Alonso's Historic Start

Morning Dose: Wednesday, May 7

☀️ Good Morning:

It was probably good the Mets played late for East Coast watchers.

If you went to bed early, you didn’t miss much.

David Peterson looked like 2023 David Peterson, the offense threatened once in the third, and not again until the game was in hand in the ninth, and the Mets lost for the fifth time in seven games.

That magical start we knew would eventually run out of steam has in fact ended.

We are seeing a Mets team that looks a lot closer to the one we believed we were getting before the season start — one that is likely a playoff team, but not one that is going to run away with the division.

In fact, don’t look now, but a five-game lead over the Phillies has shrunk to two games.

🗣️ “It’s never going to be easy. That’s what makes the big leagues the big leagues,” manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters on Tuesday. “You’re going to go through stretches where you gotta find a way, you gotta fight. You’re going to go through some ups and downs. Overall, we’ve been right there on every game. The guys continue to compete. That’s what you want. Obviously, you want to come out on top — and we will. Nothing too concerning.”

☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!

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Box Score | Full Standings

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I know people have looked at this in different ways, but it’s time for us to dive into where Pete Alonso’s incredible start stacks up in the history books. (Naturally, I started writing this before last night’s game, and Alonso responded with a three strikeout night).

Entering play on Tuesday, Alonso ranked atop the National League in the following categories:

• bWAR (2.4)

• Batting Average (.349)

• On-Base Percentage (.469)

• Slugging Percentage (.674)

• OPS (1.143)

• Hits (43)

• Doubles (13)

He is doing it with an absurd 59.4% hard-hit rate and 20.8% barrel rate, resulting in every expected stat on his Baseball Savant page to be pushing near the 100th percentile.

via Baseball Savant

Steve Cohen lavished Juan Soto with the richest contract in the sport — Alonso has looked a lot like Soto, with a discerning eye that has turned him into one of the most discerning but menacing swingers in baseball.

One of the most impressive aspects of Alonso’s start has been his patience at the plate. He had three strikeouts on Tuesday, but before then had more walks than K’s to start the year.

Don’t confuse patience with a passive approach. Alonso is technically swinging more often than he did last season, but he is swinging more often at pitches in the strike zone, chasing a career-low 23.5% of the time.

His swing decisions are best captured by the graphic below.