Bader off in Queens

Morning Dose: Friday, January 5

☕️ Good Morning:

Harrison Bader is the newest Met.

Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

Happening now: Continuing to move the needle ever so slightly, the Mets signed glove-first center fielder Harrison Bader to a one-year, $10.5 million deal.

The former Cardinal, who is still considered one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, struggled to find his swing last season while battling through injuries, spending a short stint with the Reds after being waived by the Yankees.

• What this means: David Stearns has emphasized the need to improve run prevention; while he still has work to do on the pitching side, he is taking care of business on defense. With Bader, he adds an elite center fielder to an outfield that also recently added the steady hand and wheels of Tyrone Taylor. And don’t forget the addition of infielder Joey Wendle, who is also known for his glove work.

• Timing: Perhaps if Ronny Mauricio was healthy, the Mets don’t make this deal. They already have a depth outfielder in Tyrone Taylor and they would have needed to find a place for Mauricio to play, which would have pushed Jeff McNeil into a corner outfield role more often.

• Roster impact: We talked ad nauseam about the lack of versatility on the Mets’ roster last season with Daniel Vogelbach sucking up a roster spot, and Darin Ruf doing the same in 2022. Stearns is taking a very different approach from his predecessor, prioritizing defense and speed over swing-at-the-cost-of-everything-else power.

• Risk: A one-year deal doesn’t offer a lot of risk, but Bader needs to prove he can hit right-handed pitching to warrant regular playing time. Most importantly, he needs to stay healthy.

Roster preview: It’s only January 5th, we are a long way from Opening Day. But as the roster currently sits, you would have to slot Bader next to Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte as the regular starting outfielders.

• Nimmo: The Mets don’t want to tell you that Nimmo is moving off center field, especially after signing a contract last winter based on his ability to play center, but if Harrison Bader hits well enough, expect to see Nimmo in left more often than not.

• Depth: That leaves Taylor as the fourth outfielder and puts DJ Stewart in a DH role that could turn into a left-handed platoon / pinch-hitter / occasional outfielder when they desperately need offense role if the team ultimately signs a more stable DH.

• Time will tell: All of that said, given the injury histories of Nimmo, Marte and Bader, the lineup might ultimately become a simple product of who is healthy at the time.

• What’s next: Prioritizing defense in the outfield, you wonder if Stearns might be more aggressive in chasing a heavier bat for the DH/3B positions.

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In talking about Harrison Bader, you have to start with his defense. Yeah, he’s pretty good manning center field. Exactly how good, you ask? How about the best over the past five years good:

Most Outs Above Average by Center Fielders since 2018, via Baseball Savant

• Still elite: The 29-year-old showed no signs of slowing down in the outfield last season, flashing his glove for the 7th-most OAAs among center fielders. His sprint speed remains steady in the 85th percentile. Meanwhile, his arm strength ranked in the 91st percentile.

• Familiar play: There’s a component to Bader’s game that will remind Mets fans of Lenny Dykstra. He plays hard, throws his body around and gives off a similar look.

It’s a treat watching the Bronxville native chase down fly balls in the outfield.

• Whether he is coming in on the ball:

• Moving to his side:

• Or running back:

He catches everything that goes his way.

Attacking lefties: The Mets ranked 21st in wRC+ against left-handed pitching last year. This is another area where Bader’s presence in the lineup should help. He had an OPS of .936 against southpaws last season in limited at bats (87), but has proven effective against lefties throughout his career with a .823 OPS.

• Those numbers are offset by a career .668 OPS against righties — he had an abysmal .263 slugging percentage against them last year.

Health: The biggest concern with Bader is his health. He has played in over 100 games only once over the past three seasons, missing time for a variety of ailments, including a right rib hairline fracture, right foot plantar fasciitis, a left oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and a right groin strain.

A new-look outfield: The Mets’ outfield ranked 11th as a team in WAR last season. They would have ranked a lot higher had they been a better defensive group. If Nimmo hits and Marte returns closer to form, the 2024 outfield unit has the chance to be a strength of this ballclub.

• Short on pitching, Stearns is building a safety net on defense. The combination of Nimmo and Bader protects over 2/3 of the outfield grass, with Taylor able to help them out, and Marte having the ability to flash his arm strength in right field.

• Interestingly, the Mets don’t have a ton of fly-ball pitchers. Luis Severino is the only projected starter with a fly-ball rate above league average. Although, there is a certain free agent — ahem Shota Imanaga — who would greatly benefit from teammates who can catch fly balls.

Payroll Impact: The Bader signing pushes the Mets’ projected luxury tax payroll above the fourth and highest tax threshold. That means every additional dollar spent is taxed at 110%.

• I currently project the Mets’ luxury tax payroll to be $306.1 million, which would carry a tax charge of $51.4 million.

• Find detailed luxury tax information here.

🔻 Bottom Line: One-year deals are never bad deals since they carry no long-term risk. If Bader can find the swing that once turned him into a postseason hero for the Yankees, he could turn into one of the better signings of the offseason. Health is rarely kind to the Mets: Starling Marte is playing winter ball, but who knows how he will look once the season begins; we know Nimmo can be an injury waiting to happen. Bader, while a health question mark himself, gives the Amazins another hand in the outfield, and one that should help them keep runs off the board.

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🔹 The Mets have indicated to teams they are open to trading Omar Narváez, per Mike Puma.

• The veteran catcher is looking to have it all, recently exercising a $7 million player option worth more than any one-year deal he would have fetched on the open market, while hoping for a trade that gives him more playing time.

• The Mets still have Tomás Nido in the minor leagues — he was removed from the 40-man roster last June. They also recently signed Tyler Heineman and Cooper Hummel for catching depth, both of whom are on the 40-man roster.

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◾️ The Atlanta Braves and Chris Sale agreed on a two-year, $38 million contract extension that replaces his existing deferred contract that he originally had signed with the Red Sox.

◾️ Trevor Bauer admits he was “reckless” and “made a lot of mistakes along the way” as he tries to repair his image in search of a second chance in the majors.

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🔗 Midterm MLB offseason grades for all 30 teams, by Jim Bowden, The Athletic ($): “The Mets couldn’t land Yoshinobu Yamamoto despite making him the highest offer, which the Dodgers eventually matched. They took a gamble on the often-injured Severino and the declining Wendle and besides that, added depth. I like their trade with the Brewers that brought back starting pitching and outfield depth for a relatively small price. The acquisitions of both Taylor and Bader reflect the philosophy of Stearns, who will emphasize improved outfield defense and athleticism as he revamps the roster.”

And we leave you with Pete Alonso’s reaction to the Bader signing…

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