marcano:
Who is the most indispensable Mets player in 2021 — the player the Mets would have the hardest time replacing, and why?
This is a great question, Ray. The obvious name that jumps out at you first is Jacob deGrom. How do you replace one of the best pitchers in all of baseball? That said, the Mets have tried their darn’dest over the past several years to neutralize what should be the greatest advantage in baseball: sending a starting pitcher to the mound who is better than anyone else.
Over the past two seasons, only Sonny Gray has had more wins lost for him (eight). And while deGrom finally got his fair share of run support last season (8th highest in baseball), we have all sat through too many games when the Cy Young Award winner pitched masterfully only to look up at the scoreboard and see he was losing 1-0. In fact, the Mets have lost seven times in games when deGrom started, pitched at least 6 innings, and didn’t allow an earned run—that is the second most of any pitcher in baseball since 2014 (I was surprised to find Julio Teheran and Jeff Samardzija had more with eight).
While catching the baseball might still be a problem, the Mets finally have an offense that should pick up on their success from last season in generating run support for deGrom. This will turn more of his starts into automatic wins.
You asked which player the Mets would have the hardest time replacing, so could you argue that signing Trevor Bauer would be the hypothetical way of doing that? I suppose, if you trust the right sample of data. He did beat out deGrom in Cy Young voting last season, and rightfully so.
However, adding Bauer in some ways makes deGrom even more indispensable as the two together could form the top of a rotation that pitches the Mets to a World Series title (again, assuming Bauer is the one we saw in 2020 and not the one chucking baseballs over the outfield wall from 2019).
If you asked which player has the potential to be the most indispensable, I will give you a surprising name, and that is Edwin Díaz. If he turns into the reliever he was in Seattle (and the one we saw most of last season), that could be the difference maker from this Mets team and past ones who have been similarly equipped to compete for a playoff spot but fell short due to bullpen issues.
Other options? We recently saw Nolan Arenado get traded from Colorado for a song. The Mets were able to secure one of the game’s brightest stars in Francisco Lindor without giving up any top prospects, while also acquiring a legitimate starter in Carlos Carrasco. If the Mets needed to replace one of their bats, as long as they are willing to foot the bill, it seems like they could find a solution.
Acquiring a starter whose ERA relative to the rest of the league is the third best in the Wild Card Era (since 1995) is not as easy to do. Just look at how much it might cost to secure Bauer who has had an ERA over four runs in five of the seven full seasons he has pitched.
⚾️ The Angels acquired outfielder Dexter Fowler and $12.75MM in cash to offset his salary from the Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash considerations.
⚾️ The Giants acquired outfielder LaMonte Wade Jr. from the Twins for right-hander Shaun Anderson.
⚾️ Free agent catcher Jonathan Lucroy has an agreement with the Chicago White Sox, per Robert Murray.
⚾️ While the Dodgers are still considered the favorites, Milwaukee is still in play for free agent third baseman Justin Turner, per Robert Murray.
⚾️ The Cardinals have interest in free agent starter Jake Odorizzi, per Derrick S. Goold.
🔗 Examining the Mets’ long-term payroll, and what it means for this offseason, by Tim Britton, The Athletic: “If Lindor and Conforto do return, New York’s top priority [in 2022] would be center field (if that’s not filled before then) and replacing Stroman and Syndergaard in the rotation. Those two are in line to be right at the top of the free-agent market for starters, and bringing back either one of them would likely push the Mets over the threshold.”
🔗 Mark Simon spoke with former Met Bobby Jones to write a SABR biography on him: “My wife walked by [Mets manager] Bobby [Valentine] in the tunnel after Game Three [of the NLDS] and said, ‘If you give my husband the ball, he’ll have the game of his life,’” Jones told Simon. “Shortly thereafter, he [Valentine] said ‘You’ve got the ball.’ And he told Mike Hampton he wanted him to fly to San Francisco (in case of Game Five). Mike said ‘No, I’m staying here to celebrate.’”
🔗 Jayson Stark measures the impact of the Mets adding Francisco Lindor: “Before the 60-game 2020 season got in the way, Lindor had spun off four seasons in a row worth at least 5.0 WAR…Jeter, by the way, never had more than three consecutive five-win seasons. So is it possible that even New York has never seen anything like the new shortstop in town? I think it is.”
Thanks for reading! Follow us on Twitter for updates until the next newsletter.
And if there’s big Bauer news involving the Mets, we’ll e-mail you with in-depth analysis in real time.
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