ANALYSIS: Mets trade for Chris Bassitt
New York bolsters their rotation
Good Morning,
The Mets needed pitching depth, and on Saturday they got it in a big way, acquiring one of the most underrated starters in baseball, Chris Bassitt, in exchange for pitching prospects J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller.
Bassitt is coming off his strongest season as a pro in which he went 12-4 with a 3.15 ERA and perfected his command for a career best strikeout-to-walk ratio. He suffered a facial fracture when he was hit by a line drive in a scary moment last August, but made his way back to the mound several weeks later. This is his final season of arbitration before he is eligible to become a free agent.
Ya Gotta Believe might need to be replaced with Ya Gotta Go For It as the team slogan for the Mets this season. After spending over $200 million to add three thirty-somethings and a 37-year-old Ace before the lockout, new GM Billy Eppler made his first splash in the trade market by acquiring another 33-year-old in Bassitt, who is entering his walk year and joins a rotation that already includes includes three potential 2023 free agents (deGrom, Carrasco and Walker).
Meanwhile, between a previous GM who shall not be named and Sandy Alderson’s front office crew under Cohen, by dealing Ginn, the Mets have now traded eight of their 14 first or second round picks since 2016, and all but one pick (Eric Ozre) from the 2020 draft class.
This is not to suggest the Mets are running toward a cliff, quite the opposite, they are sprinting toward the Promised Land. They are getting older, but they are also getting a hell of a lot better, and with a rotation that now boasts another frontline starter, they are at least fragile World Series contenders heading into the 2022 season (yes, you read that right).
Of course, the cliff will eventually come if the farm system continues to be depleted, but with Steve Cohen’s resources, the Mets can parachute to safety in ways other clubs can’t. Given an expanded postseason field and a top of the rotation that is made for October, Cohen has clearly decided the time to win is now.
Believe it or not, there’s plenty of other news to talk about, which we will do later. But first, let’s dive a little deeper into this trade.
We have only recently started to understand how a pitcher like Chris Bassitt can be so effective, thanks to the evolution of optical tracking systems like Hawk-Eye.
On the surface, he throws a collection of uninspiring fastballs — a sinker, a four-seamer, and a cutter — along with a slider that he introduced last season as a put-away pitch to righties, and a change-up to keep lefties off balance.
What’s intriguing is his consistency in limiting hard contact. None of his pitches are particularly impressive when viewed in isolation. But nobody can square the bat up off this guy, as evidenced by a hard-hit rate that was one of the lowest in the league last season.
What’s particularly intriguing is how effective his four-seamer is at generating whiffs and deadening contact despite being thrown at a pedestrian 93 MPH. Bassitt isn’t one of these guys who cocks back and throws the ball past you like a Jacob deGrom. The Ohio native relies on deception, pulling pigeons out of his hat when the crowd is expecting a rabbit.
What does that even mean? I’m glad you asked. Traditionally, pitchers try to optimize the backspin on their four-seam fastball in order to generate “rise.” They want the pitch to land higher than it appears so hitters swing under it and miss. This is partly what led to the explosion of sticky stuff in baseball: hurlers looked for ways they could optimize their grip to maximize spin efficiency.
Chris Bassitt does the opposite. He limits the amount of spin he puts on his four-seamer, throwing it with some gyro, which reduces its ride, but proves mysterious to opposing hitters when properly located and mixed with the rest of his deep repertoire. This is reflected best by his four-seamer’s swinging strike rate, which somehow ranks near the top of the league.
That was a 92 MPH fastball he blew past Nate Lowe, throwing it letter high like he’s Gerrit Cole, except without all the velocity and spin-based movement. But don’t let the whiffs fool you (see what I did there?), while Bassitt surprises hitters with his four-seamer, overall, he is a pitcher who relies on command to get ahead in counts and to avoid barrels.
Which brings us to his most-used pitch, his sinker. Similar to what Mets fans saw from Taijuan Walker last season, Bassitt is a master at generating called strikes by precisely commanding his two-seamer as an offset to the rest of his pitch mix. I will save the detailed conversation about seam-shifted wake for another day, but Bassitt is a pitcher who benefits from aerodynamics to create extra movement.
Entering last season with a somewhat undefined role (Oakland experimented with him out of the bullpen), he ultimately evolved into the team’s Ace, turning what he describes as “an extreme anxiety to failure” into productive energy.
One could point to his home/road splits as a reason for some concern. His ERA was over a run higher on the road (3.71 vs 2.44) than when he pitched in the spacious Oakland Coliseum last season—those numbers were even more extreme in 2020 (0.72 ERA at home; 4.56 ERA on the road). You can see in the spray charts below how there are a few outs (colored in gray) made along the extended foul territory in the Coliseum’s outfield that might have reached the stands at Citi Field. But moving from Oakland to Queens is one of the safer ballpark transitions for a pitcher who is used to friendly dimensions.
Off the mound, Bassitt has earned a reputation as a hard worker and leader in the clubhouse. While he admittedly pushed back against an Oakland front office that played loose with his role, he credits it as a learning experience and has proven he can adapt to his circumstances to make the best out of them.
⏎ WHAT DID THEY GIVE UP?
Most fans know about right-hander J.T. Ginn by now. His name has floated toward the top of the team’s prospect rankings since the Mets went above slot to select him in the 2020 draft. After missing his final college season due to elbow surgery, he returned to the mound in 2021, pitching over 90 innings between low- and high-A ball.
Ginn might have been one of the Mets’ best pitching prospects, but that doesn’t mean he is the type of prospect you can’t trade in the right deal. He projects to be a middle-of-the-rotation type. We’ve seen teams offer more pedigree for starters at the trade deadline who they only get for a few months. While Bassitt will be a free agent next winter, the Amazins get his services for an entire season.
Fans are probably less familiar with Adam Oller, who was added to the 40-man roster in November to keep him from qualifying for minor league free agency. The 6-foot-4 right-hander was the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year in 2021 after striking out 138 batters in 120 innings of work. You will most likely see him in Oakland’s rotation this season.
Plenty has been said about the lack of depth in the Mets system, which is only exacerbated by this move, but the organization’s ability to turn a Rule 5 pick for a $24,000 selection fee, and who was nearly out of baseball a few seasons ago, into a secondary trade chip is noteworthy.
Ideally, the Mets would use their financial might to add talent instead of paying in prospects, but if they continue to develop players like Oller, they can turn a small pile of chips into a bigger one without going back to the teller.
💰 WHAT ABOUT PAYROLL?
Who cares, right?! I mean, seriously. This is why having Steve Cohen as owner of the Mets changes everything. We’re only a few days past the conclusion of a lockout that kept the sport dark for 99 days so the game’s resident lords could figure out a way to keep Uncle Stevie from overspending on his baseball team, and here are the Mets shoveling another pile of cash onto an already bloated payroll.
The addition of Bassitt, who is projected to make $8.8 million in arbitration, brings the Mets’ luxury tax payroll up to around $280 million. Competitive teams will always add payroll during the season through roster churn and trades, so including a $10 million buffer, the Mets are on the cusp of the new “Steve Cohen Tax” threshold that the media has become obsessed about.
However, while the new tax rate above $290 million (80%) would even make Bernie Sanders blush, overall, Cohen’s tax liability is smaller under the new CBA than it would have been using last year’s thresholds.
As I said last week, Cohen’s tax bill is $11 million cheaper on a $300 million payroll this season than it would have been last year. While Cohen is taxed more for going over $290 million, he is taxed less for all of his spending under that amount since the thresholds where each tax rate kicks in are higher in the new agreement.
Don’t let the trade distract you from the delayed start of Spring Training. Most players have already reported to camp, but Sunday marks the official reporting day.
🍎 GAME ON: Max Scherzer threw his first bullpen session as a New York Met (how good does that sound?) yesterday. He threw 45 pitches, a key number to watch as we learn how stretched out everyone is after the lockout, and he left pitching coach Jeremy Hefner impressed:
“He is one of the best pitchers of all time, but considering what he has gone through in the last two weeks with the labor situation, he was so dialed in,” Hefner told reporters about Scherzer. “He knew exactly what he wanted to do. It is how he thinks about his process and how he thinks about his routine and his bullpen. It didn’t change because he’s in a different uniform or because he has a new pitching coach or because he had a crazy last couple of weeks or he didn’t have a pitching coach to talk to for two months. He is similar to Jake [deGrom] in that regard. These guys know what they need to do to get major league hitters out at a very, very high level.”
🍾 CELEBRATE: When asked how he celebrated being done with the CBA negotiations, Scherzer quipped, “I drank a lot.”
💵 EXTENSION TALKS: Brandon Nimmo is one of several arbitration-eligible Mets who will become a free agent after this season. He told reporters he is “definitely open” to discussing a contract extension this spring, adding, “this is all I’ve known, is being a New York Met, so I’m definitely open to it, but they haven’t approached me on it yet.”
STEVE’s TAX: Nimmo acted as the team’s union rep during CBA negotiations. The Mets were one of four teams to vote against the eventual agreement. Nimmo explained how the added tax layer impacted his view on the deal, “Obviously being underneath Steve, I am not going to lie and say I was all for that. I definitely didn’t want to limit him from spending the money that he wants to spend the way he wants, but in the deal-making process you have got to concede some things and our majority felt like that was the right decision.”
🗣 NOT DONE: The Hot Stove is still burning for the Mets, with Michael Mayer reporting they would like to “add a relief arm or two with Collin McHugh, Adam Ottavino, and Andrew Chafin on their radar.” Jon Heyman says Brad Hand is also a possibility.
◾️ Former Met Jeurys Familia signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Phillies.
◾️ Toronto continues to beef up their pitching staff, inking Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $36 million deal. He is someone the Mets had been linked to throughout the offseason.
◾️ The Nationals signed reliever Steve Cishek to a one-year deal.
◾️ After signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to monster deals before the lockout, the Texas Rangers have moved on from shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, dealing him to Minnesota for catcher Mitch Garver.
◾️ The White Sox signed two-time All Star Josh Harrison.
🔗 How much Mets’ Steve Cohen will spend among intriguing MLB questions, by Joel Sherman, NY Post: “If you don’t recognize this obsession within the game, you were probably (smartly) ignoring baseball’s labor negotiations. Cohen’s fellow owners created a fourth luxury-tax super level motivated by a desire to try to erect some kind of stop sign — or at least a yield — on the $15 Billion Man. Will that work?”
🔗 In Chris Bassitt, the Mets find the final piece to a rotation puzzle, by Tim Britton, The Athletic ($): “Of course, New York already has Nos. 1 and 3 on that list with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. After late November’s addition of Scherzer, the Mets needed a final piece to join those two, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker to feel set with their rotation. Bassitt, a free agent at season’s end, fits what they were looking for, especially once the free-agent market grew limited. New York missed out on Kevin Gausman and Steven Matz just before the lockout. Carlos Rodón and Yusei Kikuchi signed in the past two days.”
🔗 Mets are getting 'gamer' in Chris Bassitt: 'He gets the most out of his abilities', by John Harper, SNY: “He’s got a reputation as a gamer,” a scout told Harper. “He gets the most out of his abilities. They loved him on that team. He’ll fit right in with a guy like Scherzer, who’s all about work ethic and going hard.”
🔗 Scherzer’s Message as Camp Opens: ‘It’s Over. Let’s Just Play Baseball,’ by James Wagner, New York Times: “Max Scherzer was a vocal leader during the lockout, but now he is focused on getting ready for the season. He’ll have help after his team traded for another All-Star pitcher.”
And we leave you with Max Scherzer discussing whether he cares who gets the ball on Opening Day…
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Really like the trade. As noted; having an owner who will spend all the money helps throughout the organization. As does having 5 high picks this summer (assuming Conforto signs elsewhere). They’ll be aggressive internationally too. They needed to round out the rotation and he was definitely one of the best available options.
Remember when we were apparently on the cusp of making a Jones Day associate who had been out of baseball for 4 years as our GM? That was a weird time; things have certainly taken off since then.
Great explanation of Bassitt’s pitching. I’ve never seen him play before. Very excited to have another proven starter. Do you have any insight into what went wrong with Walker and Carrasco last year? Can they give us some consistent innings this year? I’d really like to see our starters go deeper into games this year instead of relying on so many relievers every night. Any chance they’ll use a 6 man rotation to help load manage instead of pulling effective guys out based on pitch count and “ups”. Peterson as a lefty would be perfect.