☀️ GOOD MORNING:
We’ve had a lot of starts and stops and twists and turns this season, but we haven’t had a game quite like last night yet. A good comeback story.
Trailing 5–2 after Clay Holmes tripped over the electric fence that is the fifth inning for him, the Mets had a 9.8% chance of winning the game based on historical score contexts. Those odds shrunk to 3.2% after newcomer Alex Carrillo served up a seventh-inning home run to make it 6–2 entering the eighth.
This game was over, until it wasn’t. They say, all you need is a bloop and a blast. The Mets got two of them in succession. A Brandon Nimmo single, before a Francisco Lindor blast. A Juan Soto single, before a Pete Alonso blast. Like a Sex in the City reboot, And Just Like That, it was a tie game.
The Amazins would secure the win with a smooth RBI single by Soto in the 10th. It was the first time the Mets have rallied from a deficit of at least four runs after the seventh inning since their wild seven-run comeback against the Phillies in May 2022.
🤯 It was a night of comebacks. Sean Manaea pitched in his final rehab game before joining the rotation on Sunday. And Patrick Bailey hit the first inside-the-park walk-off home run since 2016 to shock the Phillies. That means your New York Mets are back in first place.
☕️ Grab your coffee for your morning dose of Mets Fix!
🍎 A COMEBACK STORY
Through three innings, Clay Holmes is an ace. His 2.17 ERA over the first third of the game is second on the team to Kodai Senga. Holmes has a 2.13 strikeout-to-walk rate the first time he faces a lineup.
It’s the second or third time around, usually in the fifth or sixth inning, when things fall apart. The converted starter suddenly runs out of steam and quickly loses his way. His 2.17 ERA jumps to 4.78 after the third inning. Opponents are hitting 200 points better (.748 OPS vs .560 OPS) once he reaches 51 pitches in a game.
On Tuesday, Holmes survived the fifth, having started the game after a 45-minute rain delay, and using ground balls to keep the Orioles in check. In the sixth, after the Mets had taken a 2–1 lead, the seams started to break. He hit Jackson Holliday, before allowing back-to-back hits to Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson. Left to get out of his own mess with the bases loaded, he surrendered a two-run double and RBI-single to allow four runs to score before finally receiving the hook.
Things looked pretty bleak at that point. Until the players Steve Cohen pays the most to produce offense changed the tone of the game.
The “Fab Four” of Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso, batting in succession at the top of the lineup, combined to go 8-for-19 on this night, driving in six of the team’s seven runs and providing the late-inning heroics that stole the show.
First, it was Lindor giving the team hope.
Next, it was Alonso resetting the score.
Finally, it was Soto driving in the go-ahead run.
Add a perfect ninth from Edwin Díaz, and a perfect 10th, stranding the ghost runner, by Huascar Brazobán, and the comeback story was complete.
👋 MEET ALEX CARRILLO
The Mets are betting on velocity.
Two weeks after briefly promoting flamethrower Jonathan Pintaro, they are taking a flyer on Alex Carrillo, a burly right-hander who has reinvented himself in independent and international leagues to feature a 100-mph fastball that we caught a glimpse of last night.
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