☀️ Good Morning:
Can one swing change a season?
It has before:
As my friend Andrew Claudio reminded me while we recorded the Mets Therapy podcast last night, hope can be found by looking back to 2005.
That was the last time this franchise started 0-5. It was a “transition” year under a new manager with two young players trying to prove they belonged on a roster of veterans. That club ended up winning 83 games. Those young players were José Reyes and David Wright. The next year, they would win 97.
The 2005 season changed on an eighth-inning home run by Carlos Beltrán that turned a 1-0 deficit and potential 0-6 start into a Mets win.
Pete Alonso borrowed from that script on Thursday to save the 2024 Mets from a doubleheader sweep and sixth loss to start the year. You would think by accident the Mets would have staged a rally before the ninth inning of their sixth game. Instead, it almost felt like an accident they even registered a hit.
In front of a crowd that would have even looked sparse in Oakland, the Mets narrowly avoided their most embarrassing start in franchise history.
Who knows if yesterday afternoon’s win will ultimately matter. But on a day Brett Baty scored a winning run, José Buttó teased his potential, Francisco Álvarez continued to be a difficult out, and Pete Alonso acted as future Hall-of-Famer Carlos Beltrán, it’s hard not to think we might look back on this season as marking something bigger than the win total amount.
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⏎ Flipping the Script
I should really start by talking about José Buttó, because without his contributions Pete Alonso doesn’t have the chance to tie the game on one swing, but my heart won’t let me. Oh, and what a day for the hearts of Mets fans.
Alonso’s heroics: After blowing a 3-0 lead in the first game, and going hitless through seven innings of the evening cap, misery felt inevitable until Pete Alonso turned a ball near the dirt into a dramatic game-tying home run.
Golf’d it: Alonso’s bomb came on a pitch only 1.07 feet off the ground, which is tied for the lowest pitch a Mets player has homered off in the pitch-tracking era, per Sarah Langs. (Mark Vientos hit a similar low ball last September).
Historic: The home run also gave Alonso his 500th career RBI. He joined Ralph Kiner and Ryan Howard as the third player in major-league history to have 194 or more home runs and 500 RBIs in their first 690 games.
Walk-off: The home run also gave Tyrone Taylor a chance to be the hero. He responded by driving in the winning run three batters later after Brett Baty walked and moved to second on a Starling Marte bunt.
A day full of dread somehow ended in ecstasy.
🎧 Mets Therapy
In this Mets Therapy session, Andrew is joined by Jeffrey Bellone to react mere moments after a thrilling 9th inning comeback win over the Tigers, New York's first of the 2024 season and first under manager Carlos Mendoza. They also discuss a few big picture topics, specifically how sustainable the strong team ERA might be and how much of a regression uptick to expect from the offense soon before wrapping up with their expectations for JD Martinez & Julio Teheran when they eventually join the team.
🎬 Start ‘er up
I thought this team had a shaky rotation?! After two more stellar performances on Thursday, the Amazins have the fifth-best ERA in baseball (2.84).
Adrian Houser allowed only one run in his Mets debut, before getting the hook a little early for some’s liking (we will talk about some questionable Mendoza decisions below). The right-hander has now allowed only six earned runs over his past five starts dating back to last year.
José Buttó picked up where Houser left off in Game 2. The young righty kept the Mets in a game they couldn’t buy a hit by allowing only three hits to the Tigers, striking out six and letting only one run cross the plate.
Why not let him stay? Buttó was called up as the 27th-man on the roster for Thursday’s doubleheader. He must return to Syracuse until at least April 11 on optional assignment unless he replaces an injured player (Reed Garrett appeared to hurt himself at the end of the game despite completing three innings).
But why wouldn’t the Mets call him back up on April 12th? All Buttó has done has proven he is ready to join the rotation. He looked good in spring and has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last six starts dating back to last season.
What about Teheran? The Mets still need to make the Julio Teheran signing official. To do so, they will need to open a 40-man roster spot, perhaps moving Kodai Senga to the 60-day IL or deciding to DFA one of the extra bullpen arms who is out of options, such as Yohan Ramírez.
Keep in mind: Teheran tried to make the Orioles as a long reliever out of spring training. Once it became clear he wouldn’t, he opted out of his minor league deal to sign with the Mets.
Could he serve in that role in Queens? He could be a long reliever / bulk inning / spot starter in the bullpen, while Buttó is rewarded with a rotation spot until Senga returns. At this point, he deserves the spot even over a healthy Megill.
Team first: “I'm available for whatever the team needs,” Buttó told reporters on Thursday. “I’m not going to hold my head because of the circumstances. I'm going to be positive, I'm going to go out there to compete to the best of my ability & that's what I'm going to do. Whenever the team needs me, I'll be ready"
🤯 Mind of Mendoza
by Blake Zeff
It’s obviously way too soon to know what kind of manager Carlos Mendoza will be. But we did get some clues yesterday, particularly in the late stages of Game 1 of the doubleheader.
Heading into the bottom of the 10th, the game was knotted at three and the Mets found themselves with Francisco Álvarez on second, no one out, and batters 5–7 in the order coming up. Needing just to get the runner from second home to win, Mendoza made two notable calls.
❶ First, he opted to pinch-run Zack Short for Álvarez. This makes plenty of sense. Short is a faster runner, and if a ball falls in or a hard line drive is hit, that extra speed can make the difference in the game.
The reality for the Mets, though, was that Álvarez was not just the team's cleanup hitter but (to that point) he was the only productive offensive weapon on a squad that ended up going 14 innings without a hit, and 19 without a run.
This offensive futility meant there was a significant possibility the Mets would fail to score in that spot and the game would move on to further innings. If this were to happen — and of course, it did — removing Álvarez would mean robbing the team of its primary threat with the game on the line.
In a sense, this point would turn out to be academic as the replacement cleanup hitter Omar Narváez ended up on deck when the final out of the Tigers’ win was completed — but it was one batter away from potentially smacking Mendoza in the face.
❷ Next, in the bottom of the inning, Mendoza decided to have Brett Baty try to bunt the “ghost” runner over to third. There’s no question that when called on to do so, the young third baseman should have been able to competently execute the play.
But was it the right call? Hindsight is always 20-20, and there are definitely two sides to this argument.
As the Mets TV booth noted, Baty was not an experienced bunter, which the manager surely knew.
More than this, you could argue that giving away an out (via sacrifice bunt) is unwise for a team that is having so much trouble offensively and needs all the outs it can get.
If Mendoza doesn't trust his sturdy young third baseman to put the ball in play and potentially win the game in that spot, it's worth asking why he batted him 5th. Had the skipper not opted to bunt there, the club's 5-through-7 hitters (Baty, Starling Marte, and Jeff McNeil) would have had three shots to drive in the run.
On the other hand, the team's lack of production explains exactly why Mendoza was trying to steal a win in the 10th without any of his batters needing to get an actual hit.
Ultimately, the Mets would get the worst of all worlds: Baty gave himself up via the bunt, failed to execute, the team lost an out, and the runner on second never advanced.
By the book: While these calls didn't work as planned, you can see the logic Mendoza employed, as both were “by the book.” It will be interesting to see how often the first-time manager sticks to that book -- or chooses to deviate from it, deferring to touch, instinct and thinking several innings down the line -- during the rest of the season.
🎧 Mets Fix Podcast
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🥶 ICE COLD: Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor remain in epic funks at the top of the order. The two have one hit each and are a combined 2-for-45 with 12 strikeouts on the young season. Meanwhile, Jeff McNeil is 1-for-15 with only two walks and DJ Stewart remains hitless in 12 plate appearances with five strikeouts.
🗓️ RAMPING UP: J.D. Martinez could join a minor league affiliate as soon as today as he tries to quickly ramp up for the season. He is technically eligible to return from his agreed optional assignment on Sunday, but will probably need longer than that.
🏟️ EMPTY SEATS: The paid attendance for yesterday’s single-admission doubleheader was 15,020, making it the smallest non-COVID crowd since the stadium opened in 2009. And it looked as if only 1/3 of those fans were actually in the ballpark.
💨 WHIFF MASTER: Christian Scott struck out nine with an eye-popping 19 swing and misses in his Triple-A debut on Thursday. The right-hander allowed three runs over four innings (82 pitches) in Syracuse’s 5–4 win.
🗓️ UP NEXT: The Mets head on the road for the first time with a seven-game road trip that will take them to Cincinnati this weekend and to Atlanta for four games next week. José Quintana will make his second start of the season on Friday against flamethrower Hunter Greene. The Reds are off to a 4–2 start.
◾️ The Athletics formally announced they will leave Oakland after the 2024 season and play at least three years in a minor league ballpark in Sacramento.
◾️ As if an 0–8 start wasn’t bad enough, Marlins right-hander Eury Perez will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the 2024 season.
🔗 Mets’ minor-league preview: Players to watch, breakout candidates for an improving system, by Tim Britton, The Athletic ($): “The most anticipated New York Mets minor-league season in recent memory gets fully underway this weekend. While Triple-A Syracuse started last week, Double-A Binghamton, High-A Brooklyn and Low-A St. Lucie begin their seasons on Friday. For your sake, we can elide rather than elucidate some of the reasons why this is the most anticipated minor-league season in recent memory for the Mets, given that excitement about the future often runs inversely to excitement about the present.”
🔗 Mets’ Carlos Mendoza getting tested right away in first managerial stint, by Laura Albanese, Newsday ($): “Mendoza was a beloved bench coach for the Yankees — a career gamer who worked his way up the ranks, earning the respect of players and executives alike. He’s waited a long time for this shot — 15 years since he began his coaching career with the Staten Island Yankees — and though he was something of a surprise pick, it made sense. He understands what it means to coach in New York, and he’d be able to evolve around new president of baseball operations David Stearns.”
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I disagreed with the Marte bunt that preceded the Taylor walk-off hit. I don't like giving up an out, this offense can do that on its own, and Marte is a skilled enough hitter that at minimum, he could ground out to second.
A good way to set a record for a low attendance number is to have a day-time, unscheduled doubleheader in the first week of the season, during the school/work week, when the team is 0-4 and it's so cold that Gary was wearing a parka.