The Metropolitan: Did the Mets whiff on Nolan Arenado?
And the latest news from over the weekend
Good Morning,
Today we will talk about the big Nolan Arenado trade and Daniel Murphy, but we start with the day’s news. And don’t forget to check out the Mets Fix website.
⏰ Catch me up on the Steve Cohen Twitter drama…
🐦 TWITTER: Mets owner Steve Cohen paused his Twitter account after coming under attack for his involvement in the GameStop stock craze that has gripped the nation over the past week.
THREATS: Cohen decided to “take a break for now” after he says his family received personal threats on the social media app.
⚾️ IMPACT: Ken Davidoff of the NY Post: “Cohen shares a trait with some people who have found themselves on the wrong end of a Twitter battle with Bauer, courtesy of his followers. Will this development give Cohen further pause over committing $100 million-plus to someone [Trevor Bauer] who has contributed to Twitter’s toxic culture?”
LENNY DYKSTRA: “He should have never gotten on Twitter in the first place, it was just a matter of time until the vultures started circling,” the former Met told the NY Post over the weekend.
STATEMENT: Despite reports that Cohen’s Point72 hedge fund has lost more than 10 percent since the start of the year (in large part due to his investment in the fund that heavily shorted GameStop), Cohen released the following statement in which he assures Mets fans that none of this will impact his spending on the team.
“I’ve really enjoyed the back and forth with Mets fans on Twitter which was unfortunately overtaken this week by misinformation unrelated to the Mets that led to our family getting personal threats. So I’m going to take a break for now. We have other ways to listen to your suggestions and remain committed to doing that. I love our team, this community, and our fans, who are the best in baseball. Bottom line is that this week’s events in no way affect our resources and drive to put a championship team on the field.”
Will the season start on time?
If you’re reading this while sipping your morning coffee and peeking at the snow outside, baseball’s Groundhog Day can’t come soon enough. Early this week, we should find out whether the warm weather sport will come early or late this year.
THE LATEST: MLB has presented the players with an offer to start the season one month late, resulting in a 154-game schedule (with full 162-game pay) and expanded playoffs. As part of the proposal, the designated hitter would return to the National League.
WHAT THIS MEANS: If the latest proposal by MLB scares the players back into their collective bargaining foxholes, the season will probably start on time. As much as you will read in the next few days about the two sides arguing over the structure of the season, an agreement is only needed to modify the current schedule. If no new agreement is reached (which seems likely), the season will start on time, players will report to spring training in a few weeks, and a 162-game schedule will be played, without a DH in the National League, and with the pre-COVID playoff format.
If the two sides come to a compromise, it’s possible expanded playoffs will return, with the designated hitter in the National League, and the start of Spring Training pushed to March 22 and Opening Day rescheduled to around April 28.
WHY THE FIGHT: Since the CBA is set to expire after this season, the players do not want to give up any bargaining power ahead of what will surely be a bitter fight. MLB can only expand the playoffs with the players’ consent.
The financial windfall resulting from added TV revenue is not guaranteed to flow to the players in an equitable manner. In fact, the players worry that with more playoff teams, the owners will have less incentive to spend in free agency since the marginal difference in winning 85 versus 90 games might not matter. While the DH in the National League adds more jobs, it’s a small concession for what the players believe would be a bigger win for the owners in gaining expanded playoffs.
As February brings snow, negotiations between the owners and players bring out the worst in pretty much everyone. Few seem to care about the bigger picture, as much as gaining every possible inch on the other side. For now, their inability to find compromise results in baseball returning on time, so I guess we have that.
🧓 by Jeffrey Bellone
Mets fans entered the offseason expecting their favorite team to be shopping along Fifth Avenue, a new owner giving them a blank check to purchase anything new and shiny that they desired—signing two of the premier free agents seemed like a legitimate possibility.
Sandy Alderson set an early tone that the organization didn’t want to reach into their shallow prospect pool to add talent, so it made sense to focus on players who they could acquire by simply spending money.
But as the market presented itself, it suddenly became clear that some of the best items would be found on the secondary market; adding a superstar via trade simply required the wherewithal to absorb a large contract, as if it was a free agent acquisition.
This is how the Mets ended up with Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco for two currently average middle infielders (one of whom is already being mentioned in trade rumors) and a few non-elite prospects.
And it is how the game’s best third baseman was traded over the weekend for basically nothing.
The Nolan Arenado trade also highlights how the gap between teams trying to win and teams trying to save money is perhaps as wide as ever. While some Mets fans might be disappointed in the team’s overall spending so far under Steve Cohen, they should be thanking their lucky stars that the Mets are one of a handful of teams who are actually trying to improve their roster this offseason.
In trading a player who has won 8 consecutive Gold Gloves and 4 Silver Slugger Awards, the Rockies didn’t ask for the Cardinals’ best prospect, or second best prospect, or even their 4th best prospect, they simply requested financial relief. Instead of trying to build a competitive team around a homegrown star, Colorado essentially said, Let’s offer $50 million to trade him to St. Louis and say that we did.
Which brings us to the question of whether the Mets missed out on this trade. From afar, there is no way of knowing how much Sandy Alderson and Zack Scott engaged in discussions with Colorado, other than the report we received late in the process that the Mets weren’t involved, via Joel Sherman.
While Arenado is two years older than Lindor and suffered a shoulder injury last season that impacted his power output, when you look at his contract structure and consider his pedigree, it’s hard not to wonder what could have been.
A quick overview of Arenado’s contract
Fans often confuse deferred salary with the amount charged against a team’s luxury tax. Whatever is deferred in salary changes the net present value of the deal, but that doesn’t impact the way the contract is calculated relative to the tax. The guaranteed money is almost always stretched evenly among the guaranteed seasons, no matter when the salary is actually earned.
While the details are still being negotiated for how Arenado’s contract will look after the trade, the fundamental changes will come in how his salary is deferred. But similar to the cash included in the Robinson Cano trade, if Colorado sends a reported $50 million to the Cardinals as part of the deal, it means St. Louis gets to reduce the star third baseman’s luxury tax AAV by as much as $8.3MM over the next six years.
Arenado is also gaining added flexibility from the trade. He will reportedly keep his no-trade clause and earn an extra opt-out in 2022, besides the one he already has in 2021. If he doesn’t opt-out, he will also earn an extra $15 million guaranteed in 2027.
What does this all mean?
The Mets reportedly maxed out their offer on George Springer at 5-years, $120 million, or in luxury tax dollars, at $24MM AAV.
Depending on the final parameters of the trade and whether Arenado plays at a superstar level to later opt out and earn a new contract, it’s possible the Mets could have had the perennial Gold Glover for 7-years, $164 million, or a luxury tax value of $24-27 million per season [remember this is different than the actual year-to-year salary commitment].
And even if Arenado eventually opts out, either in 2021 or 2022, the Mets would have still gained his value over those 1-2 seasons without giving up much to get it and paying a discounted luxury tax rate along the way. The timing could have fit perfectly in the window created from the Cano suspension and before, or only overlapping, the first year of expensive extensions for Lindor and Conforto (who both could end up earning more than Arenado).
You could argue paying $54.2 million (at a minimum) to two players who would stand within 30 feet of each other on the diamond is a lot. But we still don’t know if Mr. Cohen actually cares about the luxury tax, or what the tax will look like in a new CBA.
Steve Cohen’s purchase of the Mets was supposed to signify a new dissonance toward payroll restraint. Then Robinson Cano got suspended, less teams seem willing to spend money within the pandemic and ahead of the new CBA, and it seems like the opportunity to go big in 2021 is there for the taking. Adding Nolan Arenado would have been the move to take advantage of this situation. Instead, we will have to wait to see if Trevor Bauer becomes the next big signing.
Daniel Murphy retires
Mets postseason legend Daniel Murphy announced his retirement from baseball on Friday.
When I think of Murph, I think of growing up in the shadow of the Yankees and Red Sox and wanting to pull my hair out every time those two teams would find some seemingly random player (David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Aaron Boone, etc.) and turn them into an All-Star or October hero. That would never happen to the Mets, I always believed. Instead, the opposite would be true. Jason Bay. Justin Turner. Etc.
Daniel Murphy changed that narrative, at least for a few seasons (before he reminded us we are Mets fans and tortured us while playing for a division rival).
A player the Mets selected 394th overall in the 2006 MLB Draft became one of the toughest outs in baseball and turned into Babe freaking Ruth during the 2015 postseason run that brought the Mets within a mound visit (or two) of winning the World Series.
Murphy didn’t just hit 7 home runs — including one in six straight games — during that magical October; he bested some of the sport’s fiercest competitors, going deep on Clayton Kershaw (twice), NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta (who had allowed only 2 home runs over the previous four months), as well as Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and Fernando Rodney.
When the NLCS MVP left the Mets the following offseason, there were some questions whether the changes in his swing would continue to produce ridiculous results once pitchers had time to adjust. We all know what happened when he suited up for the Nationals.
Like with any break-up, the aftermath is never pretty. Confronting Murphy while he was batting .347 in the middle of the Nats’ lineup felt like running into your ex while wearing your Saturday sweatpants. But even though his time as a Silver Slugger in DC leaves a bit of a sour taste in the story of Daniel Murphy as a Met, we will always have that one romantic October.
⚾️ The Mets, Twins, Rays and White Sox are among the teams believed to have “some interest” in RHP Mike Foltynewicz after his workout in Atlanta on Friday, per Jon Heyman.
⚾️ The Cubs signed pitcher Trevor Williams (who the Mets had interest in under Jared Porter) to a one-year deal, per ESPN.
⚾️ Philadelphia has reached a two-year agreement with Didi Gregorius, per Jayson Stark.
⚾️ The Indians have agreed to a one-year, $8 million deal with free-agent outfielder Eddie Rosario, per Mark Feinsand.
⚾️ Free agent catcher Yadier Molina is expected to re-sign with the Cardinals, per Jon Morosi.
⚾️ Minnesota has revived contract talks with free agent Nelson Cruz and a one-year deal “is now on the table,” per The Athletic.
🔗 Just Missed List: Keith Law’s 2021 Top 100: Mets prospect Brett Baty: “The case for a 19-year-old high school position player revolves around his bat being so advanced that he could get to Double A by his age-21 season…Baty might still be a star, but the road for him to get there is tougher now because of the lost year [due to the pandemic].”
🔗 Carlos Cortes Continues to Impress in Australian Baseball League, by Alexis Farinacci, MetsMerized Online: “New York Mets prospect, Carlos Cortes continues to shine in the Australian Baseball League with the Sydney Blue Sox. Cortes, who was hitting .345 entering game one against the Canberra Cavalry, continued to hit the ball wall, going two for three, with a monster home run.”
🔗 Mets one of the best bets to win the division, by Jason Weingarten, NY Post: The betting markets seem to like the Mets in the NL East [along with FanGraphs’ projections].
Thanks for reading! Follow us on Twitter for updates until tomorrow’s newsletter.
And please check out our newsletter about the Knicks, too.
another brillant alderson move - letting Murphy walk ! As long as he is pulling the strings the Mets will never win a championship