An important week

Morning Dose: Monday, January 13

☀️ Good Morning:

This could be an important week.

After waiting and waiting… and waiting, we could finally reach a conclusion in the Pete Alonso negotiations, and we will certainly find out where Roki Sasaki will start his major-league career between the opening of the 2025 international signing period (this Wednesday, January 15) and the closing of his negotiation window (January 23).

Tracking news in the offseason is an interesting exercise; a lot of it is based on conjecture, and after enough rumors prove false, it is easy to sweep it all aside in patience for the actual baseball season to return.

Unlike watching a playoff game, during which you are hanging on every pitch, watching through squinted eyes whether a reliever you never liked can throw a strike in a key spot, knowing that pitch will have to leave their hand according to the pitch clock, we don’t know when we will learn the fate of some of our favorite free agents.

So we wait.

Maybe this week we will be rewarded.

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

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🇯🇵 Sasaki Decides

The biggest game-changer for the Mets this offseason is obviously Juan Soto, but don’t underestimate the importance of 23-year-old Roki Sasaki, whether he signs with the Mets or not.

Competition: The competition to secure the Japanese phenom has intensified as we get closer to his signing window. The Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Cubs, Giants and Rangers all remain in the hunt, along with the Mets. Although, it seems like a two-team race between the Dodgers and Padres.

Bonus Pools: The Mets, Dodgers and Yankees, three clubs already working with relatively smaller bonus pool amounts due to their market size, have also signed qualifying free agents as competitive tax payers, reducing their international bonus pools even more. To create more space for Sasaki, they can acquire up to 60% additional allotment in trades, or renege on deals already in place.

The Athletic writes this morning:

“The wait [for Sasaki] is causing clubs to maneuver in atypical ways so close to signing day, either by delaying commitments with other prospects, completely reneging on big-money agreements or weighing trades involving international cash.

The Padres informed some players who were expected to be part of their upcoming signing class that they were free to seek other deals, league sources said. The Dodgers have told players to consider signing as part of next year’s class if the team lands Sasaki and can’t acquire enough international bonus pool money via trade to honor their handshake agreements, league sources said. (The sources said the Padres have had similar conversations with prospects about potentially waiting until 2026.)

This has not stopped turnover within Los Angeles’ signing class. Dominican shortstop prospect Darell Morel was set to sign with the Dodgers once the 2025 international signing period opened this week, but decided Friday to instead sign with the Pirates for around $1.8 million, league sources confirmed. Baseball America first reported Morel’s change of plans, noting he is set to get twice the amount of money he would’ve received from Los Angeles.”

🔷 Why this matters so much: The 2025 Mets look like a competitive group on paper, but the difference between becoming a scrappy, wild-card team and a legitimate contender lies in the rotation. Adding Sasaki would not only give them a live arm this season, it would provide the organization with a starter that, frankly, they don’t have anywhere in their farm system — someone who can develop to be a top-of-the-rotation cog without needing to be paid a risky $200 million contract.